Source : Sahel weather January 2025

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In Côte d'Ivoire, the candidacy of the current president continues to cause controversy. Indeed, Alassane Ouattara continues to maintain the vagueness surrounding his participation in the forthcoming elections. With nine months to go before the presidential election, he is still in a state of pendulum; on January 9, he stated that he had not yet taken a decision on his candidacy. Nevertheless, on January 9, 2025, he declared that he was "eager to continue serving" his country, while assuring that he had not yet made up his mind whether to run for a fourth term in the October 2025 presidential election. In any case, for his supporters, there is no plan B. The only good plan is plan A, like Alassane.

For his part, will Guillaume Soro stand in the October 2025 elections? His candidacy remains an equation with several unknowns to be resolved, given that the former rebel leader is still under an international arrest warrant and must benefit from an amnesty in order to run. It should be remembered that he announced his candidacy via an online meeting, as he was forced into exile. His dream of presiding over the country's destiny is increasingly shattered, given that the chances of Alassane Ouattara granting him amnesty are very slim. Meanwhile, on January 15, the Court of Appeal upheld the two-year prison sentences handed down to two of his lieutenants. These were two executives of his movement, Générations et peuples solidaires (GPS), arrested for "illegally maintaining a political party" and "undermining public order".

At the same time, the case of Laurent Gbagbo has also attracted public attention. He has been pardoned by the public authorities, but this does not erase the heavy charges against him, preventing him from being reinstated on the electoral roll. The same fate awaits Charles Blé Goudé, who still has the sword of Damocles hanging over his head from Lady Justice, preventing him from taking part in the next presidential election. The fratricidal duel between Houphouët's heirs is also still on the agenda. Indeed, Billon still maintains his "rebel" candidacy against the party's decision to invest businessman Tidjane Thiam. To resolve these nagging problems surrounding the electoral issue, some voices are calling for dialogue between the parties involved. The government, for its part, does not seem to agree with this proposal, since, according to the authorities, all these issues have already been discussed at previous national dialogues. On January 8, the government spokesman pointed out that the previous editions "enabled us to review all the concerns".

Diplomatic tensions with Burkina Faso continue to dominate the headlines. The diplomats recalled by Captain Traoré finally left Abidjan, further aggravating the situation. This strong action by the leaders of the two countries further complicates their bilateral relations. As a reminder, these conflicts have always existed between the two states under Houphouët and Sankara.

On another note, the beginning of 2025 marks a decisive turning point in security cooperation between Paris and Abidjan. How can we analyze this situation when we know that Côte d'Ivoire was once a staunch ally of the former colonizer? It should be noted that the French are not leaving Côte d'Ivoire altogether, as France is planning not a total withdrawal but a reduction in its armed presence, cutting the number of soldiers in the country from 2,200 to 600 as part of what it calls the "redeployment" of its military posture.