Source : Sahel weather January 2025

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The beginning of 2025 has seen an upsurge in terrorist attacks in Nigeria, with many victims. On January 4, 2025, the terrorist group Islamic State in West Africa (ISWAP) attacked a military base in Borno State, in the northeast of the country. The offensive claimed the lives of eight soldiers. The attack specifically targeted the Sabron Gari military base in Damboa, which was set on fire, with vehicles destroyed. The attackers, travelling on motorcycles and in armed trucks, got their hands on large stores of weapons and ammunition. The army's intervention, supported by fighter jets deployed from Maiduguri, the regional capital, resulted in the neutralization of 34 terrorists and the recovery of 24 AK-47 rifles as well as several rounds of ammunition. President Bola Tinubu welcomed the intervention and urged the army to adopt a "proactive posture" by waging a relentless war against terrorist groups and bandits.

Following this attack, on January 24, the army launched a ground offensive against ISWAP in a border area between Borno and Yobe states. During this operation, a suicide bomber killed 27 soldiers. According to the testimony of an officer speaking on condition of anonymity, the attack occurred at around 9.30pm, in the middle of the night. The soldiers, taken by surprise, had no time to react when a suicide bomber, concealed under thick foliage and carrying explosives, threw himself onto their convoy.

The rise in terrorist attacks in northeastern Nigeria illustrates the severity of the security crisis there. Since the split between Boko Haram and ISWAP in 2016, a bitter struggle for control of the region has given rise to numerous deadly attacks claimed by one or other of these groups. According to statistics, this conflict has already led to the deaths of 40,000 people and displaced around 2 million inhabitants in the space of fifteen years.

Despite its efforts, the Nigerian army is regularly criticized by local populations, who denounce the repetition of tactical errors. Moreover, on January 11, 2025, in Zamfara State, an erroneous army strike caused the death of at least 16 members of a local self-defense group. Mistakes such as these reinforce the mistrust of the inhabitants of the North, who are already confronted with looting, kidnappings and atrocities perpetrated by armed groups. The Coalition des groupes du Nord (CNG), represented by Jamilu Aliyu, describes a dramatic situation in these terms: "If these populations are not killed by army strikes, they are killed by bandits. And if the bandits don't kill them, they end up being kidnapped."

The continuing insecurity in north-eastern Nigeria highlights the extremely difficult living conditions of the local population. On January 12, members of ISWAP rounded up dozens of farmers in the town of Dumba, on the shores of Lake Chad, and executed them. According to Borno State Information Commissioner Usman Tar, "preliminary findings indicate that about 40 farmers were killed". However, Babakura Kolo, head of a local anti-jihadist militia, believes this toll is grossly underestimated. He explains that ISWAP terrorists wanted to punish farmers for paying money to Boko Haram so that they could cultivate their land. This situation highlights the struggle for control of Lake Chad, a strategic area on the border between Niger and Cameroon, used as a sanctuary by these groups to launch their offensives.

In this context, the proliferation of terrorist groups and criminal gangs continues to threaten the stability of the region. On January 23, 2025, the Nigerian judiciary officially declared illegal the activities of the Lakurawa sect and other similar groups throughout the country, particularly in the North-West and North-Central regions. The Prevention of Terrorism Act will henceforth make it possible to punish more severely not only the members of these groups, but also their informers and anyone providing them with logistical support.

Finally, the security crisis in Nigeria is multi-scalar, with political and economic implications. On January 18, a fuel tanker exploded in Niger State, killing 98 people. The vehicle, carrying 60,000 liters of petrol, overturned at the Dikko junction between Abuja and Kaduna. While attempting to transfer the fuel to another tanker, the liquid caught fire when it came into contact with a generator, causing the death of dozens of people, some of whom had rushed to collect the spilled petrol. The current economic crisis, marked by rising fuel and food prices, is exacerbating the precariousness of populations to the point of exposing them to such tragedies. In 2020, the Federal Road Safety Commission recorded over 1,500 accidents involving tanker trucks, resulting in 535 fatalities. Faced with this situation, effective strategies must be put in place to combat these scourges and improve the living conditions of Nigerians in the long term.