Source : Sahel weather May 2025

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Just as the Republic of Guinea's path towards democracy was becoming clearer, reluctance began to emerge. On 12 May, Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah confirmed that a constitutional referendum would be held in September 2025, and that legislative and presidential elections would be held in December 2025 - good news for a country in doubt as to whether the transition timetable announced by the junta would be maintained. However, this mistrust was confirmed at the press conference on Thursday 22 May by the government spokesman, who clarified the prime minister's remarks by explaining that "we must not put the cart before the horse". "As spokesman for the Presidency, I am not in a position to give you a date for the elections, but we want to make this year an election year, in accordance with the declaration of the Head of State".

Compliance with the transition timetable is not the only concern about the democratic transition programme. The temporary suspension of 28 political parties in March 2025 has also sparked controversy among the opposition and civil society. According to several observers, this succession of suspensions reflects a desire to unbalance the electoral process to the advantage of the government in power, by weakening the opposition in the run-up to the elections. Indeed, despite the ban on members of the junta standing for election, Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya is gathering a good deal of support for his candidacy in the forthcoming presidential elections, and there seems to be some doubt about his candidacy. However, a revision of the Transitional Charter would be necessary to authorise him to stand. A decision that would run counter to the democratic principles defended and desired by the transition regime.

Vast mining "clean-up operation": the State regains control

Meanwhile, the country has ordered the withdrawal of "research permits" and "operating permits" from dozens of mining companies. The list of these companies was made public by Information Minister Fana Soumah on Guinean national television on the evening of Saturday 17 May. This operation is part of "the ongoing operation to clean up the land registry" initiated by the junta. The aim is to "make room for potential serious investors", announced the Executive Director of the NGO Action Mines Guinée and a member of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) in Guinea. In reality, this is a key issue for the country, which is unable to ensure that the population benefits from the revenues generated by mining, and which is continuing its fight against corruption.

Senegal and Guinea consolidate their security partnership

The Guinea-Senegal Bilateral Cooperation Commission, held in Conakry on 22 and 23 May 2025, concluded with the signing of 15 partnership agreements covering a wide range of areas: economy, security, justice, culture, agriculture, higher education and cinema. The aim of this session was to update the legal framework for cooperation and strengthen strategic relations between the two countries. The key texts include an agreement on air services, a border demarcation treaty, agreements on justice and security, and cultural and film cooperation agreements. The two foreign ministers welcomed the spirit of collaboration and stressed the importance of effective implementation of the agreements, via a monitoring and evaluation mechanism. The next session is scheduled for 2027, with the aim of taking stock of the concrete progress made.