According to the Director of the Timbuktu Institute, further isolation of the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States risks compromising security cooperation and opening the door to other diplomatic and strategic influences in the region.

Professor Bakary Sambe, Director of the Timbuktu Institute, warns of the consequences of the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS, arguing that further isolation of the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States (SSA) could lead to the destruction of the regional security architecture and exacerbate the socio-economic crisis in the region. On 29 January 2025, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger officially ceased to be members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) at their own request, confirming a decision previously taken by the organisation's leaders at a summit in Abuja, Nigeria's federal capital. The departure of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger from ECOWAS could lead to the breakdown of the regional security architecture’, said Bakary Sambe, Director of the Timbuktu Institute and Professor at the Université Gaston-Berger de Saint-Louis (UGB). The first consequence of these withdrawals is that we are heading towards a breakdown in the regional security architecture, but also towards a socio-economic threat if these countries decide to become much more isolated’, he told APS in a telephone interview. Weighed down by harsh economic sanctions imposed by ECOWAS in the wake of military coups, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are also facing major security problems linked to the prevalence of armed groups claiming to be jihadists. The teacher-researcher points out that the remoteness from the ECOWAS area of these three countries grouped around the Alliance of Sahel States (SSA) could prompt other diplomatic forces to intervene in the sub-region, thereby disrupting the way in which these members cooperate together on security matters. He points to the arrival of Russia and other players such as Turkey in this part of the African continent. 

The director of the Timbuktu Institute fears above all the consequences for security cooperation.

Cross-border cooperation has become impossible because of the diplomatic crisis between Benin and Niger. The lack of cross-border cooperation has led to a resurgence of attacks in northern Benin, particularly in the Alibori department. This is also reflected in the difficulty of cooperating at border level with Burkina Faso, which has become a major epicentre of terrorism’, he pointed out.

Avoiding a total break with the SSA

According to the lecturer at the Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis, these factors, combined with the impossibility of exchanging intelligence and cooperating on joint patrols, could have a major impact on regional security and aggravate the situation in terms of the fight against terrorism, and he urged ECOWAS leaders not to ‘make a total break with the three dissident countries, whatever the situation, even if the SSA should continue to exist. We need to put in place mechanisms and build bridges of cooperation, as the European Union is doing with the Swiss Confederation. Switzerland is at the heart of Europe, but is not part of the European Union. Nevertheless, it has developed cooperation with the European Union on border management, economic issues and other agreements’, he explained. This model, if applied, could save sub-regional integration and guarantee the continuity of economic exchanges between ECOWAS and the countries of the SSA, he insisted, citing the example of the approach taken by Senegal and Mali, which cooperate within the framework of joint patrols to ensure security in the common border zone. He stressed the need for other countries in the sub-region to draw inspiration from this model of cooperation, based on the strong desire of the peoples of the region to integrate. This undoubtedly determined the choice of the SSA countries not to infringe the freedom of movement of ECOWAS nationals, just as it did that of the Community organisation not to impose restrictions on movement or mobility on Burkinabe, Malians and Nigeriens.

Countries are fairly aware of their interests

I think that the desire to remain within the framework of sub-regional integration, even outside the framework of ECOWAS, is a desire shared by both entities’, the academic believes. Everything will depend, he pointed out, on the intelligence of the leaders of the various states called upon to build bridges and develop alternatives that can maintain the possibility of economic exchanges. Bakary Sambe also welcomed the decision of the SSA countries to remain within the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) for the time being, whose cooperation frameworks have so far enabled them to avoid suffering too much from these departures. He did, however, warn of possible economic difficulties if the SSA states decided to leave the CFA franc, as they have recently done with the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF). 

But I don't think they will go that far, because the countries are quite aware of their interests at the moment. They have left the sub-regional organisation, but are aware of the important role of WAEMU’, Bakary Sambe emphasised.

Source : seneplus POLITIQUE