Source : Sahel weather June 2025

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Nigeria continues to face a security threat, particularly in its eastern region, where the army has stepped up its operations against terrorist groups. In recent air and ground raids, some sixty fighters have been killed, mainly in Borno and Yobe states, historic strongholds of Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP). These operations, such as "Bita", are aimed at containing the resurgence of violence and disrupting enemy logistical bases, in a context where military pressure remains an almost inescapable lever in the Nigerian state's security strategy.

Paradoxically, Nigeria's military efforts are undermined by dysfunctions within its security apparatus. More than thirty Nigerian military and police officers were recently arrested and imprisoned for arms and ammunition trafficking, corruption and complicity with criminal groups. This scandal highlights the fragility of defense institutions and systemic corruption, which weaken the effectiveness of security policies and not only indirectly fuel armed violence, but also strengthen their resilience while facilitating rebel groups' access to arms and ammunition.

On the environmental front, Nigeria, like many other countries, is at risk from climatic hazards that increase the vulnerability of its populations. Recent torrential rains, which caused catastrophic flooding and death as a result of climate change and anarchic urbanization, resulted in considerable loss of life and property in Mokwa. The town was hit by a torrential downpour on May 31, 2025, which left 200 dead and over 500 missing. This death toll is further exacerbated by human activities, as well as non-compliance with town planning regulations and poor environmental management at central government level. These factors combine to weaken local resilience mechanisms.

The political-security and structural conjuncture reveals a state in tension, whose foundations are weakened by corruption, bad governance and structural challenges. The fight against armed groups cannot be effective without far-reaching reform of security institutions and an integrated approach that takes account of the social factors fuelling instability in Nigeria.