Timbuktu Institute – March 2026

Nigeria has turned to foreign intervention to navigate their escalating security crisis. At the end of 2025, the US military bombed northern Nigeria in coordination with the Nigerian government, targeting jihadist terrorist groups in the region. Shortly after, in February 2026 it was confirmed that the US government would be sending troops to Nigeria to train and support the Nigerian military with jihadist violence in the north. These actions come after a period of tension between the U.S government and Nigeria. The Trump administration claimed the Nigerian government was ignoring and potentially allowing the mass killings of Nigerian Christians, which Nigerian President Tinubu strongly denied. Trump’s engagement with Nigeria is seemingly driven by religion, as his administration and political supporters are using a narrative of Christian persecution by Muslim actors, to justify military intervention.

Nigeria’s Security Situation

Nigeria’s current security problems are multifaceted with no singular narrative.  For nearly 15 years, the northeast of the country has been impacted by terrorist violence from jihadist militant groups. Islamic State West Africa (ISWAP) and Boko Haram have been terrorizing communities in this region with violent attacks. In the northwest, organized armed groups locally called bandits, carry out kidnappings for ransom. These types of attacks have become increasingly common, with these bandit groups kidnapping individuals but also cattle, and raiding villages. Then, resource competition, exacerbated by climate change, has escalated tensions between herding and farming communities in the middle belt region of the country. This has resulted in violent clashes, exposing ethnic and religious tensions. While in the south, separatist agitation persists. The Nigerian government struggles to control these situations.

During this complex domestic security situation, the US government under the new leadership of President Trump began to question the Nigerian government about violence against Christians in the country. In late 2025, President Trump accused the Nigerian government of ignoring or even allowing widespread killings of Christians. He threatened diplomatic and military actions if the situation was not addressed. Nigerian President Bobi Ahmed Tinubu denied the accusations that Nigeria allows Christians to be killed, emphasizing that terrorism impacts all Nigerians. Then on December 25, President Trump announced a successful military strike in northern Nigeria. The US military struckseveral sites in the northwestern state Sokoto targeting jihadist militant groups. According to the US military, a military vessel in the Gulf of Guinea fired around a dozen Tomahawk missiles, striking approximately four locations. Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar stated it was a joint military operation with the United States. 

From Religious Advocacy to Military Action

There has been growing concern from US right wing religious groups and politicians about violence towards Christians in Nigeria. While there are well-documented incidents of violence perpetrated against Christian Nigerians, violence in Nigeria is widespread and impacts all communities. In March 2025, the United States Congress held a hearingtitled “Conflict and Persecution in Nigeria: The Case for a CPC Designation”. Members of Congress called on President Trump to designate Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern (CPC). This designation is given by the US State Department for countries considered to engage in violations of religious freedoms. Once a country has this designation, the US government can take diplomatic action against the government, with severe actions such as withholding aid or economic sanctions. The situation escalated when in October, a letter was written to President Trump from 30 different Christian organizations about the persecution of Christians in Nigeria, and to officially designate Nigeria a country of particular concern. On 31 October, President Trump re-instated Nigeria to the CPC list, threatening military action if the Nigerian government did not attempt to stop the killing of Christians by Islamist terrorists. Then in early December, a delegation of US Congress members visited Abuja on a fact-finding mission where they heard from government officials, victims of violence, and religious leaders and organizations from Benue state in the middle belt region. The military strikes were carried out a few weeks after the visit. Despite new military cooperation between the US and Nigeria, a bill was introduced in US Congress in February 2026 that threatens visa bans and asset freezes on specific Nigerians accused of religious freedom abuses. 

Targets of the Missile Strike

The US military confirmed that the missile strikes were successful in targeting training camps for an ISIS affiliated group in Sokoto state. There are no reported casualties at this time, but residents of nearby villages reported seeing fighters fleeing on motorbikes. Local reports say the strikes hit training camps of the Lakurawa group, who are a Islamic group the Nigerian government designated a terrorist organization in January 2025. Lakurawa arrived in Nigeria in 2017, after being invited by local communities for protection from bandit groups. They are situated in a remote area of Sokoto state near the border of Niger and are believed to have come from Mali and Niger and are not Nigerian. Despite initially arriving with intentions to provide protection for vulnerable communities in an isolated part of the country, they now rule over the area with fear, imposing strict interpretations of Islam.  Both US and Nigerian officials assert Lakurawa is affiliated to Islamic State (IS) groups in the Sahel but their connection to IS is disputed by researchers. Lakurawa operates in northwest Nigeria, while most Islamic terrorist groups such as Boko Haram are in northeastern Nigeria.

It is unclear on why the US military targeted Lakurawa with the missile strikes. The Trump administration stated their intervention was an attempt to protect Christians in Nigeria. Sokoto state, where the strikes were sent, is a majority Muslim area like most of Northern Nigeria, and more specifically the communities impacted by Lakurawa are Muslim. It is surprising that larger Islamist terrorist groups such as Boko Haram or ISWAP were not targeted, which are in the northeast. In the months before the strikes, US politicians specifically discussed violence against Christians in clashes between herder and farming communities in the middle belt region. When members of the US Congress visited Abuja in early December, they specifically met with people from Benue state in the middle belt, a conflict happening in a different part of the country than where the missile strikes were launched.

Looking Forward

In the White House’s 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), US engagement with Africa should recognize Islamist terrorist activity without long-term American presence or commitments. The US’s recent engagement with Nigeria under Trump is addressing violence from jihadist groups but is increasing the US’s military presence. After the air strikes in December, the US military sent 100 US soldiers northeastern Nigeria to assist and train local forces. Despite the NSS policy on Africa, the right-wing Christian movement to protect Christian Nigerians has motivated the Trump administration make military commitments to the Nigerian government.

Prepared with Saveena Suri, Research Intern, Peace & Security

Timbuktu Institute – March 2026

Nigeria has turned to foreign intervention to navigate their escalating security crisis. At the end of 2025, the US military bombed northern Nigeria in coordination with the Nigerian government, targeting jihadist terrorist groups in the region. Shortly after, in February 2026 it was confirmed that the US government would be sending troops to Nigeria to train and support the Nigerian military with jihadist violence in the north. These actions come after a period of tension between the U.S government and Nigeria. The Trump administration claimed the Nigerian government was ignoring and potentially allowing the mass killings of Nigerian Christians, which Nigerian President Tinubu strongly denied. Trump’s engagement with Nigeria is seemingly driven by religion, as his administration and political supporters are using a narrative of Christian persecution by Muslim actors, to justify military intervention.

Nigeria’s Security Situation

Nigeria’s current security problems are multifaceted with no singular narrative.  For nearly 15 years, the northeast of the country has been impacted by terrorist violence from jihadist militant groups. Islamic State West Africa (ISWAP) and Boko Haram have been terrorizing communities in this region with violent attacks. In the northwest, organized armed groups locally called bandits, carry out kidnappings for ransom. These types of attacks have become increasingly common, with these bandit groups kidnapping individuals but also cattle, and raiding villages. Then, resource competition, exacerbated by climate change, has escalated tensions between herding and farming communities in the middle belt region of the country. This has resulted in violent clashes, exposing ethnic and religious tensions. While in the south, separatist agitation persists. The Nigerian government struggles to control these situations.

During this complex domestic security situation, the US government under the new leadership of President Trump began to question the Nigerian government about violence against Christians in the country. In late 2025, President Trump accused the Nigerian government of ignoring or even allowing widespread killings of Christians. He threatened diplomatic and military actions if the situation was not addressed. Nigerian President Bobi Ahmed Tinubu denied the accusations that Nigeria allows Christians to be killed, emphasizing that terrorism impacts all Nigerians. Then on December 25, President Trump announced a successful military strike in northern Nigeria. The US military struck several sites in the northwestern state Sokoto targeting jihadist militant groups. According to the US military, a military vessel in the Gulf of Guinea fired around a dozen Tomahawk missiles, striking approximately four locations. Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Maitama Tuggar stated it was a joint military operation with the United States. 

From Religious Advocacy to Military Action

There has been growing concern from US right wing religious groups and politicians about violence towards Christians in Nigeria. While there are well-documented incidents of violence perpetrated against Christian Nigerians, violence in Nigeria is widespread and impacts all communities. In March 2025, the United States Congress held a hearing titled “Conflict and Persecution in Nigeria: The Case for a CPC Designation”. Members of Congress called on President Trump to designate Nigeria a Country of Particular Concern (CPC). This designation is given by the US State Department for countries considered to engage in violations of religious freedoms. Once a country has this designation, the US government can take diplomatic action against the government, with severe actions such as withholding aid or economic sanctions. The situation escalated when in October, a letter was written to President Trump from 30 different Christian organizations about the persecution of Christians in Nigeria, and to officially designate Nigeria a country of particular concern. On 31 October, President Trump re-instated Nigeria to the CPC list, threatening military action if the Nigerian government did not attempt to stop the killing of Christians by Islamist terrorists. Then in early December, a delegation of US Congress members visited Abuja on a fact-finding mission where they heard from government officials, victims of violence, and religious leaders and organizations from Benue state in the middle belt region. The military strikes were carried out a few weeks after the visit. Despite new military cooperation between the US and Nigeria, a bill was introduced in US Congress in February 2026 that threatens visa bans and asset freezes on specific Nigerians accused of religious freedom abuses. 

Targets of the Missile Strike

The US military confirmed that the missile strikes were successful in targeting training camps for an ISIS affiliated group in Sokoto state. There are no reported casualties at this time, but residents of nearby villages reported seeing fighters fleeing on motorbikes. Local reports say the strikes hit training camps of the Lakurawa group, who are a Islamic group the Nigerian government designated a terrorist organization in January 2025. Lakurawa arrived in Nigeria in 2017, after being invited by local communities for protection from bandit groups. They are situated in a remote area of Sokoto state near the border of Niger and are believed to have come from Mali and Niger and are not Nigerian. Despite initially arriving with intentions to provide protection for vulnerable communities in an isolated part of the country, they now rule over the area with fear, imposing strict interpretations of Islam.  Both US and Nigerian officials assert Lakurawa is affiliated to Islamic State (IS) groups in the Sahel but their connection to IS is disputed by researchers. Lakurawa operates in northwest Nigeria, while most Islamic terrorist groups such as Boko Haram are in northeastern Nigeria.

It is unclear on why the US military targeted Lakurawa with the missile strikes. The Trump administration stated their intervention was an attempt to protect Christians in Nigeria. Sokoto state, where the strikes were sent, is a majority Muslim area like most of Northern Nigeria, and more specifically the communities impacted by Lakurawa are Muslim. It is surprising that larger Islamist terrorist groups such as Boko Haram or ISWAP were not targeted, which are in the northeast. In the months before the strikes, US politicians specifically discussed violence against Christians in clashes between herder and farming communities in the middle belt region. When members of the US Congress visited Abuja in early December, they specifically met with people from Benue state in the middle belt, a conflict happening in a different part of the country than where the missile strikes were launched.

Looking Forward

In the White House’s 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS), US engagement with Africa should recognize Islamist terrorist activity without long-term American presence or commitments. The US’s recent engagement with Nigeria under Trump is addressing violence from jihadist groups but is increasing the US’s military presence. After the air strikes in December, the US military sent 100 US soldiers northeastern Nigeria to assist and train local forces. Despite the NSS policy on Africa, the right-wing Christian movement to protect Christian Nigerians has motivated the Trump administration make military commitments to the Nigerian government.

Prepared with Saveena Suri, Research Intern, Peace & Security

بقلم: الدكتور بكاري سامب رئيس ومؤسس معهد تمبكتو – المركز الأفريقي لدراسات السلام

في شهر أبريل من عام 2025، ومن منصة منتدى الأمن العالمي في الدوحة، أطلقتُ نداءً استشرافياً نابعاً من قراءة دقيقة للتحولات الجيوسياسية المتسارعة، حيث أكدتُ حينها أن استقرار منطقة الساحل الأفريقي قد يتطلب بروز وسيط استثنائي يجمع بين القوة الناعمة، والفهم العميق للهوية، والقدرة المثبتة على اختراق الجمود الدبلوماسي. واليوم، ومع تزايد تعقيد المشهد في دول الساحل، يبدو أن دولة قطر بإمكانها أن تكون الطرف المؤهل بامتياز لملء هذا الفراغ ولعب دور المحرك الأساسي لقطار السلام في المنطقة

إن السياسة الخارجية القطرية، التي لم تكن يوماً طرفاً في النزاعات بل “غرفة مفتوحة” للحوار، من شأنها أن توفر منصة مثالية للفرقاء في الساحل حين تُوصد كافة الأبواب. فنجاحات الدوحة التاريخية، سواء في الملف الأفغاني أو في الوساطة بين جمهورية الكونغو الديمقراطية ورواندا، يمكن أن تشكل نموذجاً ملهماً وقابلاً للتطبيق في سياقنا الأفريقي. هذا النجاح لا يرتكز على الإرادة السياسية فحسب، بل على منظومة متكاملة من “الدبلوماسية المعرفية”؛ إذ من المتوقع أن يساهم توظيف أدوات مثل الأكاديمية الدولية للدراسات الأمنية ومركز دراسات النزاع والعمل الإنساني في تقديم مقاربات علمية رصينة تربط بين استدامة السلام وبين العمل الإغاثي والتنموي، مما قد يمنح أي وساطة قطرية مستقبلاً عمقاً تحليلياً يفتقر إليه الكثير من الفاعلين التقليديين

وما قد يجعل التدخل القطري المُرتجى في أزمات الساحل (مالي، النيجر، بوركينا فاسو) ذا أهمية بالغة، هو امتلاك الدوحة لـ “شرعية مزدوجة”؛ فهي من جهة تستطيع توظيف شرعيتها الروحية والثقافية كدولة مسلمة لبناء جسور ثقة مع شعوب وقادة المنطقة بعيداً عن حواجز الارتياب التاريخية. ومن جهة أخرى، فإن بمقدورها استثمار شرعية الإنجاز والتراكم المعرفي كوسط نزيه لديه القدرة على تحويل الصراعات المسلحة إلى مسارات سياسية، مدعومة بدبلوماسية تأثير تجمع بين الروافع الاقتصادية والإعلامية

إن ندائي في الدوحة كان مبنياً على رؤية مفادها أن منطقة الساحل ربما تجد في “نموذج الدوحة” المخرج المنشود من دوامة الأزمات، خاصة إذا ما تم التكامل بين الحنكة الدبلوماسية وأدوات الدعم التنموي كصندوق قطر للتنمية. إن انخراط قطر في هذا الملف قد لا يكون مجرد خيار ديبلوماسي، بل ضرورة استراتيجية واستثماراً في الاستقرار الإقليمي؛ فمن شأن تفعيل هذه الأدوات الأكاديمية والسياسية في أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء أن يفتح آفاقاً لبناء جسر آمن يعبر بالمنطقة من ضفة النزاعات المزمنة إلى فضاءات الاستقرار المستدام

SENEGAL-SOCIETY-RELIGION

Dakar, 27 February (APS) – The director of the Timbuktu Institute, Bakary Sambe, calls for a rediscovery of the religious and cultural values of solidarity and sharing in order to tackle the individualism, social exclusion and conflicts that are shaking West Africa and the Sahel.

‘Our meeting today is an urgent invitation to rediscover, at the very heart of our spiritual and cultural tradition, the deep resources that will enable us to resist the headwinds of our time, possessive individualism, growing exclusion, social fragmentation and the conflicts that are currently bloodying much of West Africa and the Sahel,’ he said.

Bakary Sambe hosted a public conference organised by the Women's Association of the national daily newspaper Le Soleil on Thursday on the theme of ‘Religions and values of solidarity and sharing’.

The event was attended by Turkish Ambassador Nur Sagman, patron of this edition, her Pakistani counterpart Saima Maymunah Sayed, and the Director General of Le Soleil, Mouhamadou Lamine Niang.

The mayor of Hann Bel-Air, Babacar Mbengue, the administrative and technical staff of the daily newspaper, as well as Muslim and Christian religious leaders, also took part in the conference.

According to Bakary Sambe, the theme of this public conference represents ‘much more than just a conference’ and should be considered ‘an urgent call’ during the holy month of Ramadan to reconnect with the ‘deep resources’ of Senegalese spiritual traditions.

In a world dominated by the logic of ‘me first,’ he reminded us that ‘human beings are not solitary beings, but spaces of solidarity.’

Drawing on Islamic and Christian references, he quoted a hadith from the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH): ‘A Muslim is the brother of a Muslim; he does not oppress him or abandon him,’ as well as a passage from the Gospel according to Luke calling for the sharing of goods with the most disadvantaged.

‘I am because we are’

‘Two traditions, certainly, but one eternal truth: sharing is not a charitable option, it is a divine commandment that structures life in society,’ he said, recalling that zakat is one of the five pillars of Islam, and that in Christianity, attention to the most vulnerable is at the heart of the Gospel message.

Referring to Islamic tradition, he quoted Ibn Arabi, for whom ‘the religion of the Prophet is that of love’, as well as Sheikh Ahmadou Bamba, who declared that he had ‘forgiven all his enemies’.

He also quoted El Hadji Malick Sy and Mame Limamoulaye, religious figures who, according to him, embodied tolerance and social cohesion.

For Bakary Sambe, these teachings converge with African cultural values such as Teranga (hospitality) and the philosophy of Ubuntu (‘I am because we are’), which emphasise interdependence and collective responsibility.

He emphasised the ‘central role’ of women in preserving and transmitting these values, particularly through ‘dahiras’ (groups of worshippers), tontines and community initiatives. 

‘Women are the beating heart, the invisible but indispensable driving force behind this solidarity,’ said the founding president of the Timbuktu Institute, an African peace research centre based in Dakar, Senegal, with offices in Niamey (Niger) and Bamako (Mali).

He praised women's commitment to orphans, widows and the sick.

According to the speaker, the Covid-19 pandemic has been a stark reminder of the interdependence of societies, emphasising that ‘no country, no class, no individual can save itself alone’.

‘More visibility and resources for women’

He called for ‘horizontal solidarity’ based on ‘shared vulnerability and concrete fraternity’.

Returning to the Senegalese model, he described Senegal as ‘an island of peace’ in a troubled region, highlighting the harmony between Muslims and Christians, joint religious celebrations and the amicable settlement of inter-community disputes.

He also referred to the Turkish tradition of waqf, recalling that under the Ottoman Empire, pious foundations, many of them created by women, financed hospitals, schools and social works. He cited the example of Nurbanu Sultan (1525-1583), wife of the Ottoman Sultan Selim II, son and successor of Suleiman the Magnificent.

Addressing media professionals, particularly women journalists, Bakary Sambe urged them to continue to be ‘conveyors of values’ and ‘artisans of peace’ in a fragile regional context marked by misinformation and divisions.

‘Let's give more space, more visibility and more resources to women, especially women in the media,’ he said, believing that promoting solidarity initiatives helps to strengthen national cohesion.

According to him, Islam, Christianity and African cultural traditions teach the same lesson: ‘True wealth lies in sharing, true strength lies in solidarity, true peace lies in loving one's neighbour.’

He concluded by calling for Senegalese and foreign partners, particularly Turkey, to continue building a ‘bridge of love, brotherhood and resilience’ in the face of contemporary challenges.

Source: APS

SENEGAL-SOCIETE-RELIGION

Dakar, 27 fév (APS) – Le directeur de Timbuktu Institute, Bakary Sambe, appelle à redécouvrir les valeurs religieuses et culturelles de solidarité et de partage pour faire face à l’individualisme, à l’exclusion sociale et aux conflits qui secouent l’Afrique de l’Ouest et le Sahel.

“Notre rencontre d’aujourd’hui est une invitation urgente à redécouvrir, au cœur même de notre tradition spirituelle et culturelle, les ressources profondes qui nous permettront de résister au vent contraire de notre époque, l’individualisme possessif, l’exclusion croissante, la fragmentation sociale et les conflits ensanglantant aujourd’hui une grande partie de l’Afrique de l’Ouest et du Sahel”, a-t-il déclaré.

Bakary Sambe animait une conférence publique organisée par l’Amicale des femmes du quotidien national Le Soleil, jeudi, sur le thème “Religions et valeurs de solidarité et de partage”.

Cette journée s’est déroulée en présence des ambassadrices de la Turquie Nur Sagman, marraine de cette édition, de son homologue du Pakistan, Saima Maymunah Sayed, et du directeur général du Soleil, Mouhamadou Lamine Niang.

Le maire de la commune de Hann Bel-Air, Babacar Mbengue, le personnel administratif et technique du quotidien public ainsi que des hommes religieux, musulmans et chrétiens, ont également pris part à cette conférence.

Selon Bakary Sambe, le thème de cette conférence publique représente “bien plus qu’une simple conférence” et doit être considéré comme “un appel pressant”, en ce mois béni de Ramadan, à renouer avec “les ressources profondes” des traditions spirituelles sénégalaises.

Dans un monde dominé par la logique du “moi d’abord”, il a rappelé que “l’humain n’est pas un être solitaire, mais un espace de solidarité”.

S’appuyant sur des références islamiques et chrétiennes, il a cité un hadith du Prophète Muhammad (PSL) : “Le musulman est le frère du musulman, il ne l’opprime pas et ne l’abandonne pas”, ainsi qu’un passage de l’Évangile selon Luc appelant au partage des biens avec les plus démunis.

“Je suis parce que nous sommes”

“Deux traditions, certes, mais une seule vérité éternelle : le partage n’est pas une option charitable, c’est un commandement divin qui structure la vie en société”, a-t-il affirmé, rappelant que la zakat constitue l’un des cinq piliers de l’islam, et que dans le christianisme, l’attention portée aux plus vulnérables est au cœur du message évangélique.

Évoquant la tradition islamique, il a cité Ibn Arabi pour qui “la religion du Prophète est celle de l’amour”, ainsi que Cheikh Ahmadou Bamba qui avait déclaré avoir “pardonné à tous ses ennemis”.

Il a également cité El Hadji Malick Sy et Mame Limamoulaye, figures religieuses ayant, selon lui, incarné la tolérance et la cohésion sociale.

Pour Bakary Sambe, ces enseignements convergent avec les valeurs culturelles africaines telles que la Teranga (hospitalité) et la philosophie de l’Ubuntu (“Je suis parce que nous sommes”), qui mettent l’accent sur l’interdépendance et la responsabilité collective.

Il a insisté sur le “rôle central” des femmes dans la préservation et la transmission de ces valeurs, notamment à travers les “dahiras” (regroupements de fidèles), les tontines et les initiatives communautaires.

“Les femmes sont le cœur battant, le moteur invisible mais indispensable de cette solidarité”, a-t-il soutenu le président fondateur de Timbuktu Institute, un centre de recherche africain pour la paix basé à Dakar, au Sénégal, avec des bureaux à Niamey (Niger) et à Bamako (Mali).

Il a salué l’engagement des femmes auprès des orphelins, des veuves et des malades.

Selon le conférencier, la pandémie de Covid-19 a rappelé brutalement l’interdépendance des sociétés, soulignant qu'”aucun pays, aucune classe, aucun individu ne peut se sauver seul”.

“Plus de visibilité et de moyens aux femmes”

Il a plaidé pour “une solidarité horizontale”, fondée sur “une vulnérabilité partagée et une fraternité concrète”.

Revenant sur le modèle sénégalais, il a décrit le Sénégal comme “une île de paix” dans une région troublée, mettant en avant l’harmonie entre musulmans et chrétiens, les célébrations religieuses communes et le règlement amiable des différends intercommunautaires.

Il a également évoqué la tradition turque du waqf, rappelant que sous l’Empire ottoman, des fondations pieuses dont plusieurs créées par des femmes finançaient hôpitaux, écoles et œuvres sociales. Il a cité, à cet effet, l’exemple de Nurbanu Sultan (1525-1583), épouse du sultan ottoman Selim II, fils et successeur de Soliman le Magnifique.

S’adressant aux professionnels des médias, en particulier aux femmes journalistes, Bakary Sambe les a exhortées à continuer à être “des passeuses de valeurs” et “des artisanes de la paix”, dans un contexte régional fragile marqué par la désinformation et les divisions.

“Donnons plus d’espace, plus de visibilité et plus de moyens aux femmes, particulièrement aux femmes des médias”, a-t-il lancé, estimant que la valorisation des initiatives solidaires contribue à consolider la cohésion nationale.

Selon lui, l’islam, le christianisme et les traditions culturelles africaines enseignent une même leçon : “La vraie richesse est dans le partage, la vraie force est dans la solidarité, la vraie paix est dans l’amour du prochain”.

Il a conclu en appelant à poursuivre, entre Sénégalais et partenaires étrangers, notamment turcs, la construction d’un “pont d’amour, de fraternité et de résilience” face aux défis contemporains.

Source : APS

Timbuktu Institute - Week 3 - February 2026

Download the full Sahel weather report 

A new wave of deadly violence in Nigeria is being felt in the centre-west of the country, where at least 46 people were killed in coordinated attacks on three villages by armed ‘bandits’. The attackers, who arrived in large numbers on motorbikes, opened fire on residents, looted shops and set fire to homes, also causing the displacement of hundreds of survivors. This tragedy illustrates the persistent chronic insecurity in this region, marked by conflicts over control of resources and kidnappings for ransom, despite repeated promises by the Nigerian authorities to strengthen the protection of civilian populations against increasingly daring criminal groups.

Escalating violence against Christian communities in Taraba

A deadly attack on 10 February 2026 in Mchia, Taraba State, where ten Christians were killed by Fulani herdsmen. Leaders of the Diocese of Wukari denounce a ‘bloodbath’ and an unprecedented humanitarian crisis: since September 2025, the violence has reportedly left more than 100 people dead, destroyed 200 churches and communities, and displaced 90,000 Catholics. The attackers are said to be specifically targeting religious buildings and homes in the early hours of the morning, while seizing agricultural land and committing abuses against civilians. In response to this situation, the Church is launching an urgent appeal to the Nigerian government for the immediate deployment of security reinforcements in vulnerable rural areas and is calling for increased humanitarian aid to avert a major catastrophe.

Eight soldiers killed in ISWAP attack near Lake Chad

A large-scale offensive was carried out by approximately seventy fighters from Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) against a military base in Cross Kauwa, in north-eastern Nigeria. The violent assault killed eight soldiers and wounded twenty-three, while the attackers destroyed eleven armoured vehicles and stole anti-aircraft equipment before fleeing. This raid is evidence of the general resurgence of violence in Borno State, despite the recent deployment of American reinforcements to support the Nigerian army. In a conflict that has been ongoing since 2009 and has already claimed more than 40,000 lives, this attack highlights the resilience of jihadist groups in the strategic Lake Chad area, forcing the authorities to strengthen their international security cooperation

Jihadist massacre in seven villages in Kebbi State

A series of coordinated attacks carried out on 18 February 2026 by the jihadist group Lakurawa against seven villages in the Arewa area of Kebbi State (north-western Nigeria). These violent assaults targeted residents who tried to resist, killing more than 30 civilians and creating a climate of terror. The emergence of this group, suspected of links to Islamic State in the Sahel, exacerbates a security situation already weakened by the activities of local criminal gangs specialising in kidnapping for ransom. Despite the immediate deployment of the army and local militias to stabilise the area and track down the attackers, this outbreak of violence highlights the continuing challenges for the Nigerian authorities in a region now at the heart of transnational jihadist threats.

Timbuktu Institute - Semaine 3 - Février 2026

Télécharger l'intégralité de la Météo Sahel 

Une nouvelle vague de violences meurtrières au Nigeria se fait sentir au centre-ouest du pays, où au moins 46 personnes ont été tuées lors d'attaques coordonnées contre trois villages par des « bandits » armés. Ces assaillants, arrivés en grand nombre à moto, ont ouvert le feu sur les habitants, pillé des commerces et incendié des habitations, provoquant également le déplacement de centaines de survivants. Ce drame illustre la persistance d'une insécurité chronique dans cette région, marquée par des conflits pour le contrôle des ressources et des enlèvements contre rançon, malgré les promesses répétées des autorités nigérianes de renforcer la protection des populations civiles face à des groupes criminels de plus en plus audacieux.

Escalade de la violence contre les communautés chrétiennes à Taraba

Une attaque meurtrière perpétrée le 10 février 2026 à Mchia, dans l'État de Taraba, où dix chrétiens ont été tués par des bergers peuls. Les responsables du diocèse de Wukari dénoncent un « carnage » et une crise humanitaire sans précédent : depuis septembre 2025, les violences auraient fait plus de 100 morts, entraîné la destruction de 200 églises et communautés, et provoqué le déplacement de 90 000 catholiques. Les assaillants cibleraient spécifiquement les édifices religieux et les habitations au petit matin, tout en s'emparant des terres agricoles et en commettant des exactions contre les civils. Face à cette situation, l'Église lance un appel urgent au gouvernement nigérian pour un déploiement immédiat de renforts de sécurité dans les zones rurales vulnérables et sollicite une aide humanitaire accrue pour éviter une catastrophe majeure.

Huit soldats tombés lors d'une attaque de l'ISWAP près du lac Tchad

Une offensive d'envergure a été menée par environ soixante-dix combattants de l'État islamique en Afrique de l'Ouest (ISWAP) contre une base militaire à Cross Kauwa, dans le nord-est du Nigeria. L'assaut, d'une grande violence, a causé la mort de huit soldats et fait vingt-trois blessés, tandis que les assaillants ont détruit onze véhicules blindés et dérobé du matériel antiaérien avant de s'enfuir. Ce raid témoigne de la  recrudescence générale des violences dans l'État de Borno, malgré le déploiement récent de renforts américains pour soutenir l'armée nigériane. Face à un conflit qui dure depuis 2009 et a déjà fait plus de 40 000 morts, cette attaque souligne la capacité de résilience des groupes djihadistes dans la zone stratégique du lac Tchad, forçant les autorités à renforcer leur coopération sécuritaire internationale

Massacre jihadiste dans sept villages de l'État de Kebbi

Une série d'attaques coordonnées menées le 18 février 2026 par le groupe jihadiste Lakurawa contre sept villages de la zone d'Arewa, dans l'État de Kebbi (nord-ouest du Nigeria). Ces assauts, d'une grande violence, ont visé les habitants ayant tenté de résister, faisant plus de trente morts parmi les civils et provoquant un climat de terreur. L'émergence de ce groupe, suspecté de liens avec l'État islamique au Sahel, aggrave une situation sécuritaire déjà fragilisée par les activités des bandes criminelles locales spécialisées dans les enlèvements contre rançon. Malgré le déploiement immédiat de l'armée et des milices locales pour stabiliser la zone et traquer les assaillants, cette flambée de violence souligne les défis persistants pour les autorités nigérianes dans une région désormais au cœur de menaces jihadistes transnationales.

Timbuktu Institute - Week 3 - February 2026

Download the full Sahel weather report 

The National Assembly of Senegal has begun examining several crucial bills, including one concerning the request to lift the parliamentary immunity of MP Farba Ngom. This legislative procedure, which is part of a drive for accountability desired by the new authorities, aims to allow the justice system to hear the MP on financial matters. The Assembly's bureau met to set the timetable for this procedure, marking a significant symbolic step in the management of parliamentary privileges.

Farba Ngom's response: ‘Hand on the Koran’ In response to the allegations of embezzlement, Farba Ngomvigorously proclaimed his innocence, claiming that he had never received a single franc from the public treasury illegally. To emphasise his good faith, the MP symbolically took an oath with his hand on the Koran, declaring that he was prepared to respond to any legal summons once his immunity had been lifted. He denounced what he called an attempt at political demonisation, while insisting that his wealth was the result of transparent private activities.

Bassirou Diomaye Faye: Modern and preventive justice

President Bassirou Diomaye Faye outlined his vision for far-reaching reform of the judiciary, arguing that modern justice should go beyond its purely repressive role to become a lever for conflict prevention. In his speech, he emphasised the importance of promoting social dialogue and mediation to relieve congestion in the courts. For the Head of State, a peaceful and accessible justice system is essential to guarantee social stability and restore trust between citizens and institutions.

Death of Abdoulaye Ba: six uniformed men punished

The investigation into the tragic death of Abdoulaye Ba has resulted in the official punishment of six defence and security forces officers, a decision confirmed by lawyer Bamba Cissé, Minister of the Interior and Public Security. These administrative and disciplinary measures are intended to punish the serious misconduct observed during the intervention that led to the victim's death. This announcement is seen as a strong signal against impunity within the law enforcement agencies, responding to the expectations of justice of the family and public opinion.

Tightening of laws and extension of the scope of ‘unnatural acts’

The Senegalese government has decided to significantly strengthen the Penal Code with regard to ‘unnatural acts’. The new reform now provides for the punishment of not only the acts themselves, but also their advocacy, with prison sentences. This decision is part of a clear desire to preserve the country's socio-cultural and religious values in the face of what the authorities consider to be deviant behaviour, thereby tightening the existing legal framework.

The bill to amend the Senegalese Penal Code has been clarified to include two new profiles in the context of the repression of unnatural acts. Parliamentary debates indicate that the law now more specifically targets those who encourage or facilitate these practices, thereby broadening criminal liability. This legislative extension reflects pressure from certain social and religious groups for stricter and more comprehensive legislation on these moral issues.

Timbuktu Institute - Semaine 3 - Février 2026

Télécharger l'intégralité de la Météo Sahel

L’Assemblée nationale du Sénégal a entamé l’examen de plusieurs projets de loi cruciaux, dont celui concernant la demande de levée de l’immunité parlementaire formulée contre le député Farba Ngom. Cette procédure législative, qui s'inscrit dans une dynamique de reddition de comptes souhaitée par les nouvelles autorités, vise à permettre à la justice d'entendre le parlementaire sur des dossiers financiers. Le bureau de l'Assemblée s'est réuni pour définir le calendrier de cette procédure, marquant une étape symbolique forte dans la gestion des privilèges parlementaires.

Réponse de Farba Ngom : « La main sur le Coran » En réaction aux accusations de malversations, Farba Ngom a vigoureusement clamé son innocence  en affirmant n'avoir jamais perçu le moindre franc du Trésor public de manière illicite. Pour souligner sa bonne foi, le député a symboliquement prêté serment la main sur le Coran, déclarant être prêt à répondre à toutes les convocations judiciaires une fois son immunité levée. Il dénonce une tentative de diabolisation politique tout en assurant que son patrimoine est le fruit d'activités privées transparentes.

 Bassirou Diomaye Faye : Une justice moderne et préventive

Le Président Bassirou Diomaye Faye a exposé sa vision d’une réforme en profondeur de l'appareil judiciaire, plaidant pour que la justice moderne dépasse son rôle purement répressif pour devenir un levier de prévention des conflits. Lors de son allocution, il a insisté sur l’importance de promouvoir le dialogue social et la médiation pour désengorger les tribunaux. Pour le chef de l'État, une justice apaisée et accessible est indispensable pour garantir la stabilité sociale et restaurer la confiance entre les citoyens et les institutions.

Mort d’Abdoulaye Ba : six hommes de tenue sanctionnés

L'enquête sur le décès tragique d'Abdoulaye Ba a abouti à la sanction officielle de six agents des forces de défense et de sécurité, une décision confirmée par l'avocat Me Bamba Cissé, Ministre de l’Intérieur et de la Sécurité Publique. Ces mesures administratives et disciplinaires visent à punir les manquements graves constatés lors de l'intervention ayant entraîné la mort de la victime. Cette annonce est perçue comme un signal fort contre l'impunité au sein des forces de l'ordre, répondant aux attentes de justice de la famille et de l'opinion publique.

Durcissement des lois et extension du champs des « actes contre nature »

Le gouvernement sénégalais a décidé de renforcer considérablement le Code pénal en ce qui concerne les « actes contre nature ». La nouvelle réforme prévoit désormais de sanctionner non seulement les actes eux-mêmes, mais aussi leur apologie, par des peines de prison ferme. Cette décision s'inscrit dans une volonté affirmée de préserver les valeurs socioculturelles et religieuses du pays face à ce que les autorités considèrent comme des déviances, durcissant ainsi le cadre légal déjà existant.

Le projet de loi visant à modifier le Code pénal sénégalais a été précisé pour inclure deux nouveaux profils dans le cadre de la répression des actes contre nature. Les débats parlementaires indiquent que la loi cible désormais plus spécifiquement ceux qui encouragent ou facilitent ces pratiques, élargissant ainsi la responsabilité pénale. Cette extension législative reflète la pression de certains groupes sociaux et religieux pour une législation plus stricte et exhaustive sur ces questions de mœurs.

Timbuktu Institute - Week 3 - February 2026

Download the full Sahel weather report 

General Abdourahamane Tiani proposes to return to France its share of uranium (63.4%) from a stockpile of 156,000 tonnes accumulated at the Somaïr mine before its nationalisation in June 2025. This announcement, seen as a gesture of clarification in the diplomatic standoff between Niamey and Paris, nevertheless sets a strict limit: all uranium produced after the junta took power remains the exclusive property of Niger, with the authorities claiming to have invested 24 billion CFA francs to maintain operations after Orano's withdrawal. This position illustrates Niger's sovereignist stance on its natural resources, while the legal dispute over ‘expropriation’ and environmental damage continues to fester between the two countries.

Algeria–Niger: An official visit to seal reconciliation

General Abdourahamane Tiani's official visit to Algiers marks the end of an ‘abnormal period of coldness’ and the beginning of a ‘cautious resumption of bilateral dialogue’ after months of heightened tensions linked to the July 2023 coup and migration management. Welcomed with honours by President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, the Nigerien transitional leader, supported by a high-ranking ministerial delegation (Defence, Energy, Petroleum), is seeking to transform this diplomatic détente into a solid operational partnership. Beyond the symbolic return of ambassadors, the challenge is to reactivate structural projects such as the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP), fibre optic interconnection and border security cooperation, while repositioning Algeria as an essential regional mediator in the face of Niger's isolation. This summit demonstrates a mutual political will to stabilise the Sahel-Saharan region, although the realisation of these ambitions remains dependent on the ability of both states to overcome administrative burdens and local political fragilities.

AES Unified Force: A rise in strength to 6,000 men

Faced with the resurgence of jihadist threats and the use of advanced technology by ‘mercenaries’, General Abdourahamane Tiani announced that the strength of the Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) would be increased from 5,000 to 6,000 soldiers. This strategic increase aims to strengthen the operational capacity of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger to secure the Sahel region, which has been marked by recent attacks such as the one against Niamey airport. Beyond simply increasing troop numbers, the alliance is focusing on greater coordination of intelligence and logistics and on raising awareness among defence forces of new types of asymmetric threats. This military reinforcement is accompanied by a desire for broader integration, including the fight against disinformation and the creation of common economic institutions, despite persistent challenges related to financing and the establishment of an operational supranational framework.