Source : Sahel weather July & august 2024 

Download the full Sahel weather report

 

Diplomatic relations between Benin and Niger are on the road to a clear thaw. First of all, the mediation of former Beninese presidents Nicéphore Soglo and Yayi Boni was a good omen. Back in Cotonou, they were also received by the Beninese Head of State, Patrice Talon. What emerged from this meeting was a willingness to "take the necessary steps to rapidly re-establish the dialogue desired by all parties". 

Subsequently, Niger's transition leader Abdourahamane Tiani sent a delegation to meet the Beninese president. The Niger authorities are proposing the creation of a tripartite commission to look into resolving the crisis. In another sign of détente, Benin's new ambassador to Niger, appointed in June 2023, was finally able to hand in his credentials. In addition, according to certain sources, the loading of Niger crude oil from the Sèmé Kpodji pipeline could well resume. However, the border between the two countries remains officially closed, although Benin and Nigeria have now opened a bypass to facilitate the flow of goods.

In the north of the country, the jihadist threat continues to loom ever larger. On the night of July 24-25, a terrorist attack in the W National Park killed at least five rangers and seven soldiers, according to the NGO African Parks. This South African organization, which specializes in park management in Africa, has been looking after Benin's parks since 2017. As a reminder, in January 2024, the Beninese government reported a toll of 43 civilians and 27 soldiers killed, in jihadist attacks.

The Beninese news was also punctuated by a bizarre affair: the "Frère Hounvi affair". Real name Steve Amoussou, "Frère Hounvi" - who has since been in exile in Togo - is particularly known for his biting criticism of President Talon's governance. In fact, on the evening of Monday August 12, the cyber-activist was "kidnapped" in Lomé by hooded individuals, taken away and then detained at Cotonou's economic and financial brigade. Alerted to national public opinion, the Beninese opposition immediately called for mobilization to secure the release of "Frère Hounvi". Togolese civil society also voiced its indignation at the arrest, judging it to be "a serious violation of the rules governing the conditions of arrest". Finally appearing on August 20 before the Criet (Court for the Repression of Economic Offences and Terrorism), "Frère Hounvi" is being prosecuted for "direct provocation to rebellion, initiation and publication of false news on social networks and harassment by electronic means." He will stand trial on October 7.

The day after Independence Day, the President pardoned 27 opposition activists arrested and put on trial following the electoral violence of 2019 and 2021. However, there is still no release in sight for the two leading opposition figures: Reckya Madougou and Joël Aïvo. Meanwhile, the publication of a report by Amnesty International has brought the country's appalling prison conditions back into the spotlight. According to the NGO's Executive Director: "Eleven prisons are three to six times overcrowded. There is a lack of water, and the right to health is not respected. Several people in detention have served between 5 and 20 years in prison without being tried."

Source : Météo Sahel Juillet & Août 2024

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La réélection du Président Ghazouani est passée sans surprise devant une opposition dispersée. Alors que les manifestations populaires de rejet des résultats des élections se poursuivaient, le communiqué de la Commission de l’Union africaine du 02 juillet, félicitant le président sortant Mohamed Cheikh El Ghazouani pour sa réélection, témoigne de la validation « internationale » des résultats de cette présidentielle par l’Union Africaine. Parmi les enjeux de cette élection, la présidence de l’Union Africaine était de taille. Le président mauritanien, candidat pour sa réélection dans son pays, qui occupe le poste de président de l’Union africaine aurait entraîné dans sa défaite, un chamboulement certain à la tête de cette organisation africaine.

Comme le redoutaient les observateurs, des violences politiques ont éclaté dans plusieurs villes dont Kaédi, Rosso Zoueirat et Boghé, des bastions de l’opposition.  C’est à la suite de l’appel à manifestations et rassemblements pacifiques du principal opposant, Biram Dah Abeid qui a rejeté les résultats de l’élection présidentielle en accusant de corruption les autorités et la Commission électorale, lors d’un  point de presse le 02 juillet. Ces violences post électorales ont causé la mort de trois individus, plusieurs blessés et de nombreuses arrestations. Néanmoins, dans son communiqué du 09 juillet, le ministère mauritanien de l’intérieur avait assuré que tous les manifestants nationaux ayant participé aux violences post électorales étaient libérés et que ceux étrangers ont été placés en détention « en attendant l’achèvement des procédures légales applicables ».

Après la ré-investiture du Président Ghazouani, la nomination de Mokhtar Ould Diay au poste de Premier Ministredu nouveau Gouvernement est acté le 2 août pour ce désormais ancien ministre chargé du Cabinet présidentiel et Coordinateur de campagne lors des élections législatives 2023. Cette nomination est également lue comme une « rupture avec l’administration précédente ». Expert en finances publiques, le nouveau premier ministre est surtout attendu sur les réformes économiques profondes à entreprendre. Pour y arriver et relever les nombreux défis, la formation du Gouvernement, le 06 août, serait fondée sur les compétences, l’expertise et l’expérience des vingt-neuf ministres nommés, non sans la promotion de jeunes.

Par ailleurs, l’état de santé de l’ancien Président, Mouhamed Ould Abdel Aziz, est jugé critique par ses avocats. Ces derniers dénoncent la situation « d’isolement complet » dont est victime leur client qui est détenu dans des conditions indignes. En outre, la demande de mise en liberté introduite par les avocats de l’ancien Président pour raisons sanitaires est rejetée. Lors de la conférence de presse qu’ils ont tenue le 17 août, Me Clédor Sène et ses collègues ont déploré le silence de la communauté internationale et des ONG de défense des droits de l’homme.

Le 16 août, Réuni lors d’une session extraordinaire, le parti au pouvoir, INSAF, a élu son nouveau Président. Ainsi, Sid Ahmed Ould Mohamed succède à Melaïnine Ould Eyih. Cet ancien ministre du logement estime que l’une des urgences est « la construction d’un Etat de droit et d’institutions efficaces ».

Par ailleurs, la migration continue de poser de véritables problèmes à la République Islamique. En effet, en mer, la lutte contre le phénomène migratoire clandestin demeure une préoccupation majeure pour les pays européens et une question centrale dans les relations internationales. C’est dans cette logique que s’inscrit la tournée africaine du Premier ministre espagnol dont les étapes furent la Mauritanie, la Gambie et le Sénégal. Pédro Sànchez et son Gouvernement invitent leurs partenaires à davantage s’investir pour limiter les départs. En effet,  La Mauritanie est devenue le principal point de transit des candidats à l’immigration vers l’Europe. Selon le ministère espagnol de l’Intérieur, le nombre des arrivants en Espagne, par les voies maritime et aérienne, est de 31155 migrants jusqu’à la mi-août 2024, soit une hausse de 66% par rapport à l’année dernière, à la même période. L’article de CRIDEM du 06 août nous apprend également que « cette année, 13000 migrants ont embarqué depuis les côtes mauritaniennes en direction des îles Canaries ». Dès lors, le mémorandum signé par les deux pays le 28 août dans le cadre de la visite du Premier ministre espagnol, vise à réguler le phénomène migratoire en offrant un cadre de coopération pour traiter les questions d’intérêt commun concernant la migration.

Source : Sahel weather July & august 2024 

Download the full Sahel weather report

 

President Ghazouani's re-election came as no surprise to a dispersed opposition. While popular protests to reject the election results continued, the African Union Commission's July 02 communiqué congratulating outgoing President Mohamed Cheikh El Ghazouani on his re-election, testified to the "international" validation of the presidential results by the African Union. Among the stakes of this election, the presidency of the African Union was a major one. The Mauritanian president, who is standing for re-election in his own country, and who holds the post of chairman of the African Union, would, if defeated, have led to an upheaval at the head of this African organization.

As observers feared, political violence broke out in several towns, including Kaédi, Rosso Zoueirat and Boghé, all opposition strongholds.  This followed a call for peaceful demonstrations and rallies by the main opposition figure, Biram Dah Abeid, who rejected the results of the presidential election, accusing the authorities and the Electoral Commission of corruption, at a press briefing on July 02. The post-election violence resulted in the death of three individuals, several injuries and numerous arrests. Nevertheless, in a press release dated July 09, the Mauritanian Ministry of the Interior assured that all national demonstrators involved in the post-election violence had been released, and that foreigners had been detained "pending completion of the applicable legal procedures".

Following the re-investiture of President Ghazouani, the appointment of Mokhtar Ould Diay as Prime Minister of the new government was announced on August 2, for this former minister in charge of the presidential cabinet and campaign coordinator for the 2023 legislative elections. This appointment is also seen as a "break with the previous administration". An expert in public finance, the new Prime Minister is expected to focus on the far-reaching economic reforms to be undertaken. To achieve this and meet the many challenges, the formation of the government on August 06will be based on the skills, expertise and experience of the twenty-nine ministers appointed, not without the promotion of young people.

The state of health of the former President, Mouhamed Ould Abdel Aziz, is considered critical by his lawyers. They denounce the "complete isolation" of their client, who is being held in undignified conditions. In addition, the request for release submitted by the former President's lawyers on health grounds was rejected. At a press conference held on August 17, Me Clédor Sène and his colleagues deplored the silence of the international community and human rights NGOs.

On August 16, the ruling INSAF party elected its new Chairman at an extraordinary session. Sid Ahmed Ould Mohamed succeeds Melaïnine Ould Eyih. A former housing minister, he believes that one of the most urgent priorities is "the construction of a state governed by the rule of law and effective institutions".

Migration continues to pose real problems for the Islamic Republic. Indeed, the fight against illegal migration at sea remains a major concern for European countries, and a central issue in international relations. This is the rationale behind the Spanish Prime Minister's African tour, which included stops in Mauritania, Gambia and Senegal. Pédro Sànchez and his government are calling on their partners to do more to limit the number of people leaving the country. Mauritania has become the main transit point for would-be immigrants to Europe. According to the Spanish Ministry of the Interior, the number of arrivals in Spain, by sea and air, is 31155 migrants up to mid-August 2024, an increase of 66% compared to the same period last year. The CRIDEM article of August 06 also tells us that "this year, 13,000 migrants embarked from the Mauritanian coast towards the Canary Islands". The memorandum signed by the two countries on August 28, as part of the visit by the Spanish Prime Minister, aims to regulate the migratory phenomenon by providing a framework for cooperation on migration issues of common interest.

Source : Sahel weather July & august 2024 

Download the full Sahel weather report

 

The news of July and August 2024 in Nigeria is marked by attacks and demonstrations linked to galloping inflation. The latest terrorist attacks suggest that the lull was short-lived after all. First there were attacks in three regions of Borno State, which local authorities attribute to Boko Haram, leaving at least eighteen people dead and dozens injured. Although the Nigerian state claims to have arrested extremists, the group continues to launch attacks from the border regions with Cameroon, using the same modus operandi.

These borders remain porous due to disputes between the two countries, which have pledged to finalize the delimitation of these land borders by 2025, in line with UN recommendations. Despite territorial disputes over a 36km segment, Cameroon and Nigeria have agreed to collaborate on hydrocarbon exploitation along their maritime border.

On the economic front, to alleviate social pressure, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu more than doubled the minimum wage for federal employees and civil servants in response to the soaring cost of living.

Despite these efforts, demonstrations broke out in several towns to protest against poor governance and the rising cost of living. Following these demonstrations in the north of the country, acts of vandalism were also reported. The police intervened to disperse the demonstrators, but they continue to demand the cancellation of certain reforms, such as the suspension of fuel subsidies. The purchase of a new presidential aircraft in the midst of an economic crisis is not helping the social situation.

According to Amnesty International, the protests left at least 21 people dead, while the Nigerian authorities reported 13 dead. During the protests, the defense and security forces were accused of violence against protesters. Although investigations are underway, the police and military authorities deny any responsibility. However, on Tuesday, the Nigerian police announced the arrest of over 90 demonstrators in the north of the country, some of whom were waving Russian flags. This move has been criticized by the Nigerian army as Russian interference, prompting the Nigerian domestic intelligence service (DSS) to open an investigation into the origin of the flags. However, the Russian Embassy in Nigeria has denied any involvement whatsoever in these demonstrations.

It was against this backdrop that Nigerian President Bola Tinubu on Sunday August 4, 2024 called for dialogue to put an end to the demonstrations, which he described as "political". However, the demonstrators, unhappy with the lack of response to their demands, rejected this call. As Nigerians continue to denounce bad governance and the high cost of living, the police have warned that they will crack down on any further demonstrations. Despite this, the growing "End Bad Governance" movement in Nigeria continues to hold demonstrations.

Source : Météo Sahel Juillet & Août 2024

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L’actualité de juillet et août 2024 au Nigeria est marquée par des attentats et des manifestations liées à une inflation galopante. Avec les nouvelles attaques terroristes, tout porte à croire que  l’accalmie n’était finalement que de courte durée. Il y a d’abord eu des attentats qui ont fait au moins dix-huit morts et des dizaines de blessées dans trois régions de l'État de Borno, que les autorités locales attribuent à Boko Haram. Bien que l’Etat du Nigeria affirme avoir arrêté desextrémistes, le groupe continue de lancer des attaques depuis les régions frontalières avec le Cameroun avec le même mode opératoire.

Ces frontières restent poreuses du fait des litiges entre les deux pays qui se sont engagés à finaliser la délimitation de cesfrontières terrestres d’ici 2025, en accord avec les recommandations de l’ONU. Malgré les conflits territoriaux sur un segment de 36km, le Cameroun et le Nigéria ont convenu de collaborer sur l’exploitation des hydrocarbures le long de leur frontière maritime.

Sur le plan économique, pour atténuer la pression sociale, le Président nigérian, Bola Tinubu a plus que doublé le salaire minimum pour les employés fédéraux et les fonctionnaires en réponse à la flambée du coût de la vie.

Malgré ces efforts, des manifestations ont éclaté dans plusieurs villes pour protester contre la mauvaise gouvernance et la hausse du coût de la vie. A la suite de ces manifestations survenues dans le Nord du pays, des actes de vandalisme ont également été signalés. La police est intervenue pour disperser les manifestants, mais ces derniers continuent d’exiger l'annulation de certaines réformes, comme la suspension des subventions aux carburants. L’achat d’un nouvel avion présidentiel en pleine crise économique n’arrange en rien la situation sociale.

Selon Amnesty International, les manifestations ont fait au moins 21 morts, au moment où les autorités Nigérianes décomptent 13 morts. Durant ces protestations, les forces de défense et de sécurité ont été accusées de violence envers les protestataires. Bien que des enquêtes soient en cours, les autorités policières et militaires nient toute responsabilité. Cependant, la police nigériane a annoncé mardi l’arrestation de plus de 90 manifestants dans le Nord du pays, dont certains brandissaient des drapeaux russes. Ce geste a été critiqué par l'armée nigériane qui y voit une ingérence Russe ; ce qui explique l’ouverture d’une enquête par les services de renseignement intérieur du Nigeria (DSS) sur l’origine de la fabrication de ces drapeaux. Toutefois, l’Ambassade de la Russie au Nigeria a nié toute implication de quelque manière que ce soit dans ces manifestations.

C’est dans ce contexte que le Président nigérian Bola Tinubu a appelé dimanche 4 août 2024 à un dialogue afin de mettre fin aux manifestations qu’il qualifie de "politiques’’. Cependant, les manifestants, mécontents de l'absence de réponses à leurs revendications, ont rejeté cet appel. Alors que les Nigérians continuent de dénoncer la mauvaise gouvernance et la vie chère, la police a averti qu'elle réprimera toute nouvelle manifestation. Malgré cela, le mouvement « End Bad Governance » prenant de l’ampleur au Nigeria, maintient ses manifestations.

Source : Sahel weather July & august 2024 

Download the full Sahel weather report

 

In Senegal, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye takes stock of his first 100 days in power. This is an opportunity for the leader of "Gem sa Bopp", Bougane Gueye, to look back at what he calls "the failures of the new regime", especially concerning the measures taken since his election. The leader of Gueum Sa Bopp speaks of an "illusory project" in the face of "increasing misery", describing the gloomy record of the new regime headed by Bassirou Diomaye Faye, with illegal immigration continuing to claim victims off the Senegalese coast, and winter flooding still awaiting solutions.

At a time of increasing criticism, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye announces "systemic" reforms at both national and regional level. In Senegal, the President did not fail to recall the place he and his government intend to give to justice at the closing ceremony of the Assises de la Justice, whose general report revealed consensus, but also disagreement on certain points. The event resulted in 30 recommendations, including the establishment of an autonomous Constitutional Court to replace the Constitutional Council, with members elected rather than appointed by the President of the Republic. President Diomaye Faye's first appearance at the ECOWAS summit was also an opportunity for Senegal's newly elected president to reiterate the importance of implementing reforms that will bring ECOWAS closer to the populations of its member countries. He also stressed the importance of reviewing the institution's sanctions against Niger and Mali, given the consequences this could have on the economies of these countries. The meeting between Gambian Vice-President Muhammad B.S Jallow and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko also provided an opportunity to discuss ECOWAS. The Senegalese head of government invited the three ECOWAS member states, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, to reconsider their decision to leave the organization, as West African countries would benefit more from remaining together in the same organization.

Following Ousmane Sonko's appointment as Prime Minister of Senegal, he was criticized for failing to make his general policy statement (DPG). For the new Prime Minister, the articles of the Rules of Procedure (RI) of the National Assembly setting out the modalities of the Prime Minister's DPG have been deleted since 2019 when the post was abolished. Hence the urgent need to update the RI and reinstate the articles in question in the internal regulations. With this in mind, an initiative by the Wallu parliamentary group, led by Nafissatou Diallo, was brought to the attention of the President of the National Assembly, with the aim of updating the Rules of Procedure following the restoration of the post of Prime Minister.

While he was waiting for the National Assembly's rules of procedure to be updated for his DPG, the Prime Minister launched a message to young people following the arrest of more than 57 irregular migrants from various West African countries on the Senegalese coast. These events followed a Senegalese navy patrol in Saint-Louis, northern Senegal, where fishermen are denouncing an ecological and economic disaster caused by the gas platform managed by the British oil group BP and Kosmos, due to the scarcity of fish in the area.

While some accuse the new regime of favoritism in certain appointments, others are raising their voices, even accusing President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and his Prime Minister of being "liars" and "manipulators". The appointment of Sophie Nzinga Sy, daughter of the current Minister of Foreign Affairs and African Integration, to head the Agence pour la Promotion et le Développement de l'Artisanat (APDA), is also described as favoritism; an accusation refuted by the spokesman for the Presidency of the Republic, who speaks of the meritocracy advocated by the State of Senegal instead of the nepotism of which the State is accused. 

In the interests of transparency, Senegal has set up a commission to review and renegotiate contracts signed with foreign companies operating in key sectors. The Commission was set up on August 19, 2024. A commission has been set up to review hydrocarbon contracts, especially since Senegal has been exploiting oil since June, with gas soon to follow. The aim of this Commission is to ensure that the exploitation of mining, gas and oil resources is of maximum benefit to the population. Hence the creation of a commission of experts appointed by the Prime Minister.

The press sector is also going through an unprecedented crisis. According to the owners of Stades and Sunu Lamb, two dailies are no longer on sale on Senegal's newsstands for economic reasons. Some are talking about bank accounts being frozen, while reporters believe they are more affected. This follows President Diomaye Faye's call on August 14 for "appropriate remedial measures" to help ensure the full application of the press code and to contribute to the smooth running of press enterprises. This is reflected in the media's restriction of press freedom, in addition to the freezing of the accounts of certain press organizations, which deplore the crisis they are going through, as well as their working conditions, which are deemed precarious.