Timbuktu Institute – July 2026

The Timbuktu Institute has announced the launch of the Fragility Observatory of West and Central Africa for Resilience and Democracy (FOWARD), a new research and advocacy tool dedicated to understanding the dynamics of fragility across West and Central Africa.

Designed to address the lack of institutions capable of producing reliable data and informing public policy, the Observatory builds on more than a decade of expertise and the Timbuktu Institute’s deep local roots within the region’s communities, particularly those most vulnerable to insecurity.

A Region Under Strain, Shifting Instabilities

For several years now, West and Central Africa have been experiencing a wave of instability that weighs heavily on local communities and continues to hinder social and economic development efforts. While most of the violence and insecurity was initially concentrated in the Sahel region, driven by the activities of violent extremist groups, there are now numerous indications that the coastal countries of West Africa—as well as certain areas of Central Africa—are just as vulnerable to these risks.

Drawing on more than a decade of recognized expertise in research and action in the Sahel region, the Timbuktu Institute has developed or participated in several programs in the coastal countries of West and Central Africa aimed at fostering learning through public policy, by capitalizing on lessons learned from the Sahel to implement more effective prevention and response measures. It is precisely this fieldwork, conducted over ten years, that convinced the Institute to structure its expertise through a sustainable and systematic tool in addition to existing mechanisms.

The Fragility Paradigm: A More Relevant Framework

For a long time, various forms of violence and political instability were cited almost exclusively to explain insecurity in West and Central Africa. In recent years, however, research has gradually shifted toward the fragility paradigm. As an approach that is more long-term, holistic, and evidence-based, this paradigm offers greater practical and operational relevance by providing a better understanding of the multiple dynamics that can either consolidate or undermine peace and stability.

In the region, factors such as climate change, gender-based violence, conflicts over land and natural resources, and the erosion of democratic institutions are now recognized as essential keys to understanding the ongoing instability. Adding to this already complex equation is the presence of new external actors, particularly in the security sector and its geopolitical implications—a troubling development that must also be taken into account. A strictly security-focused analysis, centered on violent extremism, terrorism, and only visible forms of violence, would thus risk overlooking these structural dynamics, which often constitute the true breeding ground for instability. This is why a differentiated approach, taking into account the specificities of each national and subregional context, is essential to produce an analysis that is truly useful to decision-makers.

Helping to Fill an Institutional Gap

Despite the existence of major international and regional initiatives centered on the concept of fragility—such as the Global Fragility Act adopted in 2019, the African Development Bank Group’s Strategy to Address Fragility and Build Resilience in Africa 2022–2026, and the World Bank’s revised FCV Strategy— there remains a need in West and Central Africa for more research institutions capable of collecting and analyzing up-to-date data, producing evidence-based knowledge, and disseminating locally generated insights on fragility, as well as developing quantitative and qualitative tools to capture the complexity of these dynamics and inform public policy.

It is precisely to contribute to these efforts that FOWARD was designed, with the ambition of promoting more evidence-based decision-making to address various forms of fragility and to better conceptualize and support resilience.

Access and legitimacy built on a decade of fieldwork

One of the Timbuktu Institute’s most distinctive strengths lies in its ability to operate where many research institutions—particularly international ones—can no longer deploy directly. Thanks to its extensive network of locally based associate researchers, the Institute maintains access to areas that are sometimes difficult to reach due to insecurity.

However, this access would not be sufficient if it were not backed by genuine legitimacy among local populations. This local presence is reinforced by the legitimacy and trust built up over time with the communities, with whom the Institute has maintained, for a decade, ongoing channels of dialogue that are regularly updated to incorporate the most recent developments as well as the region’s shifting political and security dynamics. It is this patiently built trust that makes it possible not only to collect reliable data but also to share the analyses with the communities themselves, with a focus on dialogue rather than simply extracting information.

The Observatory’s Objectives

FOWARD aims to build, manage, and disseminate action-oriented knowledge on factors of fragility in West and Central Africa, while developing synergies among various stakeholders to promote resilience and mitigate insecurity by strengthening community resilience. More specifically, the Observatory’s mission is to:

• Monitor, through early warning and the detection of weak signals, the medium- and long-term evolution of the mechanisms, dynamics, and processes leading to conflicts, political instability, or security threats affecting the Sahel and West and Central Africa, with a view to providing early warning and better anticipating crises and instability;

• Promote evidence-based decision-making through robust and up-to-date data, by conducting research on factors of fragility and dynamics of resilience;

• Continuously collect and interpret multi-source, qualitative, and quantitative data on security dynamics in West and Central Africa, using a holistic approach that integrates sociopolitical, religious, environmental, economic, and climate dimensions, among others;

• Conduct thematic research and publish briefs, reports, and studies aimed at advocating with decision-makers and communities;

• Formulate recommendations for governments, regional and international organizations, and actors operating in the region.

A methodology based on continuous monitoring and early warning

Methodologically, FOWARD relies on the continuous collection of multi-source data—both qualitative and quantitative—on security dynamics in West and Central Africa. It adopts a resolutely holistic approach that integrates sociopolitical, religious, environmental, economic, climate, and gender factors, rather than limiting itself to a single security framework.

This methodology relies on the detection of weak signals: the Timbuktu Institute’s network of associate researchers and correspondents on the ground enables continuous monitoring of the evolution of mechanisms and processes that could lead to conflicts, political instability, or security threats in the medium and long term. This daily monitoring work then informs all of the Observatory’s analyses and publications, while enabling the gradual development of a robust network for improved, long-term data collection.

Four Strategic Areas of Action

To achieve these objectives, FOWARD structures its work around four strategic areas:

1. Strategic monitoring and early warning, through the detection of weak signals to inform more effective prevention strategies;

2. Knowledge generation, evidence-based data collection, and learning management through public policies and the sharing of best practices;

3. Promotion of multi-stakeholder collaboration and dialogue to foster inclusive and integrated efforts to address fragility and strengthen resilience;

4. Integration of climate and gender dimensions in the fight against fragility and the promotion of resilience.

FIND: A Scientific Tool for Prevention

To take a differentiated approach to its analysis of fragility, the Timbuktu Institute is developing a flagship tool: FIND (Fragility Index in West Africa). Designed as a scientific tool with a preventive focus, it will provide an assessment of factors contributing to fragility and resilience in the region. In line with the Observatory’s multidisciplinary and prevention-oriented approach, it will be developed through the collaborative efforts of experts from various disciplinary fields, in order to capture as comprehensively as possible the factors contributing to fragility, but above all the dynamics of resilience, which are often less well documented.

FIND will draw on both quantitative and qualitative sources and will notably build upon the ongoing monitoring reports produced by the Observatory in collaboration with its network of partners in the region. It is set to become a reference tool for conflict and violence prevention, as well as a means of addressing the quantitative data gap that remains a major obstacle to truly informed public policy today.

Diverse “products” to support action

FOWARD plans to develop several categories of products, each serving a specific purpose:

COMON (Continuous Monitoring Reports) — continuous monitoring reports, in the form of briefings, reports, and occasional papers, providing near-real-time snapshots of the security situation. This constitutes the Observatory’s day-to-day activity, which informs all of its other outputs.

AFAR (Annual Fragility and Resilience Report) — the annual report on fragility and resilience, which will provide an annual assessment of the security situation in West and Central Africa, outline the challenges and key actors involved, highlight innovations in public policy, and give a voice to peace and security experts as well as community leaders, particularly young people and women.

Policy Briefs — more analytical and focused on the medium term, intended for decision-makers at the local, national, and regional levels, and which may also present lessons learned from initiatives implemented in the region.

WIFI (Women in Fragility Initiative) — an initiative dedicated to fully integrating a gender perspective into the understanding of and response to fragility, which also includes components for capacity building, leadership development, and women’s empowerment.

The FRIENDS (Fragility and Resilience Inclusive Engagements & Dialogues) meetings — multi-stakeholder dialogue sessions bringing together government officials, academics, community leaders, security forces, and civil society, with a particular focus on women’s and youth organizations.

A Vision: Making Knowledge a Lever for Sustainable Peace and Resilience

With the launch of FOWARD, the Timbuktu Institute reaffirms a conviction that has driven it since its inception: to make knowledge a central lever for conflict prevention and the building of sustainable peace in West and Central Africa. The stated ambition is to equip the region—through a holistic approach and endogenous strategies—with a research and action tool for building resilience that is commensurate with the challenges of fragility it faces today.