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The actions of Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimîn (JNIM) in southwest Mali indicate that it is seeking to infiltrate Mauritania and Senegal. JNIM has exponentially increased its activities in Kayes, Mali's border region with Guinea, Mauritania and Senegal. These activities include complex attacks on security forces, coercion of civilians and criminal economy. JNIM's main objective is to push Malian security forces out of areas close to Bamako and delegitimize the government, thus laying the foundations for an extension of its area of operations. JNIM has already illegally infiltrated key economic sectors, such as logging and mining, which depend on trade with Mauritania and Senegal. JNIM's interests in these sectors enable it to establish cross-border networks. The group is aware that it can then use these networks to facilitate the movement of affiliated people and resources to Mauritania and Senegal. Although its immediate priority is to use Mauritanian and Senegalese territory to finance its actions and recruit, JNIM will probably try to gradually extend its territorial control in the future.

Senegal presents vulnerability factors that JNIM can exploit, including a porous border, a lack of awareness of security issues among the population, pressing socio-economic challenges and the spread of Salafism. Senegal's border with Mali is already heavily exploited by smugglers, and its geography makes it more difficult to secure. However, a significant proportion of the population in regions threatened by JNIM expansion do not see the group as an immediate threat. Unemployment remains high in these regions, and caste systems in the Bakel area perpetuate inequalities and other injustices by stigmatizing entire communities. Salafist ideologues have used these grievances to influence people’s religious beliefs, making them potentially more receptive to violent extremism. Ideologues offer a “liberation theology” contrasted with traditional Islam, whose actors do not sufficiently condemn the caste system and other inequalities. JNIM has already exploited similar vulnerabilities throughout the Sahel; Senegal should not be considered a sustainable exception without prevention and community resilience-building efforts.

At the same time, Senegal has resilience factors that have so far spared it, principally its social cohesion and its competent, professional security forces. Added to this are the mutual respect and spirit of peaceful cohabitation that characterize relations between different ethnic and religious groups. Their harmonious relations make it difficult for JNIM to exploit existing tensions to its own advantage, as it has been able to do elsewhere in the region. Moreover, the vast majority of Senegalese do not subscribe to the more radical ideologies shared by followers of groups like JNIM. They prefer moderate teachings of Islam, particularly those of Sufi brotherhood leaders, who reinforce social cohesion and oppose radicalization and violent extremism. Although the brotherhoods are not as influential in the eastern border regions, these regions have not, to date, seen any notable rise extremism. In addition, Senegal has professional security forces who have established healthy and relatively peaceful relations with the local population. This mitigates another grievance that JNIM has exploited in the Sahel, namely the opposition between border populations and security forces. From this point of view, Senegal has a solid base of resilience to prevent JNIM from expanding and establishing itself in the long term.

Based on these facts, the Senegalese government could improve security in the most vulnerable parts of the country by building community resilience. It needs to strengthen the presence of its permanent security forces in border regions, as well as its cooperation with Mali and Mauritania. It should also conduct awareness- raising campaigns among local leaders - religious and traditional - and increase programs aimed at alleviating socio-economic difficulties and vulnerabilities. These holistic policies will integrate security, cultural and socio-economic aspects to limit the possibility of JNIM infiltration.

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