Source : Sahel weather Novembre 2024 

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In Côte d'Ivoire, Guillaume Soro's aura seems to have diminished considerably in recent years, despite the fact that he was a major figure in the country's political life in the early 2010s. The former president of the National Assembly has been keeping a low profile since his exile on charges of “undermining state security” in 2019. The leader of the Générations et Peuples Solidaires (GPS) movement is increasingly weakened politically by the massive departures of his lieutenants to the current government. Can he bounce back and restore his image on the political scene to its former glory? In any case, he still has some way to go to position himself in this rather turbulent political arena. 

Charles Blé Goudé, for his part, has also been in the news in Côte d'Ivoire during this controversial period of pre-campaigning for the next presidential election. In an interview with France 2024, he spoke of his candidacy for the upcoming presidential elections. “I have never hidden my ambition to lead Côte d'Ivoire”, said the former youth minister under Gbagbo. He also took the opportunity to ask the current president to create the conditions for those who wish to participate to ease the tense political climate of recent months. He was referring to his former boss Laurent Gbagbo, whose candidacy remains uncertain. As a reminder, they have all been acquitted by this international judicial organization, but the sword of Damocles still hangs over his head with the 20-year sentence for which he is seeking an amnesty.

In this political climate, political players continue to call for a frank political dialogue as a prelude to the forthcoming elections. The fifth phase was held after the events of 2020, bringing together the government, political players and civil society to discuss ways of strengthening peace and social cohesion. One of the main recommendations was a commitment by the players to refrain from violence in the process of acceding to the supreme magistracy. At a press conference on November 1, the Union Démocratique et Citoyenne called for a sixth phase of dialogue to “take stock of the implementation of the recommendations of the previous phase” and “envisage new recommendations” for the forthcoming elections. 

The members of this organization took the opportunity to open the debate on the reform of the Independent Electoral Commission and the revision of the electoral rolls in order to prevent political conflicts. At the same time, Alassane Ouattara's candidacy continues to sow controversy within the political class and public opinion. Members of the opposition group “Les Acteurs de la Nouvelle Côte d'Ivoire” are demanding that Ouattara withdraw his candidacy for the forthcoming elections. According to them, ADO should prevent the worst from happening again by retiring. 

Political tensions ...
Are we heading for the arrest of opposition leader Tidjane Thiam, as some are whispering? In any case, rumors are flying around the capital that the businessman is about to be arrested for disturbing the peace. The reason for this is that, for several weeks now, the candidate for the next presidential election has been making outreach visits to raise public awareness of the need to register to vote and to consolidate his electorate. He continues to swell his ranks within the party, and it's clear that his “rival” Billon is increasingly isolated. On November 6, businessman Maurice Guikahué met with Tidjane Thiam to discuss party issues in the run-up to the upcoming presidential election. For some time now, the former Minister of Commerce has been taking every opportunity to pillory the party's positions. Despite the majority's support for his challenger Thiam, he still maintains his candidacy, which he declared on October 25 and which he considers timely. Jean-Louis Billon has been summoned to appear before the PDCI disciplinary council for “undermining the unity and interests of the party” and “insubordination to party decisions”. He is due to appear at party headquarters on December 3 to explain the charges against him to his peers.

Meanwhile, the issue of Laurent Gbagbo's inclusion on the electoral roll continues to dominate political news in Côte d'Ivoire. In support of their leader, the youth of the Parti des Peuples Africaines-Côte d'Ivoire (Ppa-CI) have announced a mobilization tour to demand that he be reinstated on the electoral rolls. These young people have decided to take up the republican fight alongside all their comrades, “using legal and democratic means”. 

Gbagbo and France reconnected....
One fact has attracted particular attention this month: the former head of state appears to have reconnected with France, a line of dialogue that had been officially severed since the events of 2010. On November 10, he was received by ambassador Jean-Christophe Belliard for two rounds of talks on the country and the upcoming presidential election, the Sahel and perceptions of France, according to sources close to the embassy. The former colony has begun discussions with the major players in the life of the nation. Laurent Gbagbo has promised Ivorians to set up a truth and justice commission, as Nelson Mandela did after the painful aparthied period. Once elected, he hopes to encourage dialogue between Ivorians to consolidate peace and national harmony. Members of his party went to the headquarters of the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) to plead for his reinstatement on the lists.

Terrorism in the North
On the security front, an operation carried out by the defense and security forces on the night of November 9-10 attracted a great deal of attention. A large arsenal of weapons was seized near Diawala, on the border with Burkina Faso. This event worried many observers at a time when relations between the two countries are not at their best, and Burkina's security situation is deteriorating daily. Côte d'Ivoire has suffered terrorist attacks in the past, notably the Grand Bassam attack claimed by the group Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The threat remains persistent in view of terrorist attacks in neighboring countries. Meanwhile, six suspected members of the Islamic State group have reportedly been arrested in Abidjan, including Syrians and Iraqis. According to sources, these individuals had connections with accomplices based in Antananarivo to commit acts of violence in the Sahel and Europe. The two countries succeeded in dismantling this jihadist network, which was planning to carry out an attack during the Paris Olympics. The FDS were assisted by US and French intelligence.

On November 13, Côte d'Ivoire and the United States signed two memorandums of understanding to strengthen security cooperation in the face of current challenges. Although Uncle Sam's country is keeping a low profile in many Sahelian states, it continues to provide military support to Côte d'Ivoire, which is taking the threat very seriously. According to its ambassador based in Abidjan, “Our aim is to continue as we did yesterday: to strengthen our security partnership cooperation between the United States and Côte d'Ivoire”. As part of the drive to combat fragility in the northern border areas of the country, a budget of 11.1 billion FCFA has been earmarked for the 3rd phase.