Source : Sahel weather July & august 2024 

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Almost three (03) years after the coup d'état in Guinea, the ruling military is still keeping a lid on the transition and the return of civilians to power. The military regime has agreed with ECOWAS to a 24-month transition period ending in December 2024, but is struggling to meet its commitments. Indeed, with a timetable of ten (10) points to be respected as a prerequisite for the return of civilians to power, by putting in place reforms for the country's stability and laying the foundations for a new social contract, so far only one point has been respected, namely "the drafting of a new constitution".                                                                                                                 

No sooner had the first draft of the new Constitution been published than the political class was divided by it. While the government defends a Constitution for "posterity", the opposition denounces a text "tailor-made" for the head of the junta, which could enable him to run for the supreme magistracy. These suspicions are in line with a series of concordant clues observed on the Guinean political scene for some time. These clues include the absence of transitional provisions, notably relating to article 46 of the transitional charter, in the draft constitution. This article stipulates that "the President and members of the National Committee of the Rally for Development (CNRD) may not stand as candidates in either the national or local elections that will be organized to mark the end of the Transition", before adding that "the aforementioned provision is not subject to any revision".

In addition, there is a desire to weaken the main opposition parties, which have bitterly competed with the former ruling party in all elections over the last ten years. Most of these political parties face "judicial persecution" or have seen their leaders forced into exile. Added to this is the restriction of freedom, enforced disappearances and arbitrary arrests of any dissenting voices who venture to criticize the management of public affairs by the transitional authorities. What's more, the large-scale infrastructure projects whose completion deadlines are tied to the end of the transition period - which some interpret as a way for the junta authorities to capitalize on a material balance sheet - are seen as a springboard for competing for the Guinean people's vote. Although the draft constitution introduces a number of new features, such as limiting presidential terms to two, and establishing a new parliament with two chambers (the National Assembly and the Senate), it has not aroused much enthusiasm.

The debate is polarized around the possible candidacy of Mamadou Doumbouya, head of the military junta and President of the transition. It is against this backdrop that the main opposition parties and civil society organizations, grouped within the Forces Vives de Guinée (FVG), are calling for the resumption of demonstrations to "protest against the junta, accused of wanting to seize power". To counter these demonstrations, the junta has taken new restrictive measures that are likely to prolong the tug-of-war between the government and the opposition.

Following a historic trial, the Guinean courts have just handed down a verdict that will be echoed across the continent, hailed by all human rights organizations. The court tried and convicted political leaders accused of "crimes against humanity" following the events of September 28, 2009. These crimes were perpetrated by the security forces to suppress a political demonstration organized by the opposition in Conakry, against the desire of the then head of the military junta to run in the presidential election. This repression marked a dark page in Guinea's modern history, but with this trial, the courts have delivered "a historic verdict", as Human Rights Watch put it.