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Dans une logique de consolidation du régime en place, le président de la transition du Tchad, Mahamat Idriss Déby, continue de prendre des mesures pour apaiser le climat sociopolitique. A cet effet, 380 rebelles du Front pour l’Alternance au Tchad (FACT), condamnés en premier ressort à perpétuité au mois de mars, ont été libérés le 5 avril par grâce présidentielle. Cette grâce survient sept mois après la remise en liberté d’une dizaine d’opposants ayant participé aux manifestations d’octobre 2022 contre le régime en place.

Par ailleurs, selon certains indices, le torchon semble brûler entre N’Djamena et Berlin. En effet, l’ambassadeur d'Allemagne au Tchad, Jean-Christian Gordon Kricke, a été sommé de quitter le territoire tchadien sous 48h dans un communiqué datant du 7 avril pour "attitude discourtoise" et "non-respect des usages diplomatiques".

En réalité, l’ambassadeur allemand est accusé d’ingérence dans les affaires intérieures du pays, en évoquant la lenteur du régime militaire à organiser des élections qui redonnent le pouvoir aux civils et en critiquant l’impunité dont jouit les autorités de transition à la suite des manifestations meurtrières de l’opposition en 2022 qui avaient fait plus d’une centaine de victimes. Par mesure de réciprocité, et n’ayant pas d’explications sur les faits reprochés, le ministère allemand a notifié dans un tweet avoir convoqué et prié l’ambassadrice tchadienne à Berlin, Mariam Ali Moussa, de quitter l’Allemagne. La tension n’est pas prête de redescendre même si les autorités tchadiennes tentent d’assurer que les relations entre les deux pays restent intactes.

Pendant ce temps, l’administration, les ONG et les journalistes intervenant dans la région du Lac, précisément dans le sud-ouest sont formels sur le fait que Boko Haram a changé de mode opératoire. Les combattants opéreraient la nuit en petits groupes afin d’éviter l’armée tchadienne. Ils auraient même changé de cibles : "Boko Haram a changé ses méthodes d'action". Ils ont commencé par "enlever les personnels de l'État ou des ONG pour les échanger contre des rançons", nous informe Adoum Mahamat Mbomi, préfet de Fouli, département situé dans la province du lac Tchad, "(...) Des jeunes garçons et des jeunes filles aussi. Parfois, ils s'échappent à Boko Haram. D'autres sont échangés contre rançons, et il y en a qui sont gardés comme combattants", poursuit-il.

Face à cette situation d’insécurité, combinée aux inondations qui ont frappé toute cette région et devant l’impossibilité de prendre en charge les 45000 personnes déplacées, les forces vives de la région du lac Tchad se sont réunies autour d’ "un Forum contre la nébuleuse Boko Haram", demandant au gouvernement de multiplier les bases et patrouilles militaires et d’armer les chasseurs du coin.

Plus loin dans le centre du pays, un conflit intercommunautaire fait 14 morts. Les faits se sont déroulés dans la localité de Mangalmé, Province de Guera dans le centre du Tchad. Un vol de bétail est à l’origine de ces violences. Le Gouverneur de la Province et les forces de défense et de sécurité ont réussi à appréhender les voleurs présumés. L’Action Humanitaire Africaine (AHA), ONG militant pour la défense des droits humains, demande une réponse du gouvernement tchadien face à ces tensions récurrentes. D’autant plus que, 11 personnes ont également été tuées suite à un autre vol de bétail, cette fois-ci dans le village de Mankadé situé dans la sous-préfecture de Laramanaye et 17 autres personnes tuées dans la zone de Logone orientale, dans un village. Sur le banc des accusés, figure des Tchadiens venus de Centrafrique.

Avec la coopération signalée des soldats centrafricains suite à la mise en place de "l’action militaire conjointe" par les états-majors des deux pays, une opération militaire inédite a été lancée par l’armée tchadienne qui a réussi à tuer une dizaine de voleurs. Le général assure que les soldats tchadiens sont rentrés au Tchad avec 30 prisonniers et 130 bœufs volés. Les présidents Faustin Archange Touadéra et son homologue Mahamat Idriss Déby "ont pris cette décision ensemble pour éradiquer les banditisme de chaque côté de la frontière", assure Bangui Fidèle Gouandjika, ministre conseiller spécial du président centrafricain à l’AFP.

Malgré "l’opération conjointe", une nouvelle attaque qualifiée de "massacre d’une grande cruauté" s’est produite le 17 mai au matin et a fait 26 victimes et plusieurs blessés tout près de la frontière centrafricaine et ce, sur le dos de l’armée tchadienne. Une opération militaire conjointe lancée par les militaires tchadiens et centrafricains contre des bases de ces "bandits" a permis de ramener les bœufs volés, et occasionné des blessés et des morts. Le ministre tchadien de la défense rassure que les populations vont enfin souffler grâce à cette opération militaire conjointe. Ses propos ont également été confirmés par le président centrafricain à Radio France International (RFI).

 

Source : Météo Sahel Timbuktu Institute

 

Il est vrai que la crise politique actuelle au Sénégal a beaucoup attiré l’attention des médias internationaux alors que les impératifs de sécurité, notamment aux frontières, occupent aussi l’agenda institutionnel.

Dans un contexte d’insécurité dans la sous-région, liée à l’extrémisme violent et au djihadisme, le Sénégal continue de sécuriser ses frontières pour empêcher l’intrusion de djihadistes sur son sol. Le président Macky Sall l’a rappelé ce 22 avril dans une interview accordée au Groupe Futurs Médias (GFM).

Affirmant que l’armée sénégalaise ne ménage pas ses efforts pour assurer la sécurité du pays non seulement à l’intérieur, mais aussi au niveau des frontières en déployant de gros moyens et en multipliant l’implantation des postes de contrôle sur les frontières dont les plus sensibles sont celles de la Mauritanie et du Mali touchés par l’insécurité.

Dans la foulée, non loin de ces pays frontaliers, à Matam, une alerte a été lancée par un vigile sur la présence de 18 terroristes à la frontière. D’après ses explications, il aurait vu des hommes armés et encagoulés. Cette annonce a créé une peur au niveau des populations de Matam et de ses environs.

Depuis cette alerte, les forces de défense et de sécurité disent être à pied d’œuvre pour élucider la présence de ces hommes armés. Dans le même temps, des doutes émergent sur la véracité de l’information donnée par le vigile. Néanmoins, l’armée sénégalaise reste engagée à assurer la sécurité du pays.

Source : Météo Sahel Timbuktu Institute

Depuis 2021, les forces béninoises ont enregistré une vingtaine d’incursions djihadistes, venant de la partie partie frontalière du Burkina Faso, pays très touché par les attaques. Cela montre l’urgence face à la menace persistante du djihadisme dans la sous-région.

Préconisant la méthode préventive impliquant les communautés, les forces armées béninoises ont lancé une campagne de recrutement de jeunes âgés de 18 à 30 ans afin de les former d’abord sur les techniques de sécurisation et de défense puis procéder à un déploiement, avec l’accompagnement des forces armées, dans les zones où les tentatives d’incursions des djihadistes sont notables.

Dans cette lutte contre le terrorisme, le Bénin est accompagné par des partenaires notamment les États-Unis d’Amérique qui ont prévu de débloquer une aide d’une valeur de cent millions de dollars qui va s’étaler sur dix ans, pour les pays du Golfe de Guinée comme le Bénin, la Côte d’Ivoire et le Togo, menacés par l’extension du djihadisme qui sévit dans le Sahel. Cette annonce de responsables américains en date du 7 avril dernier fait suite à la visite, en mars dernier, de la vice-présidente américaine Kamala Harris au Ghana dans le cadre du renforcement des liens diplomatiques de Washington avec l’Afrique. Ce soutien a également pour but d’empêcher la progression des mercenaires du groupe privé russe Wagner dans les pays du Sahel.

D’un autre côté, le président béninois Patrice Talon a reçu son homologue rwandais Paul Kagame à l’occasion d’une visite d’État durant le week-end du 14 au 16 avril. Au menu des discussions : le renforcement de l’économie et la lutte contre le djihadisme. Dans cette coopération militaire, il est notamment prévu que Kigali apporte son soutien logistique à Cotonou et participe au déploiement conjoint de troupes dans le nord du Bénin, touché par des attaques. Une opération lourde de risques d’après certains analystes, doutant des capacités d’adaptation des forces rwandaises aux réalités complexes du Nord du Bénin.

Source : Météo Sahel Timbuktu Institute

L’efficacité dans la lutte contre l’extrémisme violent et le terrorisme requiert la mutualisation des efforts des pays de la sous-région. Dans cette optique, les autorités nigériennes privilégient la voie diplomatique afin de porter le combat dans les instances internationales, mais aussi dans les institutions régionales. En effet, le 3 avril, le président de l’Assemblée nationale nigérienne, Seyni Oumarou, devant les parlementaires ivoiriens, a proposé la mise en place d’un nouvel organe interparlementaire du G5 Sahel, afin que les parlementaires d’horizons divers de la sous-région puissent s’organiser ensemble dans la lutte contre le terrorisme.

Cet appel à l'union entre les pays du Littoral et ceux du Sahel, pour une meilleure coordination face à l’insécurité est salutaire. En effet, les difficultés en termes de coopération au sein des organes sous-régionaux qui luttent pour la sécurité, à l’image du G5 dont le Mali, ont fait que l’un des principaux acteurs se retire à cause d’une possible opposition de certains États membres à ce que le Mali ne prenne la présidence tournante du G5-Sahel.

De plus, le 24 avril, un autre incident survient suite à une déclaration du général nigérien Mahamadou Tarka dit Abou sur le Burkina Faso et le Mali. Le Président de la Haute autorité de consolidation de la paix (HACP) a déclaré que ces pays se sont détournés de certains partenaires dans la lutte contre le terrorisme.

La réaction ne s’est pas faite attendre du côté des autorités burkinabè à travers un communiqué qui précise que le général nigérien a "un besoin avéré de mise à niveau sur l’évolution du contexte sécuritaire actuel au Burkina Faso, dans le Sahel, et sur l’histoire des deux pays".

Source : Météo Sahel Timbuktu Institute

La dernière attaque terroriste du mois de février où 31 personnes ont été enlevées puis égorgées dans le village de Tola et de Gningou, au nord du Togo, est d’un effroi sans précédent. Attribuée au groupe de soutien à l’islam et aux musulmans (GSIM - JNIM), elle avait suscité l’émotion mais aussi l’indignation de la population au sujet de la stratégie de la discrétion optée par le gouvernement à propos de la menace djihadiste. Cette démarche sonne comme un aveu d’échec face à une montée fulgurante de l’extrémisme violent et du terrorisme dans les pays côtiers d’Afrique de l’ouest. Pour les dirigeants togolais, il était impératif de réagir contre la montée de la violence extrémiste débordant de plus en plus de l’épicentre sahélien. Étant frontalier du Burkina Faso en proie à des attaques terroristes, le Togo est victime d’incursions djihadistes sur son territoire notamment dans la région des Savanes, située dans l’extrême nord du pays. Depuis 2021, des groupes armés y commettent des attaques. Fort de ce constat, les autorités togolaises semblent vouloir rectifier le tir. 

En effet, le président Faure Gnassingbé a révélé ce 27 avril, date marquant l’anniversaire de l’indépendance de son pays, lors d’une interview, que les attaques djihadistes au nord du Togo ont tué 140 personnes. Pour faire face à cette menace grandissante, le chef de l’État prévoit de mettre en place « une stratégie à trois volets» qui consiste d’abord à se défendre par les armes, ensuite promouvoir la déradicalisation ou la prévention de la radicalisation, et enfin priver les terroristes du recrutement des jeunes utilisés comme combattants. 

Toujours concernant les stratégies de lutte contre le terrorisme, le parlement togolais a prolongé de 12 mois l’état d’urgence sécuritaire dans la région des Savanes, qui avait été décrété par l’exécutif, en juin 2022. Ce régime exceptionnel est mis en place pour permettre aux forces de défense et de sécurité ainsi qu’aux autorités locales de cette région, de prendre des décisions urgentes et adéquates pour lutter contre la montée de l’extrémisme violent et le terrorisme. 

Source : Météo Sahel Timbuktu Institute

La Météo Sahel revient pour les mois d’avril et mai sur l’actualité sécuritaire, sociale et politique. Pour ce nouveau numéro, neuf pays de l’espace sahélien et de l’Afrique de l’ouest sont couverts par le Timbuktu Institute. La situation actuelle dans la sous-région est dominée par la multiplication des attaques terroristes notées ces dernières semaines, provoquant de nombreuses pertes en vies humaines, blessés et déplacés. En même temps, les crises politiques viennent se greffer dans le lot Toutefois, les dirigeants continuent de mener des initiatives pour lutter contre le djihadisme malgré une actualité politique chargée avec des perspectives lourdes de risques.

Télécharger la Météo Sahel du Timbuktu Institute

Recently, Timbuktu Institute (The African Center for Peace Studies) in collaboration with Institut Français de Dakar held a civic conversation for young and vulnerable groups on the theme, ''YOUTH AND THE MEDIA : BETWEEN COMMITMENT AND CIVIC RESPONSIBILITY. The forum which was held in the village of Kaninlai in the West Coast Regions brought together students and teachers from St. Antony's Basic Cycle school, members of the media and a cross section of the local populace resident in Kanilai and other villages in the catchment area.   

The forum sensitizes students to social media’s negative and positive academic impacts. Social media can benefit students’ education in terms of research, but it can also negatively affect them by distracting them, disrupting their day-to-day activities, spreading rumors, unrealistic views of other people’s lives but also to some extent, it could lead to vulnerable groups fallen prey to extremist and radical groups operating in the sub-region.

Adji Awa Samb, Head of Cooperation and Regional Projects at Timbuktu Institute, said it is necessary to sensitize students because they are vulnerable and have no knowledge of cyber security. She told the forum that unregulated internet usage could be dangerous for young people because scammers do not distinguish between young and old. “I am delighted to have you all here. This shows that you are interested in the topic. Do not allow yourself to be distracted by social activities. Stay away from it as much as possible, but if you cannot, please use it wisely. You are all young and have a future to build. Take your education seriously, study hard and do research and always be open to your parents and teachers for discussions on issues that affect you and your education”, she opined.

Momodou Lamin Jaiteh, Kaba Communication’s manager, calls for constructive internet use. He urged the students to be aware of misinformation and disinformation and its dangers to society. He emphasized on the different role of traditional media and the new media (social media). He said in the new media, everyone is a journalist whereas in the traditional media, there are rules and regulations know as gate keepers. “In a democracy, you need the information to make informed choices, but you should not allow yourself to spread false news”, he added.

Gallow Ceesay, a Teacher at St Anthony’s Basic Cycle School, said the interface could have been better than now, saying social media consumes students’ time.

He warned students to be aware of dirty websites, scammers, and imposters on the internet while encouraging them to always scrutinize information before sharing and desist from sharing misinformation and disinformation. “Always compare the information with your teachers and be adaptive and conscious of analyzing posts”, he advised them.

Ousman Kujabi, Village Development Committee Chairman of Kanilai, also advised the students to use the internet wisely as it can improve their quest for knowledge. He said young people need to be counseled, thus calling on parents to monitor their children’s online activities.

Alpha Jallow, the Communication and Media Consultant for Timbuktu Institute, said their engagement with the students on youth access to the internet is because some of them can be brainwashed by individuals or organizations who might be working outside The Gambia by manipulating them in exchange for something.«We believe if we start sensitizing them now on these issues, there is a possibility that they will not fall as victims.”

One participant intimated to me that this kind of sensitization campaign on the usage of social media will go a long way in helping youths and other vulnerable groups to harness more knowledge and also differentiate what is 'Good news and Fake news'

The Regional Director of Timbuktu Institute, the African Center for Peace studies Dr. Bakary Sambe who have not attended the forum in Gambia due to other engagements, expressed delight and thanked all the participants for a very successful event. He however promised to organize more events in The Gambia in the near future.

The seminar concluded with interactive discussions with students as well as contributions from stakeholders.

 

Timbuktu Institute

On Thursday June 16, Timbuktu Institute presented a regional study on "Islam and Islamism in West Africa", in partnership with the Abidjan-based Académie Internationale de Lutte contre le Terrorisme (AILCT).

While such a subject may seem daunting to some, the study is in line with the need to move away from a security vision focused on the immediate and on emergency management, and to reflect on the long term. The first aim of the study was to distinguish between a religion that is often wrongly stigmatized and the "manipulation of religious symbols for political and ideological motives by a tiny minority seeking to justify their violent discourse, which the majority of Muslims reject and even fall victim to", explains Dr. Bakary Sambe, who coordinated the study with Dr. Lassina Diarra.

It is true that terrorism has become a regional security threat in recent decades. It often operates through radicalization "from below", diverting the attention of decision-makers and experts from its method of penetration and conquest from above.

Yet the objective remains the same: the destruction of the state entity through terrorist violence, or its gradual destructuring by undermining, through delegitimization, the democratic and republican foundations of the region's fragile states. In the case of West Africa, these initially evolved through the use of extremist ideologies stemming from political Islam, embodied by Salafism or Wahhabism, and other social pathologies. Until recently, the prevailing perception of sub-Saharan Islam as free from the influences of the Arab-Muslim world had led to a blurring of its specific features to the point of isolating it from developments affecting other societies.

In the same way that the spread of terrorism in North Africa had not sufficiently alerted us to the need to prevent the epicenter from spilling over into the Sahel, West African states had long maintained a dichotomy between the sub-Saharan and Maghreb spaces, neglecting the weight of interactions between increasingly transnational religious spaces and actors. Long locked into the "Algerian" paradigm of an ideological kinship between jihadism and religion, decision-makers showed little interest in the political expression of the instrumentalization of religion in the context of projects aimed, among other things, at challenging the republican form of the modern state in this part of the continent.

Manipulation of religious symbols and Islamo-nationalism

This study has attempted to show that, beyond its violent expression in terrorism, which is the focus of attention today, political Islam ultimately sets itself the same objectives: to control society, to destructure the State, through a slow but well-considered method of undermining its foundations and legitimacy. The long years of state disengagement since structural adjustment have fostered the rise of religious organizations, which have gradually replaced the state, eventually competing with it in key sectors such as education, social work and youth policy. States are faced with imposed dualities in regal domains, suffering from a deficit often filled by Islamist movements. Political Islam, with its Salafist and, to a lesser extent, traditional currents, is becoming a socio-political issue in the sense that it relies on the manipulation of religious symbols and forms of contestation of state policy, especially with the clear retreat of left-wing ideologies. Today, Islamism has taken over urban centers, rural areas and even university campuses, feeding on the instrumentalization of religion as an effective lever for mobilization, as well as contesting "Western hegemony" to the point of allying itself with former revolutionary tendencies that have become nationalist.

Challenging the socio-political order

To gain a better understanding of this evolution, the study retraces the itinerary of Islamism, its currents, its expansion strategies and, above all, its conquest of elites, including political elites, using the case of West African countries to show how the region's states are struggling to grasp this dynamic, which is less visible than the terrorist phenomenon. Research has also focused on strategies for challenging the socio-political order, without neglecting the explanatory variable of the ideological make-up of West African terrorist groups, which many experts on extremism attempt to question, often simply because of a lack of analytical grids.

In considering new regional trends and prospects for Islamism in West Africa, much attention has been paid to the emergence of socialization spaces in competition with public power, which can lead to a rise in religious conflict or the instrumentalization of denominational allegiances, such as the feared clash between radical Islam and certain evangelical currents. The same applies to the link between the growing power of conquering Salafist tendencies and the risk of ethnic-religious tensions in certain countries, as well as to trends towards a gradual "normalization" of Salafism, far from the perception that "Western" analysts may have of it.

Strategy to delegitimize West African states:

Salafist currents are increasingly able to shed their "imported" character, despite the action of the Gulf States, and are establishing themselves more and more as an "endogenous" reality that is also part of the politically buoyant issue of challenging the West and defending "societal values". Added to this is the increasingly pronounced demand for greater representation of religious elites and values in the management of the state and public affairs, promoting a certain "Islamic morality" which, from their point of view, could come to the rescue of secularized governance deemed out of touch with local realities. An ongoing process of delegitimization of the state that should attract greater attention and research interest. 

This awareness of the need for a paradigm shift is particularly important in a regional context marked by a certain fragility of institutions and social equilibria, where all states face the complex challenges of having to build national resilience in an increasingly unstable regional environment.

 

For Bakary Sambe, Regional Director of the Timbuktu institute, this demand for departure "without delay" is in line with the communication of the transitional authorities since they came to power: "The transitional authorities have been following the same logic since they came to power. It's an important part of their communication to always show that there are actors and organizations that are against Mali's interests. After France, during operation Barkhane, it was ECOWAS's turn. I think the main thrust of this communication is to find "enemies of Mali" every time.

According to this observer of the Malian political scene for over twenty years, "This populist discourse works very well with the population in the midst of an economic and security crisis. So, after France, ECOWAS and then the Ivorian soldiers, it's Minusma's turn. It's a binary schema that always sets Mali against the others.

The political context may even have a lot to do with this stance, which comes as no surprise to some observers: "What's more, we're currently in a crucial period where the Constitution is being debated, as well as future elections and the referendum on Sunday June 18. So the authorities needed to address the issue in an incisive way. The aim is to flatter Malian pride and brandish sovereignty," recalls Bakary Sambe.

A political communication strategy on the part of Bamako ?

For him, "the authorities are at a very advanced stage of the transition process, so it was necessary to tackle the real issues, such as the long-promised institutional reforms. That's why it's so opportune for them to wave the red rag of the departure of the Minusma, a mission that has become an easy target. Moreover, the use of the word "departure without delay" was well chosen, to send a message to the population whose pride they want to whip, even if it seems almost impossible to see such troops leave the country so quickly".

Despite the facade of unanimity, under the influence of social networks, the regional director of the Timbuktu Institute even explains that there are two opposing visions in Mali on the question of security cooperation, "there has always been a clear difference in discourse between, on the one hand, Bamako, its young urbanites, present on social networks, and on the other, the people who experience insecurity on a daily basis, such as in Ménaka, Gao or Timbuktu. The perception of cooperation is totally different, but in the end, the most audible discourse is that of the people who are least concerned by insecurity, but who flood the social networks".

Sambe believes that there is a "deliberate confusion" aimed at "masking the failure on the security front". For him, "the recent events in Moura were an illustration of the failure in terms of security", he continues: "It's often forgotten, but the two priority missions of the Minusma are to support the implementation of the peace agreement and the transition, and then to support the restoration and stabilization of the center of the country. So it wasn't a mandate to fight terrorism in the traditional way, but rather to consolidate peace. To make the link with failure on the security front is therefore a fine subterfuge intended for local and popular consumption".

Why the fixation on MINUSMA ?

"In reality, MINUSMA is a symbol in the discourse. It's a symbol of a foreign body, an external actor, which doesn't give the transitional authorities a free hand to guarantee security. This is the logic presented to the population. We saw the same thing with Barkhane, despite all its faults", explains Dr. Bakary Sambe.

But the researcher makes no secret of his skepticism about the sustainability of peacekeeping missions if they persist in their current form: "The longer we go on, the more peacebuilding missions lose their credibility. They therefore become the ideal target for criticism in terms of inefficiency. The format of these missions clearly needs to be reviewed. Over time, they have shown their limitations everywhere".

For Bakary Sambe, however, there remains the risk of a deterioration in security conditions in Mali and even in the region: "Today, when Mali is struggling to secure even the outskirts of Bamako - as demonstrated by the attack on Kati, the strategic heart of the regime - and even if the Minusma had a minor role to play in this respect, this required departure would constitute a real threat for the region. I'm not sure that those demanding such a departure are capable of securing the vast expanses of Mali bordering other countries under security pressure" 

After MINUSMA, what about Wagner ?

"I don't think Wagner will be able to play this stabilizing role," warns the researcher. "We've seen their blunders and exactions against civilian populations. The problem in Mali, especially in the center, is a communal one. Neither the FAMa nor Wagner will be able to solve it if they persist in their current strategy, which plays into the hands of terrorist groups posing as protectors of ostracized communities. The famous rise in power of the FAMAs, with the support of Wagner, has been against the communities and has had little effect on the ability of terrorist groups to cause harm".

And Sambe insists on the need for a change of strategy on the part of Bamako and its partners. According to him, "the Malian state needs to engage in dialogue with all the children of Mali, as it has a legitimate right to do, to stop stigmatizing certain communities and to initiate reconciliation. But we seem to be so far off the mark," he concludes.

Timbuktu Institute

 

NB: (Some extracts are from the interview with TV5 Monde)

In this interview, in which he answers questions from Célian Macé, a journalist with Libération, Dr Bakary Sambe, a specialist in religious issues in the Sahel, analyses the violent crisis that Senegal has been going through since the conviction of opposition politician Ousmane Sonko, and the traditional mediations being used to resolve it. Director of the Timbuktu Institute, Dr Bakary Sambe is a professor at the Centre for the Study of Religions at Gaston Berger University in Saint-Louis. He looks at the characteristics of this crisis, marked by a "new militant phenomenon", and the central role of traditional religious mediation in political conflicts in Senegal.

Are we witnessing a new cycle in the history of Senegalese political crises? Or is this a new confrontation?

The history of Senegal since independence has been marked by political crises, some of them very severe: the Dia-Senghor opposition of 1962, the student revolt of 1968, the post-electoral crisis of 1988, the bloody demonstration of 16 February 1994, the great protest of 2011... Most of these events were linked to an electoral deadline. The current crisis in Senegal is obviously linked to next year's presidential election. But it is characterised by an interweaving of the political and the judicial. This was the case with Khalifa Sall and Karim Wade [two opponents ruled out of the presidential race after being convicted, editor's note], but this time it's a matter of morality. In a highly religious society like Senegal, this is important and has made the situation explosive.

Can the national dialogue initiated by the government calm the situation?

At this stage, Pastef, Ousmane Sonko's party, is not taking part. There is a gap between the traditional political class, such as the opposition leaders who have accepted the dialogue, and Sonko's movement, which is outside the traditional Senegalese political socialisation framework. It mobilises young, urban people who are immersed in a sovereignist regional discourse, connected to the diaspora, fond of social networks, for whom hashtags have replaced placards. This is a new militant phenomenon, far removed from the practices and cultural substratum of parties, unions, associations or even social movements. They don't have the same codes. The demonstrations are more violent, sometimes turning to looting. No one was identifiable: for the first time, there was no recognisable figure in the street. The opposition saw this as a genuine popular uprising, while the authorities saw it as a dangerous riotous phenomenon.

Have religious leaders, who usually act as mediators in times of crisis, become obsolete?

I don't think so. But in this crisis, because of its nature, mediation is extremely prudent and discreet. In Senegal's history, the heads of the brotherhoods have always been the last bastions of peace and stability. Whether we like it or not, the most powerful civil society here are the religious! Back in 2021, when Sonko's arrest sparked off violent demonstrations in Dakar [killing at least 10 people], the Cadre unitaire de l'islam au Sénégal, which brings together representatives of all the currents of Islam in the country, calmed the situation by appealing for calm. They are now going back and forth, and have published a text calling for "renewed dialogue between all those involved". They are also testing the receptiveness of these new militants, who are no doubt less sensitive to the traditional networks of influence of confederate Islam.

What is the significance of President Macky Sall's visit to the Caliph General of the Mourides, Serigne Mountakha Mbacké, on Monday evening?

It's not unusual for the President of the Republic to meet the Caliph General at night. Opponents say he went to seek support because he is in trouble. On the contrary, supporters of the Head of State and analysts see it as a gesture of respect and wisdom at a critical time for the country. If the national dialogue were endorsed by the religious leaders, it would be a very favourable decision for the government. Macky Sall is a master of symbols and codes. He knows that in Senegalese culture, the person who is open to dialogue is always better regarded. Extremist positions have never flourished in our country. Macky Sall has also announced that he will speak on 25 June, at the end of the national dialogue. This is an interesting signal: it shows that he is following his own agenda, which is not dictated by the opposition or the street, and at the same time this deadline leaves the door open to Pastef: it is not too late to join the discussion. Macky Sall appears to be holding out his hand.

Source : Liberation.fr