Source : Sahel weather September 2024 

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Political events in Guinea continue to be marked by the celebration of anniversaries, firstly the military's three years in power, and secondly the 15th commemoration of the September 28, 2009 massacre. The transition has just celebrated its third anniversary, on September 5, but until then its extension seems more likely than its end, initially scheduled for the end of 2024. Although some voices are calling for an end to the transition, the junta remains impassive to these calls.

“ A transition must necessarily be limited in time. Even a mandate conferred by the people has a limited duration ”, is how a member of the National Transition Council (CNT) expressed his offence. The opposition, for its part, denounces this slippage in the timetable as a failure on the part of the CNT, which is incapable of fulfilling its commitments. To this end, it reiterates its opposition to any attempt to prolong the transition and, at the same time, to the junta leader's desire to be a candidate in the next presidential election; hence the call for mobilization by the Forces Vives de la Guinée (FVG) and certain political leaders. The military regime seems to be in an awkward position in view of all the voices raised against a transition beyond the duration agreed with the partners, even if the regime has never hidden its desire to remain in power until 2025.

Diplomatic advances or a return to international confidence?

Earlier this year, the news site Africa Intelligence revealed that junta emissaries were lobbying between Paris and Berlin to secure their support for extending the transition. While it is difficult to say with certainty that these diplomatic efforts will bear fruit, we do know that Guinea's diplomatic efforts to rejoin the Organisation Internationale de Francophonie (OIF) have been successful. Suspended from the organization following the coup d'état in September 2021, Guinea was reinstated at an extraordinary general assembly chaired by the OIF secretary general. At the same time, Guinean justice remains under the spotlight.

After an “extraordinary” trial hailed by human rights organizations, the question of reparations for victims remains central in a context where civic and democratic space in Guinea is shrinking as a result of measures taken by the junta to stifle all forms of protest. The trial continues to keep Guinean citizens on the edge of their seats, especially as one of the main defendants in the massacre, Claude Pivi, was arrested at the border between Liberia and Guinea, after his spectacular escape from Conakry's central prison.