Source : Sahel weather December 2024 

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Since the coup d'état of July 26, 2023, which toppled President Mohamed Bazoum, relations between Niger and Nigeria have been marked by a certain coldness. When the military came to power in Niamey, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, also head of ECOWAS, reacted firmly, even going so far as to envisage military intervention to restore constitutional order. Despite a temporary resumption of military cooperation between the two neighbors, recent tensions show that relations remain marked by mistrust and strategic differences.

On December 18, 2024, the Nigerian Minister of Foreign Affairs summoned a representative of the Nigerian Embassy in Niamey. Nigerien authorities accuse Nigeria of serving as a rear base for destabilization attemptsorchestrated with the complicity of foreign powers and former dignitaries of Mohamed Bazoum's regime. This accusation comes against a backdrop of repeated sabotage of the pipeline transporting Nigerian oil to Benin, which is attributed to armed groups from Nigeria.

Nigeria, through its Minister of Foreign Affairs, formally denied these accusations, asserting that no foreign troops, particularly French, were present on its territory to prepare operations against Niger. General Christopher Musa, head of the Nigerian armed forces, at a luncheon with soldiers based in the Sokoto region, adopted a conciliatory stance, asserting: "Any element using Nigerian soil to attack our neighbors is an enemy of Nigeria. We are one with our neighbors and we will ensure that such threats are neutralized." Despite these efforts at appeasement, tension persists, especially as Niger has announced its withdrawal from ECOWAS, deepening the rift between the two countries.

The diplomatic tensions between Niger and Nigeria come against a backdrop of major security challenges affecting the entire Sahel region. Terrorist groups such as Boko Haram continue to sow terror. On December 14, 2024, Boko Haram jihadists murdered 14 Nigerian fishermen in the Bosso region of Niger. The victims were among the thousands of Nigerian refugees who had fled the violence in northeastern Nigeria to seek asylum in Niger.

The North returns to violence

In the north-western Nigerian state of Zamfara, armed groups known as “bandits” continue to terrorize the local population. These gangs carry out violent raids, kidnap women and children, and use explosive devices to control roads. On December 10, 2024, more than 50 women and children were abducted in an attack on the village of Kakin Dawa. Despite the deployment of additional security forces, the population still lives in fear.

Beyond these attacks, there are also inter-community conflicts. On December 25, 2024, Christmas Day, violence left at least fifteen people dead in a district of Benue, a region bordering Cameroon that has been marked for several years by conflicts between herders and farmers, causing deaths and displaced persons.

Against this backdrop , Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics has published, for the first time, a survey on crime and perceptions of security. The survey, carried out in 12,000 households across the country, reveals alarming figures: some 2 million people are thought to have been kidnapped in one year. However, the study drew criticism about the reliability of its methodology. In response, the authorities shut down the Statistics Bureau's website and summoned its director to State Security.

On December 03, 2024, one year later, drone attacks in the village of Tudunbiri in northern Nigeria caused dozens of deaths, mainly among civilians, including women and children. Initially intended to target terrorist positions, the strike is said to have been a tragic mistake, plunging the community into deep mourning. Residents described scenes of horror: bodies strewn about, houses destroyed, and total chaos. One year on, residents are calling for justice and guarantees that such tragedies will never happen again, and for greater consideration to be given to the humanitarian impact of anti-terrorist operations.