Source : Sahel weather February 2025

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For over a year, human rights organizations have been denouncing the intimidation, kidnappings and enforced disappearances of civil society players, most of them members of the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution (FNDC). The most recent kidnapping involved the coordinator of the Forum des forces sociales de Guinée, who was found a few hours later, abandoned by his captors in a "critical state", according to his lawyers. This restriction of Guinean civic space follows the transitional regime's suspected desire to remain in power after the 2021 coup d'état. While the transitional authorities had hinted at a return to constitutional order at the end of the transitional period, the rhetoric has become quite different. At a time when political demonstrations are banned for the opposition, supporters and movements backing the transitional president are mobilizing to promote his candidacy for the next presidential election.

Meanwhile, the main opposition parties are in turmoil. The Union des forces démocratiques de la Guinée (UFDG) had announced that its congress would be held in April.  A few days ago, the Cercle des amis de Gaoul (CERAG- UFDG), a movement affiliated to the UFDG and supporting the government spokesman and Minister of Transport of the current regime in Guinea, and also a member of the UFDG, announced its national congress, to be held a week before the official date of the congress announced by the party (UFDG). Behind these announcements lies a leadership battle between Cellou Dalein Diallo, opponent and exiled president of the UFDG, and Ousmane Gaoul Diallo, candidate for the party presidency and minister in Guinea's transitional government. In the ranks of the Rassemblement du Peuple de Guinée (RPG), there has been total silence since the fall of Alpha Condé, while some of the leading figures former ruling party's are facing Guinean justice on charges of embezzlement of public funds, illicit enrichment and money laundering. The President of the Union des forces républicaines (UFR), who is also in exile, last spoke at the beginning of the year. As a reminder, he was reacting to statements made by the President of the Transition during his New Year's speech.