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Arrivée des régimes militaires, inséparabilité des imaginaires religieux et nationalistes, revendications identitaires… Au Sahel, les conditions propices à la montée de l’islam politique semblent désormais réunies
Des femmes brandissent le Coran lors d’une manifestation contre le blasphème à Bamako, le 4 novembre 2022, à l’appel du Haut Conseil islamique du Mali, après la diffusion d’une vidéo virale d’un homme « insultant » le texte sacré.
Au Sahel, le terrorisme est une tragédie sécuritaire dont le caractère spectaculaire détourne souvent l’attention des décideurs d’un autre phénomène inquiétant : la montée de l’islam politique. Malgré une approche différenciée, les deux phénomènes nourrissent pourtant le même dessein : la destruction de l’entité étatique.
Destruction de l’État
Inattendu, violent, dévastateur, le terrorisme mise sur le spectaculaire là où l’islam politique vise une déstructuration progressive des fragiles États de la région en sapant, par la délégitimation, leurs fondements démocratiques et républicains. À cela s’ajoute un islamo-nationalisme lié à l’inséparabilité conjoncturelle entre les imaginaires religieux et nationalistes à l’heure des revendications identitaires.
Ces dernières rencontrent l’adhésion de certains caciques de la gauche traditionnelle, qui rêvaient de « grand soir », et celle des mouvances salafistes appelant au retour aux « valeurs ». Nul autre terreau ne pouvait être plus favorable aux alliances de circonstance entre des « anti-impérialistes » et des acteurs islamistes, tels Cerfi au Burkina Faso ou Izala au Niger.
L’arrivée des régimes militaires a ainsi mis en lumière de possibles connexions entre militaro-populisme et islamo-nationalisme. À Niamey, où Izala s’impose au sein même de la haute administration, les grands corps de l’État prêtent serment sous les Allah akbar des chefs de la junte. À Ouagadougou, les généraux rivalisent d’ardeur dans la récitation du Coran, ovationnés par les troupes et les foules idolâtrant un certain IB [Ibrahim Traoré]. Sa relation antérieure avec les mouvements islamiques et l’imaginaire de la « mission salvatrice » d’un musulman « enfin » arrivé au pouvoir favorisent une sainte alliance entre casernes et mosquées d’un pays majoritairement musulman. En 2014, sous Yacouba Isaac Zida, chef de l’État de transition après la destitution du président Blaise Compaoré, la communauté musulmane manifestait déjà son désir d’être mieux représentée dans les hautes sphères de l’État.
Alliance entre casernes et mosquées
C’est souvent du chaos qu’émergent les messies. Les échecs des régimes « démocratiques » successifs ont paradoxalement fait des coups d’État des moments de respiration intronisant des juntes aux solutions « magiques ». Pourtant, le Niger, le Mali et le Burkina Faso cumulent chacun pas moins de trente ans de régimes militaires, lesquels n’ont jamais pu empêcher ni la corruption ni la mal-gouvernance, et encore moins l’insécurité.
Les longues années de désengagement de l’État depuis les ajustements structurels ont aussi favorisé la montée en puissance d’organisations et d’ONG religieuses investissant des secteurs névralgiques, tels l’éducation, le travail social et les politiques de jeunesse. De plus, les courants islamistes se sont longtemps engouffrés dans la brèche de l’« antisystème » et de la critique du modèle démocratique, qui peine à réaliser les rêves de développement ainsi que les promesses de sécurité et de stabilité. Dans une parfaite stratégie de récupération des frustrations accumulées, les courants salafistes se départissent de leur caractère « importé », malgré l’influence des pays du Golfe. Ils veulent faire figure de réalité « endogène », s’inscrivant aussi dans la problématique – politiquement porteuse – de contestation de l’Occident impérialiste et « néolibéral ».
Endogénéisation du salafisme
Nous sommes désormais à l’ère de l’endogénéisation d’un salafisme ouest-africain et sahélien, avec une stratégie de normalisation à la faveur d’une puissante vague de souverainisme qui ne néglige plus aucun levier. On doit s’interroger sur les capacités d’un tel courant à se poser en recours crédible après l’échec, prévisible, des régimes militaires.
Les tombeurs des régimes civils « incompétents » sont-ils sûrs de ne pas faire le lit d’un militantisme islamique surfant sur le populisme ambiant et peut-être sur leurs échecs futurs pour incarner l’alternative ? Auquel cas les sociétés civiles, bridées par la forte réduction de l’espace démocratique ou embrigadées par des militaires, ne pourront plus arrêter cette vague qui s’annonce encore plus dévastatrice pour les États fragiles de la région.
The Fragility Forum 2024 (FF2024) is a high-level event organized by the World Bank to be held in a hybrid format from February 27 to 29, 2024 in Washington, DC. Complementing this three-day program, a Partnership Day will take place on March 1, 2024 highlighting the importance of collaboration in addressing the multidimensional challenges related to Fragility, Conflict and Violence. Partnership Day will provide a platform for dialogue and discussion led by key partners.
It is within this framework that the Timbuktu Institute - African Center for Peace Studies has proposed an event in the form of a round tableinspired by the experiences developed by the Institute in the Sahel and in coastal countries in terms of community involvement and approaches to mitigate top-down strategies. Part of the "Fragility Observatory" launched by the Institute, this discussion will focus on listening to local communities and taking greater account of local initiatives, as well as the relevance of endogenous solutions and strategies, particularly in building resilience to the vulnerabilities and fragilities affecting various countries in the Sahel and coastal Africa.
This panel discussion will focus on the theme: "The role of local communities in building resilience and preventing conflicts that may affect vulnerable groups (women, young people, etc.)".
Coordinated and moderated by Dr. Bakary Sambe, Founder and Regional Director of the Timbuktu Institute, this panel will see the participation of :
Amb. Oumou Sall Seck- Mayor of Goundam, Mujeres por Africa - (Mali)
Ms. Cendrine Nama - Activist/ Executive Director CORTEX (Burkina Faso)
Dr. Abdourahamane Dicko - Zinder University - (Niger)
Mr. Tazieff Minhas, Association Barika (Benin)
Moderator: Dr. Bakary Sambe, Regional Director, Timbuktu Institute - Dakar (Senegal)
Registration is now open here
#FragilityForum
Le Forum sur la fragilité 2024 (FF2024) est un événement de haut niveau organisé par la Banque mondiale qui se tiendra en format hybride du 27 au 29 février 2024 à Washington, DC. En complément de ce programme de trois jours, une Journée du partenariat aura lieu le 1er mars 2024 soulignant l'importance de la collaboration pour relever les défis multidimensionnels liés à la Fragilité, aux conflits et à la violence. La Journée du partenariat offrira une plateforme de dialogue et de discussions dirigées par des partenaires-clés.
C’est dans ce cadre que Timbuktu Institute – African Center for Peace Studies a proposé un évènement sous forme de table ronde inspirée des expériences développées par l’Institut dans le Sahel et dans la pays côtiers en matière d’implication et d’approches communautaires pour mitiger les stratégies top down. Inscrite dans les activités du « Fragility Observatory » lancé par l’Institut, cette discussion sera orientée vers l’écoute des communautés locales et une meilleure prise en compte des initiatives locales de même que la pertinence des solutions et stratégies endogènes notamment dans le renforcement de la résilience face aux vulnérabilités et aux fragilités affectant divers pays du Sahel et d’Afrique côtière.
Cette table ronde portera sur le thème : « Rôle des communautés locales dans le renforcement de la résilience et la prévention des conflits pouvant affecter les groupes vulnérables (femmes, jeunes, etc.) »
Coordonné et animé par Dr. Bakary Sambe, Fondateur et Directeur Régional du Timbuktu Institute ce panel verra la participation de :
Amb. Oumou Sall Seck– Mayor of Goundam, Mujeres por Africa – (Mali)
Ms. Cendrine Nama -Militante/ Directrice executive CORTEX (Burkina Faso)
Dr. Abdourahamane Dicko – Zinder University - (Niger)
Mr. Tazieff Minhas, Association Barika (Bénin)
Modération : Dr. Bakary Sambe, Directeur Régional, Timbuktu Institute – Dakar (Sénégal)
Les inscriptions sont désormais ouvertesici
#FragilityForum
Since 2012, the Sahel region, with its immense economic potential, has been the scene of an unprecedented crisis, which is now giving rise to economic, political and social challenges. This situation has led to security problems, aggravated by the rise of violent extremism and inter-community conflicts. A crisis context that prevails in a region where women suffer from a low level of involvement in both political life and crisis resolution processes. Long considered the most efficient and functional regional community, ECOWAS is coming under increasing criticism. These tend to undermine and call into question its influence over its member states, particularly since the coups d'état in Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
Already at the bottom of the ladder, women in the ECOWAS region are increasingly suffering the consequences of political instability and uncertainty. It is against this backdrop that REPSFECO, a sub-regional structure active in peace-building and conflict prevention, is taking the initiative of organizing, in partnership with the Timbuktu Institute, an online reflection meeting on March 6, 2023 on the theme of "Women's action in the ECOWAS region in the face of political transitions ". The objectives of this meeting, in which women and young people will take part, are to:
- Mitigate the potential negative impact of political transitions on women's rights and political participation by focusing on the challenges and opportunities these transitions present for the advancement of women's rights.
- Examine the role and interventions of REPSFECO with a particular focus on how the organization can positively influence the advancement of rights in changing political contexts.
- Identify the levers that REPSFECO can use to promote gender-sensitive electoral processes and a culture of democracy in our countries.
- To devise strategies for collaboration with civil society under the aegis of REPSFECO and the scientific support of the Timbuktu Institute, in order to generate initiatives for the participation of young people and women in the governance of our West African states.
Depuis l’année 2012, la région du Sahel qui dispose d’immenses potentialités économiques est le théâtre d’une crise inédite, qui fait désormais émerger des défis économiques, politiques et sociaux. Cette situation a entraîné des problèmes sécuritaires aggravés par la montée de l’extrémisme violent et de conflits intercommunautaires. Un contexte de crise qui prévaut dans une région où les femmes souffrent d’une faible implication aussi bien dans la vie politique que les processus de résolution des crises. Longtemps considérée comme la communauté régionale la plus efficiente et fonctionnelle, la CEDEAO essuie de plus en plus de critiques. Celles-ci tendent à fissurer et remettre en cause son influence sur ses Etats membres, qui puis est depuis les coups d'État en Guinée, au Mali, Burkina Faso et Niger.
Déjà en bas de l’échelle, les femmes de l’espace CEDEAO subissent de plus belle, les conséquences de ces instabilités et incertitudes politiques. C’est dans ce contexte que le REPSFECO, structure sous-régionale active dans la consolidation de la paix et la prévention des conflits prend l’initiative d’organiser, en partenariat avec Timbuktu Institute, une rencontre de réflexion en ligne le 6 mars 2023 sur le thème « L’action des femmes de l’espace CEDEAO à l’épreuve des transitions politiques ». Lors de cette rencontre à laquelle les femmes et jeunes prendront part, les objectifs sont :
- Mitiger les risques d’impact négatif des transitions politiques sur les droits des femmes et leur participation politique en se concentrant sur les défis et opportunités que ces transitions présentent pour l'avancement des droits des femmes.
- Examiner le rôle et les interventions du REPSFECO avec un accent particulier sur la manière dont l'organisation peut influencer positivement l'avancée des droits dans des contextes politiques changeants.
- Identifier les leviers sur lesquels le REPSFECO peut s’appuyer dans la promotion de processus électoraux intégrant la dimension de genre et la culture de la démocratie dans nos États.
- Concevoir des stratégies de collaboration avec la société civile sous l'égide du REPSFECO et l’appui scientifique du Timbuktu Institute afin de susciter des initiatives pour une participation des jeunes et femmes dans la gouvernance de nos Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest.
In this exclusive interview, Dr. Bakary Sambe, Regional Director of the Timbuktu Institute African Center for Peace Studies (Bamako, Dakar, Niamey), highlights the need for dialogue with all Malians as part of the inter-Malian dialogue initiated by the President of the Transition for national reconciliation between all Malians. From Dakar, Dr. Bakary Sambe answers our questions.
Interview.
Mali Tribune: What do you think of the inter-Malian dialogue launched by the President of the Transition during his New Year's address to Malians?
Dr. Bakary Sambe: First of all, we must welcome the call for dialogue launched by the President of the Transition. It's an opportunity for Mali to emerge from the crisis that all stakeholders must seize. Mali needs sincere and inclusive reconciliation to face up to its countless challenges in harmony and national unity. This appeal reflects the good will of the transitional authorities to forge ahead with the national reconciliation process. But it will be vital to ensure that this dialogue includes all stakeholders, including the different components of the armed groups in all their diversity.
Mali Tribune: The CMA armed groups have categorically rejected the idea of dialogue with the Bamako authorities as part of the peace process. How can the CMA be reintegrated into this dialogue?
Dr. B. S.: Everything is still possible to save the situation. In a study carried out by the Timbuktu Institute entitled "La parole aux Maliens, pour la réconciliation", the most striking conclusion was the almost natural predisposition of Malians from all walks of life to overcome the most complex situations when the national interest was at stake. As you know, to reach the Algiers Agreements, many concessions had to be made by all parties. It was unhoped-for at the time.
Who can do more can do less, especially as the return of Kidal to the national fold is a new historic phase in the process of uniting Malians. You have to know how to read the signals and decipher the symbols. Mali's overriding interest is national unity, and everyone must work towards this. I am convinced that the authorities, in their quest for lasting peace, will appreciate any effort in this direction, and will be able to favour the spirit of dialogue when it comes to national harmony.
Mali Tribune: As Regional Director of the Timbuktu Institute, do you believe that this inter-Malian dialogue can foster peace between Malians?
Dr. B. S.: I have faith in the ability of Malians to surpass themselves and move forward together. The historic greatness of a country and a people is always a credit towards meeting any challenge. It is a driving force behind the great leaps forward. We need it today. Dialogue is a necessity, but it is also inscribed in the cultural practices of Malians. We, at the Timbuktu Institute, believe that this dialogue must be supported and encouraged because, above all and even beyond the imperative need to meet the pressing challenges in this country, Mali's survival is that of our region. Peace in this pivotal country is peace for everyone.
Mali Tribune: Is this inter-Malian dialogue a strategy to disengage Algerian mediation, as the CMA claims?
Dr. B. S. : Mali needs all its partners. But no one can impose solutions or know better than Malians what is best for their future together. In our study, "La parole aux Maliens", it emerged that Malians first and foremost always want to talk to each other, because their shared history and culture provide them with the endogenous resources to decipher and agree on what is in the national interest. Helping Mali towards reconciliation means first and foremost supporting inter-Malian dialogue. We need to support this dialogue and make it inclusive, a sine qua non for its success.
Mali Tribune: According to diplomatic sources, the President of the Transition is due to visit Algiers. In your opinion, would this visit be crucial for the inter-Malian dialogue, given that the CMA took refuge in Algiers after the recapture of Kidal?
Dr. B. S.: I don't know anything about it, but this visit would be a major step, especially as the President of the Transition has rarely visited the region. Just as he gave a strong signal in his New Year's speech by calling for dialogue, it is also necessary to safeguard ties with all Mali's neighbors. This is crucial to the stability of both Mali and the region as a whole. We've seen that even Morocco and other countries like Senegal are keen to maintain these good relations, with President Macky Sall's visit in particular being much appreciated at the time.
Plus...
When asked about the withdrawal of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS, Timbuktu Institute Regional Director Dr Bakary Sambe pointed out that the warning signs had been there since these countries created the Alliance of Sahel States (Sahel). In his view, if these states persevere in this dynamic, there is cause for concern, even if, with diplomacy, it is always possible to bring back its founding members.
Yesterday, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). "The warning signs were there, as we analyzed in a recent Timbuktu Institute Observatory Newsletter, as early as September 2023, seeing in the establishment of the Alliance of Sahel States a progressive threat to the regional collective security mechanism," responded Dr. Bakary Sambe, Director of the Timbuktu Institute. For him, the countries in question shared a concern not only to protect themselves against ECOWAS, but also to no longer be bound by the legal frameworks governing it.
"The strengthening of ties between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, while grafting other agreements onto security cooperation, was a clear sign that an exit was in the offing, despite all the efforts of the region's Heads of State to keep them in the Community fold", explains the specialist in regional and Sahel issues. Many links the exit of these countries to ECOWAS's management of coups d'etat. On this point, Bakary Sambe believes that it is true that ECOWAS tried to manage institutional crises as a matter of urgency, by activating the classic lever of sanctions, whereas the international geopolitical context offered the countries concerned not only loopholes, but also choices, notably with the Russian offer, which completely changed the deal.
ECOWAS, the putschists' repellent?
"Similarly, the sub-regional organization had long suffered from the disastrous management of security problems, from which it had been deprived in favor of the G5 Sahel, which was preferred by its partners. ECOWAS had become a repellent for regimes that had recently come to power, and that surfed on the populist fibre to maintain themselves there", recalls Dr. Sambe.
As for the outlook, the specialist believes that we're heading for an uncertain future. "If the states in question lock themselves into this alliance, we'll have to anticipate a number of situations, some as worrying as others", he maintains. He is thinking, among other things, of the fragmentation of regional efforts to combat terrorism. The decision could also have a negative impact on the efforts of the African Union, weakening the organization's role by complicating its attempts to coordinate security efforts on a continental scale. The three countries also accused ECOWAS of being instrumentalized by the great powers. Mr. Sambe disagrees. "If this were true, there would be no need for some to support other organizations to the detriment of ECOWAS, or to duplicate frameworks and mechanisms. ECOWAS certainly has its faults and shortcomings, but it is a framework for sometimes heated debate and a regulatory mechanism that should be consolidated and improved, not destroyed. This is not the concern of our international partners, who would not emerge unscathed from any chaos," says Bakary Sambe, who acknowledges that the sub-region is bearing the full brunt of the shocks of international geopolitics.
However, he is hopeful that these countries may come around, as there is a procedure for definitive withdrawal. "Withdrawal is only announced by a communiqué, which has no legal value. We need to take steps by state, and there's a whole process that will take time. A definitive withdrawal by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, founding and symbolic members of ECOWAS, will not be in anyone's interest," he says. He continues: "It's time to activate all the levers to avoid such a situation. The immediate effect is merely an announcement. Diplomacy must continue its work in the little space it has left", he hopes.
O.KANDE - Source : Le Soleil
Source : Météo Sahel
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The closure of the French embassy in Niger marked a turning point in relations between Paris and Niamey. This rare decision was taken at the same time as the withdrawal of French soldiers deployed in the fight against terrorism. Relations had deteriorated since last July's military coup and the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum. At the same time, the Nigerien authorities have stepped up their retaliatory measures, notably expelling European nationals, members of the EUCAP Sahel vision, a 120-strong European mission created in 2012 to reinforce internal security, and suspending the activities of the Maison de la presse, against a backdrop of growing tensions between the military government and civil society.
In addition, the Nigerien government has launched regional consultations with a view to an inclusive national dialogue to define the duration of the transition for the military in power since the coup d'état in July. These consultations have brought together a variety of players to discuss the main issues at stake in the transition: officers from the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland, members of the government, traditional and religious chiefs of former Tuareg rebel fighters, youth organizations, trade unions, NGOs, etc. However, the military regime continues to arrest government leaders Mohamed Bazoum, himself still sequestered in his presidential residence, while his son was granted provisional freedom on January 8. Ibrahim Yacoubou, the former Energy Minister in the President's government, was arrested on his return to Niger.
However, the security situation remains worrying, as evidenced by the drone strikes carried out by the Nigerien army in response to a jihadist attack in the southwest of the country, in the village of Tiawa, not far from the border with Burkina Faso. Unfortunately, these strikes resulted in civilian casualties, prompting criticism and calls for transparent investigations. Finally, Niger sought to diversify its international partnerships, announcing an intensification of its military cooperation with Russia, following Prime Minister Lamine Zeine's visit to Turkey, Serbia and then Iran. This initiative comes at a time when the country is seeking external support (equipment and expertise) in the face of the security and political challenges it faces.
Agenda