Source : Sahel weather June 2025

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Guinea's political transition is entering a decisive phase, with recent developments suggesting a dynamic more geared towards consolidating military power than towards a genuine return to democracy. Although the transitional authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to respecting the electoral timetable, the events of June 2025 reveal certain contradictions likely to weaken confidence in the ongoing process.

Rewriting constitutional rules

On May 30, the National Transitional Council (CNT), which acts as Guinea's parliament, discreetly adopted - almost unanimously - a draft constitution that could soon become the country's new fundamental law. The text envisages extending the presidential term of office from five to seven years. According to CNT President Dr Dansa Kourouma, who spoke at a press conference in Conakry on June 29, this term is renewable once only. However, many Guineans remain concerned. Some fear that, without proper public debate or institutional opposition, this rule could later be changed to allow a president to remain in power without a clear limit. If the new constitution is approved in the September 21 referendum, General Mamadi Doumbouya, the current head of state, could stand in the December presidential election, even though the current charter prevents him from doing so.

The silence of the main national institutions and the lack of transparency surrounding the draft constitution point to a strategic effort to consolidate power under the guise of legal reform. On June 14, Mamadi Doumbouya announced the creation of the Direction Générale des Elections (DGE). This new body is responsible for organizing both the referendum and the presidential and legislative elections in December. 

However, its credibility as an independent and neutral institution is questionable, as it is entirely controlled by the executive, its management being appointed by presidential decree and its activities placed under the authority of a ministry. An institution created to guarantee the fairness of elections is itself subject to the influence of those in power, and risks being used as a tool for consolidating power.

Emerging alliances

At the same time, Guinea is striving to consolidate its regional and international partnerships. Recently, Guinea and Senegal signed a cooperation agreement covering several sectors, from security to culture. On June 17, General Doumbouya travelled to the Republic of Côte d'Ivoire to meet President Alassane Ouattara, notably to discuss regional security issues, in particular the advance of groups such as JNIM and the Islamic State in the Sahel. China also reaffirmed its support at a press conference in Conakry, where Chinese ambassador Huang Wei presented details of his mission to Guinea. New initiatives in the fields of infrastructure, health and public safety, testifying to a growing strategic partnership. Through these diplomatic efforts, Guinea is demonstrating its determination to reassert its sovereignty and consolidate its place in the regional and international arena. In the run-up to the referendum and elections, one crucial question remains: will it be the restoration of democracy in Guinea, or the legalization of an authoritarian regime ?