Timbuktu Institute Week 1 - March 2026

Togo is going through a period marked by complex trade-offs between security imperatives, diplomatic diversification and growing social expectations. The extension of the state of emergency in the Savanes region reflects the continuing jihadist threat on the northern borders, while Lomé is pursuing a strategy of international cooperation focused on community resilience and diplomatic openness. However, recent data on the population's economic and political perceptions reveal social unrest that could influence the country's internal balance.

Extension of the state of emergency in the Savanes region: an additional 12 months

On 27 February 2026, the Togolese National Assembly adopted the extension of the state of emergency in the Savanes region for a period of twelve months, starting on 13 March 2026. This measure, in force since June 2022, is presented as a necessary condition for economic stability and the protection of regional trade corridors. According to Colonel Hodabalo Awaté, Minister of Territorial Administration, ‘these prerogatives will be exercised in strict compliance with the rule of law.’ The renewal of the state of emergency for the fourth consecutive time raises questions about the normalisation of exceptional measures. While the cross-border terrorist threat is very real, reconciling security imperatives with respect for civil liberties remains a key challenge. The economic argument put forward, namely the protection of transit corridors, indicates that the interests of the port of Lomé are also at stake in this decision.

Community resilience: the World Bank evaluates its programmes

On 2 March 2026, a meeting between the Togolese government and the World Bank took place in Lomé to evaluate the first cycle of the Allowance for Prevention and Resilience (PRA-IDA20). Discussions focused on the prevention of violent extremism, the PURS programme and Operation Koundjoaré. This assessment is a pivotal moment in determining the direction of international funding in the Savanes region. The extension of PURS to the entire national territory demonstrates a desire to build on the achievements in conflict zones to strengthen national resilience. This multilateral approach contrasts with the trend toward disengagement observed in neighbouring AES countries.

Rapprochement between Togo and Belarus: a new diplomatic partnership

At the same time, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov was on a working visit to Lomé, where he was received by President Faure Gnassingbé. The visit resulted in the signing of a reciprocal visa exemption agreement for holders of diplomatic and service passports. The agreement aims to facilitate travel for officials and create an environment conducive to the development of institutional exchanges. This rapprochement with Minsk, a state under Western sanctions since 2020, is part of Togo's diplomatic diversification strategy. Unlike the ESA countries, which openly display their rapprochement with Moscow, Togo has adopted a position of equidistance. However, this partnership with Belarus, a close ally of Russia, could raise questions from Togo's traditional Western partners.

Perceptions of Russia and economic pessimism: the Togolese ‘malaise’

According to Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024-2025), nearly half of Togolese believe that Russia's economic and political influence on their country is positive. At the same time, more than 60% believe that their country is heading in the wrong direction, and three out of four Togolese live in moderate or severe poverty. The three main problems identified are unemployment, infrastructure and health. According to Hervé Akimocho, director of CROP, ‘the majority of Togolese believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction, that the economic situation is bad and that it has deteriorated over the last twelve months’. These data reveal a growing gap between the regime's diplomatic activism and the economic expectations of the population. The favourable perception of Russia, although lower than that of the ESA countries, reflects a fertile ground for narratives that offer an alternative to Western partnerships. Widespread economic pessimism is a medium-term political risk factor for the stability of Faure Gnassingbé's regime.