Source : Sahel weather October 2024 

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Following the dissolution of the National Assembly by Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and the announcement of early parliamentary elections to be held on November 17, 2024, the election campaign was officially launched on Sunday October 27 at 00:00 and ran until November 15. In all, forty-one lists of coalitions and political parties competed for 165 seats in the National Assembly, with the crucial issue at stake for the ruling party. “I am dissolving the National Assembly to ask the sovereign people for the institutional means that will enable me to give substance to the systemic transformation I have promised them”, declared the Senegalese President. The coalitions and political parties each set off on their campaigns with a well-defined itinerary. Four alliances in particular were set to compete for control of the National Assembly. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, leader of the Pastef les Patriotes party and head of the list, had to contend with other coalitions before triumphing at the end of these elections by winning the maximum number of seats in the National Assembly. Pastef's decision to stand alone in the elections was a political ploy by Ousmane Sonko to test his popularity with the Senegalese people, especially as this election campaign was, for him, fundamental to the future of the Pastef “Project”. Among the opposition coalitions, the “Sam sa Kaddu” coalition stood out as the one that attracted the most attention and was seen as being able to tip the balance despite its results falling far short of its leaders' expectations. It was made up of Anta Babacar Ngom, Pape Djibril Fall and Khalifa Sall, all of whom were presidential candidates backed by the Parti d'Unité, de Rassemblement (PUR), Taxawu Sénégal, and Bougane Gueye's Gëm Sa Bopp, an emerging leader. The latter was arrested and given aone-month suspended prison sentence for having tried to break through the gendarmerie roadblock and travel to Bakel to support flood victims. As a reminder, the south-east of the country, in particular Bakel and Kidira, was placed under orange alert, with thousands of people displaced by flooding due to the overflowing of the Senegal River and the Falémé, one of its main tributaries.

Meanwhile, Amadou Bâ, Macky Sall's former Prime Minister, was at the helm of the Jam ak NJariñ coalition, supported by Aminata Mbengue Ndiaye of the Socialist Party. The Liberals were in the Tàkku Wàttu Sénégal coalition without Idrissa Seck, but with Abdoulaye Wade and Macky Sall. This raises the question of whether the hatchet has been definitively buried between Karim Wade's PDS and Macky Sall. As head of the Takku wallu Sénégal list, Macky Sall signed his return to the political scene at a time when the question of his almost improbable trial before the High Court of Justice is being raised by certain Pastef militants: "We have the means to make him pay; we're going to make him pay!He's done some extremely serious things, and they're there. The documentation is there. The people he dealt with are there. The people he may have sacrificed are there; and these are the people who will testify against him, these are the people who will produce conclusive documents against him!”, threatened the CEO of the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations (CDC), Fadilou Keita.

The provisional results of the legislative elections, which are currently uncontested, put Ousmane Sonko's Pastef well ahead, with the prospect of an overwhelming majority with no real counterweight in the Hemicycle. The new regime thus has all the cards in its hand to govern and roll out the vision 2050 presented a few days before the official opening of the campaign.

Sonko-Diomaye: a duo threatened by duality? Between fantasy and political reality

The question observers are asking is whether the breakaway scenario advocated by Bassirou Diomaye Faye's regime is realistic. Indeed, the Vision Sénégal 2050 project was presented by the President of the Republic Bassirou Diomaye Faye and his Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko on October 14, 2024 at the Abdou Diouf International Conference Center in Diamniadio. To paraphrase the authorities, this ambitious project symbolizes a rooted youth that is looking to the future with greater serenity. Doubts about the realism of the “rupture” can be put to rest by the renegotiation of oil and gas contractswith multinationals, begun at the start of the second half of the year by the President of the Republic, who has set up a strategic contract review committee made up of senior Senegalese government officials. Meanwhile, the $1.8 billionloan that Senegal agreed with the IMF in June 2024 has apparently still not been cashed in, and this could hamper the Vision Sénégal 2050 project. All the more so as an American rating agency has placed Senegal under watch after the audit of Senegalese public finances presented at a press conference by Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and Economy Minister Abdourahmane Sarr, who reportedly described a worrying situation in Senegal's finances attributable to the former regime led by Macky Sall.

In addition, Senegal remains more than ever confronted with the phenomenon of irregular emigration. On October 21, a pirogue carrying 150 migrants reportedly disappeared in the Atlantic. Despite the support of exile aid associations, the boat had been missing for at least 10 days.