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Chad has been confronted with a series of complex and interconnected events that have had a profound impact on the country's political, economic and security situation. The announcement of a state of food emergency highlighted the humanitarian crisis caused by the massive influx of refugees from neighboring Sudan. With over half a million refugees having fled the conflict in Darfur, Chad finds itself under pressure to meet the needs of these displaced populations, exacerbating internal social and economic tensions. Although the European Union has granted more than 29 billion CFA francs in humanitarian aid to Chad, the situation remains very complicated. This is particularly true since the UN announced that it was suspending food aid to Sudanese refugees for lack of funds. In the Adré camp, for example, 80% of the inhabitants "have seen people looting and burning their homes" during this war, which is rekindling inter-community tensions and conflicts in the country.
On the political front, Sahel Déby Itno's move to join opposition politician Yaya Dillo's Parti Socialiste sans Frontière (PSF) revealed fissures within the presidential clan and the Mouvement Patriotique du Salut (MPS) party, founded by his late brother, President Idriss Déby Itno. The move was seen as a challenge to the leadership of Mahamat Déby, the current head of the transition. Criticism also emerged over the adoption of a new electoral code, accused of favoring the presidential camp and restricting equitable political participation. These political tensions were exacerbated by the demonstrations and strikes that broke out in response to the significant rise in fuel prices. The population, already facing increasing economic difficulties, expressed its dissatisfaction with the government's decision.
Security events came to a head with what the government presented as a murderous attack on the premises of the intelligence services, by supporters of Yaya Dillo. In a turbulent situation, the security forces carried out a police operation at the headquarters of the opponent's party, resulting in his death. According to the government, the president of the PSF "refused to surrender and fired on the police". Party officials, however, denounced the incident as an "assassination". Dillo's family disputes the official version and is calling for a thorough investigation to establish the truth about his death. This raises the question of the country's stability and security as it prepares for a delicate and uncertain political transition.
Indeed, the approach of the May 6, 2024 presidential election where, for the first time in the country's history and even in Africa, the incumbent president, Mahamat Idriss Déby, and his prime minister, Succès Masra, are both standing as candidates, despite their cohabitation within the transitional power. The electoral process itself is controversial, with criticisms levelled at the new electoral code which restricts transparency, notably by abolishing the posting of results in front of polling stations and limiting political parties' access to the minutes. In addition, the Constitutional Council rejected the candidacies of ten presidential candidates, including those of two staunch opponents of the ruling junta. All of this in a climate where press freedom is relatively questioned following the suspension of several media outlets by the authorities and a crisis in the private media.
In the east of the country, clashes between different communities led to the death of at least 42 people, underlining the persistent challenges to security and social cohesion in Chad.
Source : Météo Sahel
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Au Burkina Faso, la situation sécuritaire demeure extrêmement préoccupante, avec une recrudescence des violences jihadistes qui ont engendré une effusion de sang sans précédent dans plusieurs régions du pays. Des attaques meurtrières contre des fidèles dans une mosquée et une église sont la parfaite illustration de la persistance de ces violences interconfessionnelles et jihadistes. De plus, une série d'attaques d'une violence inouïe a frappé trois villages du nord du pays, a entraîné la mort d'au moins 170 personnes dont de nombreuses femmes et des enfants. Ces attaques sont survenues dans un contexte déjà tendu, marqué par des violences similaires dans d'autres régions du pays, notamment dans la province de la Komondjari à l'est, où les villages de Bibgou et Soualimou ont été le théâtre d'atrocités similaires et dans le centre-est. Des vidéos poignantes montrent des dizaines de cadavres gisant au sol dans ces régions déchirées par les conflits.
C’est dans ce climat que des recrutements forcés de civils, y compris des militants, des médecins, des journalistes et des opposants, pour renforcer les Volontaires pour la défense de la patrie (VDP) dans la lutte contre les djihadistes continuent de susciter des inquiétudes. A ce propos, des organisations de la société civile et de défense de droits humains ne manquent pas de dénoncer les violations des droits de l'homme et l'utilisation de méthodes coercitives par le gouvernement.
Dans ce sillage, l'arrestation considérée comme arbitraire de l'avocat Guy-Hervé Kam a provoqué une vive réaction de la part de la communauté juridique, entraînant une grève des avocats pour fustiger ce qu’elle dénonce comme une répression croissante des voix discordantes. De même, les accusations de Human Rights Watch concernant la répression d’activistes de la société civile et d’opposants politiques pacifiques par la junte ont, une fois de plus, mis la lumière sur la détérioration continue de la situation des droits de l'homme dans le pays. Les enlèvements des membres actifs du mouvement Balai citoyen, à l’instar de Bassirou Badjo ou Rasmane Zinaba, illustrent cette inquiétante atmosphère de répression généralisée.
De plus, la situation humanitaire s'aggrave, avec près de 500 000 personnes vivant dans des zones sous blocus privées d'accès à l'aide humanitaire en raison de l'insécurité croissante et du manque de financement pour les opérations humanitaires. Malgré les appels à l'action internationale et les tentatives de médiation pour résoudre la crise, le Burkina Faso demeure confronté à des défis majeurs en matière de sécurité, de droits de l'homme et de réponse humanitaire, nécessitant une mobilisation urgente et coordonnée de la communauté internationale pour atténuer les souffrances des civils et restaurer la stabilité dans le pays.
Par ailleurs, le Burkina Faso quatrième producteur d’or sur le continent a annoncé la suspension de ses exportations d'or et de substances précieuses de production artisanale et semi-mécanisée. Ceci en raison du “besoin d'assainissement du secteur minier et la volonté du gouvernement de mieux organiser la commercialisation de l'or et des autres substances précieuses”, a justifié le ministre de l'Energie et des Mines.
Dans ce contexte régional tendu et fragile marqué par le retrait annoncé du Burkina Faso, du Mali et du Niger de la CEDEAO ainsi que des critiques sur l'influence française, des ministres de ces pays se sont réunis pour discuter de la possibilité de former une confédération. “Ce mécanisme permettra à notre alliance [l’AES] et à la confédération de fonctionner efficacement et au grand bonheur de nos populations”, a estimé le ministre nigérien de la Défense, Salifou Modi.
Source : Sahel Weather
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The security situation in Burkina Faso remains extremely worrying, with an upsurge in jihadist violence that has resulted in unprecedented bloodshed in several regions of the country. Murderous attacks on worshippers in a mosque and a church are the perfect illustration of the persistence of interfaith and jihadist violence. In addition, a series of unprecedentedly violent attacks hit three villages in the north of the country, resulting in the deaths of at least 170 people, many of them women and children. These attacks came against an already tense backdrop, marked by similar violence in other parts of the country, notably in the Komondjari province in the east, where the villages of Bibgou and Soualimou were the scene of similar atrocities, and in the center-east. Harrowing videos show dozens of corpses lying on the ground in these conflict-torn regions.
It is in this climate that the forced recruitment of civilians, including activists, doctors, journalists and opponents, to reinforce the Volunteers for Homeland Defense (VDP) in the fight against jihadists continues to raise concerns. In this respect, civil society and human rights organizations have been denouncing human rights violations and the use of coercive methods by the government.
In the same vein, the arrest of lawyer Guy-Hervé Kam, considered arbitrary, provoked a strong reaction from the legal community, leading to a lawyers' strike in protest at what they denounced as the increasing repression of dissenting voices. Similarly, Human Rights Watch's accusations of the junta's repression of civil society activists and peaceful political opponents once again shed light on the continuing deterioration of the human rights situation in the country. The kidnappings of active members of the Balai citoyen movement, such as Bassirou Badjo and Rasmane Zinaba, illustrate this worrying atmosphere of widespread repression.
In addition, the humanitarian situation is worsening, with almost 500,000 people living in blockaded areas denied access to humanitarian aid due to growing insecurity and lack of funding for humanitarian operations. Despite calls for international action and mediation attempts to resolve the crisis, Burkina Faso continues to face major challenges in terms of security, human rights and humanitarian response, requiring an urgent and coordinated mobilization of the international community to alleviate the suffering of civilians and restore stability to the country.
Burkina Faso, the continent's fourth-largest gold producer, has announced the suspension of its exports of gold and precious substances from artisanal and semi-mechanized production. This is due to "the need to clean up the mining sector and the government's desire to better organize the marketing of gold and other precious substances", explained the Minister of Energy and Mines.
In this tense and fragile regional context, marked by the announced withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger from ECOWAS and criticism of French influence, ministers from these countries met to discuss the possibility of forming a confederation. "This mechanism will enable our alliance [the ESA] and the confederation to function effectively and to the great benefit of our populations", said Niger's Minister of Defense, Salifou Modi.
Source : Sahel Weather
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In Togo, the death of exiled opposition figure Gabriel Messan Agbéyomé Kodjo, former Prime Minister and President of the National Assembly, has sent shockwaves through the country. Kodjo, who had challenged President Faure Gnassingbé in the 2020 presidential election which he believed he had won, died without being able to return to his country, two months after his mentor Monseigneur Phillipe Fanoko Kpodzro. His meandering political career reflects the tumultuous nature of Togolese political life, from his first steps as a minister in the 1980s to his challenge to the 2020 election results, which forced him into exile.
At the same time, the security situation in the country remains worrying, with the extension of the state of emergency in the Savanes region, plagued by incursions by jihadist groups since November 2021. This measure, adopted for the third time, comes against a tense electoral backdrop, with legislative and regional elections scheduled for April 20.
A proposal for a revised constitution, aimed at changing the country's presidential system to a parliamentary one, was also under consideration by the National Assembly. Togolese deputies adopted the new Constitution on the evening of Monday March 25, giving Parliament the power to elect the President of the Republic "without debate" for a single six-year term. Previously, the Togolese president was elected by direct universal suffrage for a five-year term, renewable once. The constitutional reform was proposed by a group of deputies, mainly from the ruling Union pour la République (UNIR) party. It was adopted with a large majority, since the opposition, which is poorly represented in the National Assembly due to its boycott of the 2018 legislative elections, has little influence on the legislative process. As well as changing the way the president is appointed, this new constitution also introduces the position of "President of the Council of Ministers", who will have the "full authority and power to manage the affairs of the government and be held accountable accordingly". The President of the Council of Ministers will be the leader of the party or the leader of the coalition of parties that won the majority in the legislative elections, and will be appointed for a six-year term. The date of entry into force of the new Constitution has not yet been specified.
Finally, the Constitutional Court has validated the participation of 2,350 candidates for 113 seats in the forthcoming legislative elections, despite criticism of the process and errors in the candidate lists.
Source : Météo Sahel
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Au Togo, le décès de l'opposant Gabriel Messan Agbéyomé Kodjo en exil, ancien Premier ministre et président de l'Assemblée nationale, suscite une onde de choc dans le pays. Kodjo, qui avait affronté le président Faure Gnassingbé lors de la présidentielle de 2020 qu'il estimait avoir remportée, est décédé sans avoir pu retourner dans son pays, deux mois après son mentor Monseigneur Phillipe Fanoko Kpodzro. Son parcours politique sinueux reflète les tumultes de la vie politique togolaise, depuis ses premiers pas comme ministre dans les années 80 jusqu'à sa contestation des résultats électoraux en 2020 qui l'a contraint à l'exil.
Parallèlement, la situation sécuritaire dans le pays demeure préoccupante, avec la prolongation de l'état d'urgence dans la région des Savanes, en proie à des incursions de groupes jihadistes depuis novembre 2021. Cette mesure, adoptée pour la troisième fois, intervient dans un contexte électoral tendu, avec des élections législatives et régionales prévues pour le 20 avril.
Une proposition de révision constitutionnelle, visant à changer le régime présidentiel en un régime parlementaire, a également été à l'étude à l'Assemblée nationale. Les députés togolais ont adopté dans la soirée du lundi 25 mars cette nouvelle Constitution qui accorde désormais au Parlement le pouvoir d'élire le président de la République "sans débat" pour un mandat unique de six ans. Auparavant, le président togolais était élu au suffrage universel direct pour un mandat de cinq ans, renouvelable une fois. Cette réforme constitutionnelle a été proposée par un groupe de députés, principalement issus de l'Union pour la République (UNIR), le parti au pouvoir. Elle a été adoptée avec une large majorité, puisque l'opposition, faiblement représentée à l'Assemblée nationale en raison de son boycott des élections législatives de 2018, a peu d'influence sur le processus législatif. En plus de changer le mode de désignation du président, cette nouvelle Constitution instaure également un poste de « président du Conseil des ministres », qui aura la « pleine autorité et le pouvoir de gérer les affaires du gouvernement et d'être tenu responsable en conséquence ». Le président du Conseil des ministres sera le chef du parti ou le chef de file de la coalition de partis majoritaire à l'issue des élections législatives, et sera désigné pour un mandat de six ans. La date d'entrée en vigueur de cette nouvelle Constitution n'a pas été précisée dans l'immédiat.
Enfin, la Cour constitutionnelle a validé la participation de 2 350 candidats pour 113 sièges aux prochaines élections législatives, malgré les critiques concernant le processus et les erreurs relevées dans les listes des candidats.
Source : Sahel Weather
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Women in Conakry initiated a protest movement, blocking access to the city center to express their dissatisfaction with unfulfilled promises of aid following the explosion of the hydrocarbon depot in December. These protests quickly spread to include demands against rising prices for basic necessities and internet restrictions.
The situation became more tense when the Conakry airport website was hacked by the Anonymous 224 collective, denouncing Internet and media restrictions in Guinea. Faced with this growing atmosphere of protest, the Guinean authorities finally lifted the Internet access restrictions after three months, thanks to internal pressure and the unions' call for a general strike.
In addition, the Guinean authorities froze the accounts of members of the dissolved government without providing any public explanation, fuelling tensions in the country. Faced with pressure from the street, the head of the junta appointed a new Prime Minister in the hope of resolving the crisis, but demonstrations and union demands persisted.
The sentencing of Sékou Jamal Pendessa to six months' imprisonment, three of which were suspended, for having called for a demonstration against Internet restrictions, triggered a new wave of protests and strengthened the unions' determination to keep up the pressure on the government. The general strike called by the unions paralyzed the capital Conakry, with strong mobilization in all sectors of the economy, both private and public. Eventually, his release led to the suspension of the general strike by the unions, marking a pause in social tensions, even if the political situation remains tense.
At the same time, the political situation is marked by the fact that the military will remain in power until 2025. The new Prime Minister, Amadou Oury Bah, has justified this decision by citing the economic crisis, political and social tensions, and the need to hold a constitutional referendum by the end of the year. Despite some delays in implementing the electoral calendar, the Prime Minister asserts that the constitutional referendum should be held by the end of the year, paving the way for other electoral processes. Denying that the junta led by General Mamadi Doumbouya is seeking to cling to power, he asserts that the "leadership at the head of Guinea" aims to restore normalcy to the country.
Meanwhile, the trial of the September 28 massacre, in which security forces opened fire on peaceful demonstrators, resumes. The public prosecutor has asked for the facts to be reclassified as crimes against humanity, following the examination of audio and video evidence. As a reminder, this massacre resulted in the deaths of at least 150 people and numerous injuries, with reports of over 100 women raped by the security forces. The reopening of the trial is therefore a crucial moment for justice in Guinea, with expectations regarding the legal qualification of the tragic events of 2009.
Plus...
Source : Météo Sahel
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Des femmes de Conakry ont initié un mouvement de protestation, bloquant les accès au centre-ville pour exprimer leur mécontentement face aux promesses non tenues d'aide après l'explosion du dépôt d'hydrocarbures en décembre. Ces manifestations se sont rapidement étendues pour inclure des revendications contre l'augmentation des prix des produits de première nécessité et les restrictions d’internet.
La situation est devenue plus tendue lorsque le site internet de l'aéroport de Conakry a été piraté par le collectif Anonymous 224, dénonçant les restrictions sur Internet et dans les médias en Guinée. Face à cette atmosphère de contestation croissante, les autorités guinéennes ont finalement levé les restrictions d'accès à internet après trois mois, grâce à la pression interne et à l'appel des syndicats à une grève générale.
De plus, les autorités guinéennes ont gelé les comptes des membres du gouvernement dissous sans fournir d'explications publiques, alimentant les tensions dans le pays. Face à la pression de la rue, le chef de la junte a nommé un nouveau Premier ministre dans l'espoir de résoudre la crise, mais les manifestations et les revendications des syndicats ont persisté.
La condamnation de Sékou Jamal Pendessa à six mois de prison dont trois avec sursis pour avoir demandé à manifester contre les restrictions d’Internet, a déclenché une nouvelle vague de manifestations et a renforcé la détermination des syndicats à maintenir la pression sur le gouvernement. La grève générale déclenchée par les syndicats a paralysé la capitale Conakry, avec une forte mobilisation dans tous les secteurs de l'économie, privé comme public. Finalement, sa libération a conduit à la suspension de la grève générale par les syndicats, marquant une pause dans les tensions sociales, même si la situation politique reste tendue.
Par ailleurs, la situation politique est marquée par le maintien des militaires au pouvoir jusqu'en 2025. Le nouveau Premier ministre Amadou Oury Bah a justifié cette décision par la crise économique, les tensions politiques et sociales, et évoque la nécessité de mener un référendum constitutionnel d'ici la fin de l'année. Malgré quelques retards dans la mise en œuvre du calendrier électoral, le Premier ministre affirme que le référendum constitutionnel devrait être organisé d'ici la fin de l'année, ouvrant la voie à d'autres processus électoraux. Niant que la junte dirigée par le général Mamadi Doumbouya cherche à s'accrocher au pouvoir, il affirme que le “leadership à la tête de la Guinée” vise à restaurer la normalité dans le pays.
Pendant ce temps, le procès du massacre du 28 septembre, où les forces de sécurité ont ouvert le feu sur des manifestants pacifiques, reprend. Le parquet a demandé la requalification des faits en crimes contre l'humanité, suite à des preuves audio et vidéo examinées. Pour rappel, ce massacre a causé la mort d'au moins 150 personnes et de nombreux blessés, avec des rapports de plus de 100 femmes violées par les forces de sécurité. La réouverture du procès est donc un moment crucial pour la justice en Guinée, avec des attentes concernant la qualification juridique des événements tragiques de 2009.
Source : Sahel Weather
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On the political front, the slow progress of the transitional government towards a democratic civilian regime continues, with the indefinite postponement of scheduled elections. This situation is fuelling concern among some observers as to the intentions of the military authorities in office since 2020 to remain in power. Just as March 26 marked the fall of the dictatorship in 1991, this date also marks the end of the transition opened by the coup d'état of 2020. The transitional authorities remain in power despite promises of a rapid transition and a presidential election postponed without a new date set. Opponents denounce the "hostage-taking of the country by the military", which has been in power for almost four years.
The removal of Choguel Maïga from the presidency of the Mouvement du 5 juin - Rassemblement des Forces Patriotiques (M5-RFP) reveals the political divisions within the opposition, which could further weaken the movement. Similarly, the dissolution of the Coordination des Mouvements, Associations et Sympathisants de l'Imam Mahmoud Dicko (CMAS) by the authorities demonstrates the tensions between the country's various political and religious players, with potential implications for social stability. This comes against a backdrop of "repression of the opposition", as a dozen students from AEEM, the dissolved Association of Pupils and Students of Mali, were arrested by State Security, Mali's intelligence services, and by the banning of the opposition coalition "Synergie d'action pour le Mali".
The setting up of a steering committee for the future inter-Malian dialogue has been criticized for the lack of representativeness of the armed groups who signed the previous peace agreement, especially as none of these armed groups were invited.
At the same time, tensions between Mali and France were exacerbated by a decision by the Malian authorities to order the withdrawal of the French television channel France 2 from the television bouquets, in response to a report on the security situation in Mali that was far from unanimously approved in Mali.
With the blockade imposed by several armed jihadist groups, the town of Ménaka is still finding it difficult to obtain supplies of food, petrol and medicines, making daily life difficult for the population, with the immediate consequence of rising prices. This blockade comes on top of the many difficulties experienced by the local population, particularly with regard to hosting displaced persons, who number 40,000 in the region, according to the UN humanitarian coordinator Ocha. The massive influx of refugees from Burkina Faso fleeing the violence in their country and the energy crisis in Gao, where the population is deprived of electricity due to a major breakdown in the main generator, illustrate the humanitarian and infrastructural challenges facing the country.
On the security front, a large-scale "tactical exercise" personally supervised by General Saïd Chanegriha, Chief of Staff of the Algerian Army, took place on February 27 at the border with Mali. The exercise took place against a backdrop of high tension between Algeria and the transitional Malian authorities, with growing concerns over cross-border security. Indeed, the catalyst for this situation is none other than the Malian army and Wagner drone strikes on the border with Algeria, which left 7 people dead and many more lost in the rubble. At the end of March, and following this clear deterioration in relations between Algeria and Mali, the government of Choguel Kokalla Maïga decided to abolish the Algiers agreement.
The arrest of Colonel Alpha Yaya Sangaré, at his home in Bamako without a warrant, following the publication of his book criticizing the army, demonstrates the growing tensions between the military authorities and critical voices within the army. The circumstances surrounding this arrest raise concerns about respect for freedom of expression and due process in Mali.
In addition, the release of three Italian nationals from the same family, captured in Mali since 2022, underlines the persistent risk of kidnapping in the region. According to data provided by the Italian Presidency of the Council of Ministers, the Italian nationals were held for almost two years before being released. In March, the release by the JNIM of a video showing Malian soldiers captured near Kwala, along with demands for their release in exchange for prisoners held by the JNIM, the deadly attack near Sikasso and the army's blunder in Amasrakad, proved the persistence of the terrorist threat in the country and the vulnerability of the national security forces. At the same time, the rallying of a rebel military leader to the JNIM highlights the complex issues of alliances and power rivalries in a context where armed groups often operate in a fluid fashion.