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The year 2022 was characterised by the accelerated deterioration of the socio-political and security context in Mali. In addition to tensions with France, ECOWAS, the G5 Sahel, Niger and, most recently, Ivory Coast, the Malian transition has faced much internal turbulence in recent months. Inflation and the rise in the price of basic necessities, the tug of war with the signatory movements of the Peace Agreement, and the tensions with MINUSMA are evidence of a strategy that does not help to normalise relations with the countries of the sub-region and with the international community. The recent ban on NGOs receiving French funding, the muzzling of politicians and a certain instrumentalisation of the justice system are, among other things, signs of a tense climate that is not conducive to a calmer socio-political climate.

The latest statements by the signatory movements of the Peace and Reconciliation Agreement from Imam Dicko denouncing certain excesses of Cherif Madani Haidara or the "pro-junta" activist Ben le Cerveau, as well as the artist Rasbath, which range from classic warnings to strong criticisms and even threats, are clear signals of a poisonous socio-political climate. Similarly, the eventful return of Imam Dicko from Saudi Arabia just after his appointment as a permanent member of the World Islamic League and the Ulema Committee does not augur well for relations with the current authorities.

This study will first analyse the rather tense socio-political context coinciding with numerous upheavals in the North in a context of mutation of the jihadist movements and recomposition of forces.

It will then look at the way in which the ongoing competition between terrorist movements is stirring up new struggles for influence, making it even more difficult for the transitional authorities to secure the territory and resolve the Wagner equation.

Finally, the complex recomposition of forces in the North of Mali and the future of the Algiers Agreement will be discussed, the effective implementation of which, paradoxically, does not seem to be in the interest of any of the parties involved.

[1] See the letter from the CMA to the mediation leader on 12/10/2022 and the CSP-PSD communiqué of 12/20/2022

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Dernière modification le dimanche, 22 janvier 2023 12:55