Source : Sahel weather Novembre 2024 

Download the full Sahel weather report

In Guinea, the possibility of ex-Colonel Mamadi Doumya, who was promoted to army general during the celebrations for the 66th anniversary of the Guinean army, standing as a candidate in the next presidential election is now being debated. While several leading figures in the transition have declared their support for his candidacy, many Guineans are wondering about the consequences of not respecting the transition oath. After the 2021 coup d'état, the junta authorities brandished article 65 of the Transition Charter, which stipulates that “members of the National Transition Council may not stand as candidates in local or national elections to mark the end of the Transition”, to give themselves popular legitimacy. But three years on, the picture is very different. According to the Guinean press, since mid-September, several events, attracting thousands of people, have been organized in the name of the junta leader in the country's provinces, in order to prepare his future candidacy. The “Général Mamadi Doumbouya” soccer tournament is part of this dynamic.

Faced with this pro-junta push for the General's candidacy, the opposition in turn mobilized against the measures taken by the Ministry of Territorial Administration to place political parties “under observation”, among other decisions. The media is also increasingly controlled by the transition regime, and human rights are severely restricted. The “placing under observation” of certain opposition parties, particularly Cellou Daleine Diallo's UFDG and Sidya Touré's UFR, is justified by the ministerial authority, among other “shortcomings”, by the fact that for several years, these two parties have not organized a congress. These parties have been given three months to remedy their “shortcomings”, but they have no intention of complying with this directive, especially as their political leaders are in exile. The main opposition leaders are organizing from outside the country, fine-tuning their strategies against the junta. This situation is creating a tense pre-electoral context in Guinea, even though no date has yet been announced for the next presidential election.