As part of its recent interventions in Guinea Bissau for the establishment of an "Observatory for Peace", Timbuktu Institute has technically and scientifically supported the realization of the first research covering the entire territory of Guinea Bissau on the factors of radicalization that will soon be published and launched during an international conference.

In fact, this leading think tank that operates at the regional level and the Institute Marquês de Valle Flôr, which signed a cooperation agreement last October on the sidelines of the Lisbon Conference, are partners with the Bissau-Guinean League for Human Rights in the framework of capacity building of the project team for the prevention of radicalization in Guinea Bissau.

During the recent mission carried out by Dr. Bakary Sambe in Bissau at the end of November 2022, as part of the establishment of an observatory for peace, the Timbuktu Institute trained the twenty-six focal points from all regions of Guinea-Bissau on the techniques of prevention of violent extremism and community conflicts’ resolution.

For Dr. Sambe, this project financed and supported by the European Union "is part of a holistic approach and the strengthening of a culture of prevention; Guinea Bissau still belonging to the category of countries that must develop a preventive strategy and rely on anticipation in the face of a threat that spares no country in the region.

This is why, according to the director of the Timbuktu Institute, "the next international conference in Bissau, which will be organized on this theme, will have to highlight the need to exchange best practices in terms of prevention and above all to convince governments that in addition to strictly security measures, West African states, and particularly coastal countries, must work to strengthen community resilience.

Lors de la conférence de haut niveau sur la prévention de la violence électorale organisée par le Programme des Nations Unies pour le Développement et qui s’est tenue du 7 au 10 décembre dernier en Guinée-Bissau, le directeur du Timbuktu Institute Dr Bakary Sambe a appelé à se prémunir des crises institutionnelles. Il soutient qu’elles sont à l’origine des violences électorales.

Lors du premier panel, le Dr Sambe est intervenu pour expliquer les ressorts et origines de la violence électorale en Afrique de l’Ouest. Pointant du doigt la non transparence des processus électoraux, le rôle de la justice et des médias, il a appelé à « une action préventive qui doit porter une attention particulière à ces crises institutionnelles car la crise malienne ou encore celle ivoirienne récemment est partie d’une crise institutionnelle ».

La Guinée-Bissau, par la tenue pacifique de ses élections législatives du 10 mars 2019, a montré le bon exemple et rappelé l’importance que ses acteurs nationaux attachent à la stabilité politique et socio-économique du pays. Plus de 200 acteurs, dont plusieurs nationaux, étaient présents à cette conférence. Parmi eux : des représentants de l’Etat, des leaders religieux, des représentants de la société civile, des représentants de partis politiques, le représentant de la Cédéao en Guinée-Bissau, une délégation de l’Union Européenne, etc.

Dans l’optique de d'approfondir la pratique démocratique au sein de laquelle la tenue périodique d'élections libres, équitables et transparentes demeurent essentielles, le Timbuktu Institute continuera à accompagner les pays de la sous-région sur la prévention de ces violences électorales, qui sont au final une variante des violences politiques multiformes que connaît la région.

On the sidelines of the US-Africa Leaders Summit, the Regional Director of the Timbuktu Institute took part in a panel discussion on the political and security situation in the Sahel and West African littoral states on December 12 in Washington, D.C. The event was organized by the International Republican Institute (IRI), and was attended by IRI President Dan Twining and facilitated by Mr. Aboudou H. Berthé, Director of the Sahel and Coastal Countries Program, Dr. Bakary Sambe proposed, beyond the management of security imperatives, a preventive approach against violent extremism in coastal countries that would be based on strengthening community resilience.

"It is necessary to develop a preventive approach in coastal countries where prevention is still possible and to give the dignity of solutions to endogenous community strategies," recommends Dr. Bakary Sambe. According to him, "this approach will have the added value of mitigating the all-military or all-security strategies that have not yielded convincing results in the Sahel, given that the jihadist threat has even spread”. The coastal countries of West Africa seem to have become the new expansion zone for Sahelian jihadism through what the director of the Timbuktu Institute calls the "epicenter spillover phenomenon." In Benin, Togo, and Côte d'Ivoire, for example, multiple incursions have recently been recorded in the northernmost regions of these two countries. According to Dr. Bakary Sambe, it has become unanimous that it is imperative to "work on strengthening community resilience through active prevention work”. It is in the wake of this and the Global Fragility Act launched by the United States that IRI organized this panel on the issue of violent extremism. This exchange took place on the sidelines of the African leaders' summit held from December 13 to 15, 2022 in Washington.

As "an actor that can still gain the trust of local populations and communities with regard to its role in the development of prevention strategies in the G5 Sahel countries," Dr. Sambe actively invites the United States to invest more in prevention and especially "the strengthening of community resilience by promoting endogenous initiatives to overcome the conflict between international conceptions and local perceptions”.

One of the strengths of the American approach in recent years has been to distinguish the prevention of violent extremism from the fight against terrorism, which ultimately aims to eliminate targets. "But targets can regenerate if the structural causes that led to terrorism have not disappeared," says Dr. Sambe. For these reasons, prevention of violent extremism "has the advantage of addressing its causes through means such as dialogue or good governance," he adds. He is convinced that the United States can be of great help in a context where Sahelian populations are increasingly doubtful of the merits of military interventions. Moreover, as Dr. Bakary Sambe points out, "it will take a lot of energy and advocacy with the authorities to install and gain acceptance for a culture of prevention in coastal and West African countries where all-security strategies have dominated for years, even though they have not been able to produce the expected results”.

For a preventive method that effectively involves actors on the ground and especially local communities in coastal countries, IRI should "become more involved in this dimension by strengthening the work begun with the G5 Sahel and the Regional Cell for the Prevention of Radicalization and Violent Extremism (CellRad) and extend this initiative to coastal countries," concludes Dr. Sambe.

Several experts and actors working in Africa attended the event, which was attended by many personalities and decision-makers such as Robert Jenkins of USAID's Bureau for Conflict Prevention and Stabilization and Anne A. Witkowsky Bureau of Conflict & Stabilization Operations at the State Department, along with Dan Twining, President of the International Republican Institute.

The IRI is an organization dedicated to supporting the growth of political and economic freedoms, good governance and human rights around the world by educating citizens, strengthening political parties and governments on the values and practices of democracy.

En marge du US-Africa Leaders Summit, le 12 décembre dernier à Washington, le Directeur régional du Timbuktu Institute a pris part à un panel sur la situation politique et sécuritaire au Sahel et dans les États du littoral ouest-africain. Lors de cet évènement organisé par l'International Republican Institute (IRI), en présence de son Président Dan Twining et facilité par M. Aboudou H. Berthé, directeur du Programme Sahel et Pays côtiers, Dr Bakary Sambe a proposé, au-delà de la gestion des impératifs sécuritaires, une démarche préventive contre l’extrémisme violent dans les pays côtiers qui serait basée sur le renforcement de la résilience communautaire.

« Il faut développer dès maintenant une approche préventive dans les pays côtiers où la prévention est encore possible et donner la dignité de solutions aux stratégies communautaires endogènes », recommande d’emblée le Dr Bakary Sambe. Selon lui, « cette démarche aura pour valeur ajoutée de mitiger les stratégies du tout-militaire ou tout-sécuritaire qui n’a pas donné des résultats probants au Sahel vu que la menace djihadiste s’est même étendue ». Les pays côtiers de l’Afrique de l’Ouest semblent être devenus la nouvelle zone d’expansion du djihadisme sahélien par ce que le directeur du Timbuktu Institute appelle le « phénomène de débordement des épicentres » Au Bénin, au Togo comme en Côte-d’Ivoire par exemple, de multiples incursions ont été récemment enregistrées dans les régions les plus septentrionales de ces deux pays. Selon Dr. Bakary Sambe, le constat est devenu unanime qu’il faut impérativement « travailler sur le renforcement des résiliences communautaires par un travail actif de prévention ». C’est dans ce sillage et celui du Global Fragility Act lancé par les États-Unis, que l’IRI a organisé ce panel sur la problématique de l’extrémisme violent. Cet échange a eu lieu en marge du sommet des leaders africains qui s’est tenu du 13 au 15 décembre 2022 à Washington.

En tant « qu’acteur pouvant encore gagner la confiance des populations et communautés locales au regard de son rôle dans l’élaboration des stratégies de préventions dans les pays du G5 Sahel », Dr Sambe invite activement les Etats-Unis à s’investir davantage dans la prévention et surtout « le renforcement des résiliences communautaires par la valorisation des initiatives endogènes pour sortir du conflit entre les conceptions internationales et les perceptions locales ».

L’un des atouts de l’approche américaine ces dernières années, a été de distinguer la prévention de l’extrémisme violent de la lutte contre le terrorisme qui vise in fine l’élimination des cibles. « Seulement, les cibles peuvent se régénérer si les causes structurelles ayant mené au terrorisme n’ont pas disparu », pointe Dr Sambe. Ce sont donc principalement pour ces raisons que la prévention contre l’extrémisme violent « a comme avantage de s’attaquer à ses causes par le biais des moyens comme le dialogue ou la bonne gouvernance », ajoute-t-il. Etant persuadé que les Etats-Unis peuvent s’avérer d’une grande aide dans un contexte où les populations sahéliennes doutent de plus en plus du bien-fondé des interventions militaires. De plus, comme le souligne Dr. Bakary Sambe, « il faudra beaucoup d’énergie et de plaidoyer auprès des autorités pour installer et faire accepter une culture de prévention dans les pays côtiers et de l’Afrique de l’Ouest où les stratégies du tout-sécuritaire dominent depuis des années bien qu’elle n’ait pas pu produire les résultats escomptés »

Pour une méthode préventive impliquant effectivement les acteurs de terrain et surtout les communautés locales, dans les pays côtiers, l’IRI devrait « mieux s’impliquer dans cette dimension en renforçant le travail entamé avec le G5 Sahel et la Cellule Régionale de prévention de la Radicalisation et de l’Extrémisme violent (CellRad) et étendre cette initiative aux pays côtiers », conclut Dr Sambe.

Plusieurs experts et acteurs intervenant en Afrique avaient assisté à cet évènement rehaussé par de nombreuses personnalités et des décideurs tels que Robert Jenkins du Bureau for Conflict Prevention and Stabilization de l’USAID et Anne A. Witkowsky Bureau of Conflict & Stabilization Operations au Département d’Etat, aux côtés de Dan Twining, Président de l’International Republican Institute

L’IRI est une organisation qui a pour objectif de soutenir la croissance des libertés politiques et économiques, de la bonne gouvernance et des droits humains à travers le monde par l'éducation des citoyens, le renforcement des partis politiques et des gouvernements sur les valeurs et les pratiques de la démocratie.

By Amadou Tidiane Cissé

On the eve of the Africa-US Summit, Timbuktu Institute publishes this article by Lt. Colonel Amadou Tidiane CISSE. This senior Senegalese customs official is since 2019 Head of the Office of Security and Coordination of the Fight against Fraud at the Directorate General of Customs of Senegal. He has held positions as Auditor and Head of Sections at the Port of Dakar as well as Inspector Editor at the Directorate of Studies and Legislation. He is a graduate of the National School of Administration of Senegal and holds a Master's degree in Sociology and a Master's degree in Oil and Gas. He is the author of "Terrorism beyond borders. New Challenges for Customs cooperation on Security in the Sahel” (2021) foreword by Dr. Bakary Sambe. and another essay entitled "Off-shore States and Petro-terrorism: Geopolitical Implications of Oil and Gas discoveries and Security Challenges in the Gulf of Guinea” (2022).

In one week's time, the U.S.-Africa Summit opens in Washington. The White House statement announcing the Summit referred to it as an opportunity for the United States of America and Africa to revitalise their partnerships: ‘The Summit will demonstrate the United States’ enduring commitment to Africa, and will underscore the importance of U.S.-Africa relations and increased cooperation on shared global priorities.’

The 2014 Obama-era summit was the first on the U.S. diplomatic agenda, and it focused on the theme: ‘Investing in the Next Generation’. By inviting African heads of state to Washington nearly a decade later, President Biden intends to create a new dynamic in U.S. relations with the continent, this time with a stronger focus on trade and investment. It must be said that until more or less recently, American involvement on the African continent was limited to post-conflict humanitarian or health emergencies, notably including President G. W. Bush's initiative to mobilise 48 billion dollars to respond to the AIDS pandemic in Africa.

President Trump did not visit Africa once during his entire presidency. Africa was never a strategic priority for him. In fact, he made no secret of his lack of interest in the continent. His wife, Melania Trump, confined herself to visiting a few USAID projects in Ghana, Malawi, and Egypt in 2018, which were geared towards the promotion of children's health and well-being, before ending her visit to Africa in a Kenyan nature sanctuary, where she bottle-fed baby elephants.

However, the passing of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) by the U.S. Congress in 2000 already reflected a desire to develop trade with Africa by allowing more than 6,000 products to enter the U.S. market duty-free. Following the 2014 summit, Congress modernised the trade promotion programme, for which 40 African states are eligible, and extended it until 2025.

To boost economic growth in Africa, a bilateral development fund, the Millennium Challenge Corporation, has been set up, mobilising $8.8 billion in funding since 2004 for 25 African countries. The $500 million Prosper Africa initiative, which was launched in 2020, aims to support African companies seeking to penetrate the U.S. market, which boasts a population of 300 million and a purchasing power of $23 trillion. Prosper Africa provides African countries with a one-stop shop that delivers a range of trade and investment services. The U.S. Power Africa initiative aims to promote investment in Africa's power sector by injecting more than 30,000 megawatts of clean energy and providing electricity to more than 60 million African households and businesses.

These major economic initiatives (AGOA, MCA, Prosper Africa) undertaken by the U.S. administration in support of the African continent mark an important turning point in U.S.-Africa cooperation. President Biden is also counting on the continental free trade area to stimulate stronger economic growth in Africa.

In 2021, U.S. imports from Africa were estimated at $37 billion (vs. $23.7 billion in 2020). African trade goods exported to the U.S. totalled $26.7 billion that same year (vs. $21.9 billion in 2020). Although trade between the two continents has grown significantly over the past decade, it remains low overall compared to China's estimated $114 billion in exports to Africa in 2020 (a peak of $155 billion was recorded in 2015).

The future of the U.S.-Africa partnership is bright, especially with the numerous oil and gas discoveries on the continent and the need to diversify the United States' hydrocarbon supply sources and reduce U.S. allies' energy dependence on Russian gas, due to the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict.

On the occasion of the recent publication of the United States’ National Security Strategy in October 2022, U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spoke in the following terms: ‘The [...] National Security Strategy lays out a vision for a free, open, secure, and prosperous world and a comprehensive plan to realize it. This is not just our vision, but one shared by many other countries that seek to live in a world that respects the foundational principles of self-determination, territorial integrity, and political independence; where countries are free to determine their own foreign policy choices; information is allowed to flow freely; universal human rights are upheld; and the global economy operates on a level playing field – providing opportunity for all. ’

The new National Security Strategy articulates the main thrust of U.S. cooperation in Africa, particularly in the area of security. It also addresses the imperative of overcoming the divide between U.S. domestic and foreign policy, because the two are so seamlessly intertwined in reality. That is why the Biden administration is working to build an ever more modern and powerful military to protect vital U.S. interests and prevent the outbreak of conflicts around the world that could impact them. For example, the Strategy supports the efforts of African countries and regions facing political conflicts, attacks by terrorist groups and humanitarian crises, such as Cameroon, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia, and the Sahel.

Until now, as Maya Kandel rightly pointed out, the dogma of U.S. strategy in Africa was based on the 'light footprint' concept, i.e., the absence of direct engagement by American troops, leadership from the sidelines, and intervention through intermediary partners.

Biden's announcement signals the end of an American foreign policy that has long relied on its historical ally, France, which has traditionally held greater influence in sub-Saharan Africa.

Faced with the current stability challenges, the U.S. administration is promoting security cooperation with a view to countering the terrorist threat that undermines the stability of African states and addressing the structural causes of terrorism. This new American approach is a boon for Africa, which is plagued by multifaceted crises including rebellions, transnational and local organised crime, and terrorism.

The Central African Republic has been embroiled in conflict since the Seleka armed opposition seized its capital, Bangui. Despite the presence of MINUSCA, it is still struggling to overcome the ravages of violence. Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has been torn between the forces of the national unity government and those of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who controls the east of the country. Sudan and South Sudan are fighting for control of oil-rich border areas. In North Kivu province, the March 23 Movement (M23) of 2012 has taken up arms anew against the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC), which accuses neighbouring Rwanda of supporting it. In the far north of Ethiopia, the loyalist army faces off against the rebels of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Somalia was plagued for decades by tribal violence before succumbing in 2004 to an insurgency led by the Union of Islamic Courts. Al-Shabab jihadist fighters attack Mozambique and threaten the stability of this hydrocarbon-rich country. Boko Haram's terrorist activities in Nigeria's Borno State have spread to the surrounding countries of Cameroon, Niger, and Chad, putting the Lake Chad Basin region in the eye of the jihadist storm. Armed groups affiliated with the Islamic State and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb have transformed the face of the Sahel to the point where Mali and Niger are now among the countries with the highest terrorism indexes in the world, according to data collected by the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism at the University of Maryland. In its 2021 ranking, Burkina Faso stood fourth in the world behind Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia.

In light of the foregoing, it is self-evident that security imperatives must be addressed if the United States is to build a mutually beneficial economic partnership with Africa. To achieve this, the U.S. will rely on two key levers: AFRICOM and the African Standby Force (ASF).

The United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) is the most recent of the operational military command centres set up by the U.S. Department of Defense around the world. The limited geostrategic interests of the United States on the continent doubtless justified placing Africa under the aegis of the United States European Command based in Stuttgart, Germany. This was because African countries have maintained cooperative ties with the former French colonial power, leaving other foreign powers very little scope for military presence. Alain Fogue Tedom has written about the negative view that the United States takes of the former colonial powers' political and economic monopoly over Africa. More specifically, he feels that the geostrategic dimension of Washington's challenge to France's tutelage is unambiguous, especially since free political and economic competition in Africa and elsewhere in the world have been established since the end of the Cold War.

The stance taken by the United States was made even clearer when the historic alliance between France and the United States did not stop President Biden from scuttling a contract for the supply of twelve conventionally powered submarines worth €56 billion, signed between France and Australia in 2016, and negotiating a new deal with Australia for the delivery of nuclear-powered submarines developed using cutting-edge American and British technology.

The United States should take an even bolder and more consistent approach to its new African security strategy by locating AFRICOM in an African country like Senegal. A U.S. command post located closer to the theatres of operation would have the benefit of enhancing the sense of security of both Africans and Americans based in Africa, as well as warding off the threat of terrorism. The Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership provides a framework for security cooperation with the Maghreb and Sahel countries in the areas of border surveillance, countering the financing of terrorism, and strengthening the operational capacity of African armed forces.

American expertise in international mediation recently triumphed with the historic agreement between Lebanon and Israel on their maritime border dispute, resulting in the sharing of the Qana and Karish gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean. The pacification of the maritime borders shared by the two officially warring countries illustrates American expertise in resolving conflicts such as those in Africa. This diplomatic success coincides with the cessation of hostilities agreement reached in Pretoria between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan rebels, thanks to the mediation of the AU representative for the Horn of Africa.

These successes in the midst of a bleak global geopolitical landscape demonstrate that the United States and the AU can bring their weight to bear to end deadly conflicts, find compromises between warring states and set them on the path to lasting peace.

The African Standby Force (ASF) must be part of the new security strategy being developed on the other side of the Atlantic, entering into an operational phase twenty years after its launch and establishing a more appropriate and immediately operational military intervention framework to deal with the many security crises on the African continent, particularly in countries experiencing asymmetric conflicts.

In 2010, Shakira performed the official World Cup anthem 'This Time for Africa' with the Cameroonian band Golden Sounds and the South African band Freshly Ground, highlighting the power of football to unite diverse peoples around a shared interest.

President Obama understood that the new dynamics in Africa were bringing about changes that would shift the major geopolitical balances. Five years after Shakira, he spoke as follows from the rostrum of the African Union: 'I believe Africa’s rise is also important to the entire world. We will not be able to meet the challenges of our time—from ensuring a strong global economy to facing down violent extremism to combating climate change to ending hunger and extreme poverty—without the voices and contributions of one billion Africans. '

The Washington summit will have fulfilled its purpose if the United States comes out of it with a bold resolve to back up the new economic partnership it wants to promote over the next decade—which is shaping up to be a decisive one—with a security strategy that places the African continent and the asymmetrical conflicts that are shaking Libya, the Sahel, and the Lake Chad Basin and threatening the countries of the Gulf of Guinea and southern Africa, squarely in the forefront of its major strategic priorities.

May Allah bless the Africa-USA Summit!

*Amadou Tidiane Cissé

Senior Customs Inspector

DAKAR