Imprimer cette page

Report : JNIM in Kayes - Economic Fragility and Cross-Border Threat Spécial

© Timbuktu Institute © Timbuktu Institute

Download the full report

Kayes, Mali's first administrative region created by Law No. 60-3-A.L.R.S of June 7, 1960, occupies a strategic position both geographically and socio-politically. Located in the far west of the country, it is bordered by Senegal to the west, Mauritania to the north, Guinea to the south, and the Koulikoro region to the east. This region remains a strategic economic hub, contributing the second largest share of Mali's GDP after Bamako . Kayes is also a cultural and migratory crossroads in the Sahel sub-region and West Africa. This strategic position, reinforced by its proximity to neighboring countries and its role in cross-border migration dynamics, makes it a key area for Mali's stability and security in the West African region.

However, this position also exposes Kayes to complex challenges, marked by structural and cyclical conflicts that threaten social cohesion and security. These conflictual dynamics in the Kayes region are linked to historical, social, and economic factors, amplified by rapid contemporary developments. Among the structural conflicts, those related to descent-based slavery occupy a central place, particularly in municipalities such as Oussoubidiagna. The recurring tensions between the "lambé" (considered noble and believed to be the first settlers) and the Collectif des Sans-Papiers (CSP) reveal a social divide inherited from ancestral cultural practices and now exacerbated by modern influences, particularly through social media and community groups formed by diaspora communities.

These conflicts, sometimes marked by clashes, land expropriations, and a tendency to detain and use weapons , illustrate the persistence and socio-political and cultural weight of rigid social hierarchies and their negative impact on community peace and cohesion. Furthermore, conflicts between farmers and herders, which are frequent during the rainy season, are exacerbated by demographic pressure, transhumance , and increased competition for natural resources, particularly agricultural and pastoral land. These dynamics are complicated by circumstantial factors, such as the gradual spread of insecurity from northern and central Mali to the south, where the terrorist group JNIM (Jama'at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin) could exploit local frustrations to recruit locally and intensify tensions.

This note analyzes how JNIM is gradually weakening the resilience of a region that has long remained relatively outside its sphere of influence by waging a form of  economic "jihad" by targeting vital logistics routes the stated intention to impose blockades while strengthening control over economic flows. Similarly, JNIM's strategy based on a process of gradual destabilization and attacks on foreign economic interests will be reviewed. A final section will analyze the immediate and medium-term implications and consequences of this JNIM offensive on the security of Mali's neighboring countries, mainly Mauritania and Senegal, as well as the threat it poses to regional stability.