The spectrum of the recent violence in Senegal continues to loom large. And given that election periods in Africa - with Senegal moving towards a presidential election - are infamous for being times of unrest, caution must be must be the order of the day. With this in mind, Meta in partnership with the Timbuktu Institute organized a workshop on content moderation and the fight against and the fight against misinformation. An opportunity for various members of civil society to exchange views on the main risks and trends in harmful content during the election period.

Provide the resources needed to make optimal use of the platforms, especially during election period. This is the main objective of Meta, for whom it is "important to exchange with civil society players on the use of social networks and, above all, on the moderation of content moderation in a period prone to hate speech and disinformation", explains Olivia Tchamba, public policy manager at Meta. It is in this context that these exchanges respond to a need in terms of tools and, above all, awareness of the need to combat against disinformation. And all this with Meta, which "does not set itself up as a judge of truth, but, after sometimes heated exchanges with its experts, to regulate and prevent hate speech Haja Bally, Content Policy at Meta. "In today's context of risk and uncertainty, misinformation continues to be a real threat to stability and threat to stability and social cohesion, especially in the current regional environment”, reminds Adji Awa S., representative of the Timbuktu Institute. 

Election period, a time of heightened risk

If certain types of content are harmful in times of relative calm, their pernicious potential is in times of relative calm, their pernicious potential is heightened during election periods. With these threats in mind that it is important to shed some light on the issues in question. These were the subject of a round-table discussion. According to one of the panelists, Ousseynou Mbaye, founding member of the Association d'Aide aux Enfants Démunis (AAED), a moderation of the content. "The recent violence in Senegal can be explained by, among other things that we haven't been able to use the right words with young people," he laments. Advocating efforts in the direction of better general digital literacy, he continues: "I have a formula from a marabout who said the word in four beats. This means that that the person speaking must be authorized to speak, that the person must be competent to to speak about the subject, that the time chosen to speak is appropriate, and that the person speaks to the right people. the right audience".

President of the Réseau Paix et Sécurité pour les Femmes de l'Espace Cedeao (REPSFECO), Diago Ndiaye, compares Senegal to an incense burner. "The country is sitting on embers. Indeed, incense gives off a pleasant smell in the room, but down below there's fire ready to burn. The events of 2021 are a warning that we must take the full measure of," she warns. For her, "it's young people and women, who are generally the most susceptible, on whom we must insist on raising awareness, in addition to citizenship education." A position shared by Ousseynou Mbaye, who suggests "revisiting our concept of patriotism, promoting the culture of peace, while organizing training on education and digital security." And it's election time, says Ms. Ndiaye, "where candidates sometimes engage in verbal jousting verbal where violence is quite present". 

The electoral process underway in Senegal has given rise to the "SaytuSen2024" campaign, inspired by the Wolof word "saytu", meaning "to watch over, scrutinize, verify". Indeed, to combat misinformation, "journalists, Africa Check and civil society players have formed this alliance, with the aim of evaluating and verifying the veracity of the claims made by Abdoulaye Seck, head of Amnesty International. This type of initiatives, he points out, is proof that disinformation is not just the concern of a certain but can also involve the contribution of citizens. Indeed, the practice of fact-checking could soon come up against new challenges, "with the irruption of AI, which will make the task ever more complicated", notes a participant in the audience.

For better digital literacy

"Establish policy community standards that define what is and isn't allowed on Meta platforms, define tools and guidelines for users to empower them, collaboration and programs with experts as well as partners to continue improving policies". According to Eva Sow Ebion, head of Meta's Sub-Saharan Africa programs, this is roughly the company's approach to integrity and digital literacy. 

On the awareness-raising front, there's the "NoFalseNewsZone" campaign, part of a comic strip created to combat misinformation. Dedicated to French-speaking Africa, this fact-checking incubation and mentoring program aims to support the growth of local media, which fight misinformation. The program took place in five countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Meta also launched a campaign on social networks and radio, an awareness campaign on misinformation and the fight against online hate speech, in the run-up to the presidential election. One of the objectives of this campaign, among others, is to demonstrate the merits and benefits of participation of young people in the electoral process.

Timbuktu Institute

Le spectre des récentes violences observées au Sénégal continue de planer au-dessus des esprits. Et dans la mesure où les périodes électorales en Afrique – le Sénégal avançant vers une présidentielle -, sont tristement connues pour être des moments d’agitation, prudence doit être de mise. C’est dans cette optique, que Meta en partenariat avec le Timbuktu Institute, a organisé le jeudi 1 er février à l’hôtel Terrou-Bi, un atelier sur la modération de contenus et la lutte contre la désinformation. Une opportunité pour différents membres de la société civile d’échanger sur les principaux risques et tendances des contenus préjudiciables, en période électorale.

Apporter les ressources nécessaires pour une utilisation optimale des plateformes, qui puis est, en période électorale. Tel est le principal objectif de Meta, pour laquelle, il « importe d’échanger avec les acteurs de la société civile sur l’utilisation des réseaux sociaux et surtout sur la modération des contenus dans une période sujette aux discours de haine et à la désinformation », explique Olivia Tchamba, public Policy manager chez Meta. C’est dans ce sillage que ces échanges viennent répondre à un besoin en termes d’outils et surtout de prise de conscience de la nécessité de lutter efficacement contre la désinformation. Et ceci, avec Meta qui « ne se pose pas en juge de vérité, mais au bout d’échanges parfois vifs avec ses experts avertis, réguler et prévenir les discours haineux ou pouvant mener à la violence », précise Haja Bally, content Policy chez Meta. « Avec le contexte actuel, lourd de risques et d’incertitudes, la désinformation continue d’être une réelle menace pour la stabilité et la cohésion sociale surtout avec l’environnement régional que nous connaissons », rappelle pour sa part Adji Awa S., représentante du Timbuktu Institute.

Période électorale, période de risques décuplés

 Si certains types de contenus présentent des caractéristiques préjudiciables en temps de relative accalmie, en période électorale, leur risque pernicieux se trouve accru. C’est donc fort de ces menaces qu’il importe d’apporter des éclairages sur les problématiques en question. Ces dernières ont tenu lieu d’échange autour d’une table ronde. Selon un des panélistes, Ousseynou Mbaye, membre fondateur de l’Association d’Aide aux Enfants Démunis (AAED), une modération des contenus s’impose. « Les récentes violences au Sénégal peuvent s’expliquer entre autres par le fait que nous n’avons pas su et pu utiliser les mots adéquats à l’endroit de la jeunesse. », regrette-t-il. Préconisant des efforts dans le sens d’une meilleure alphabétisation numérique générale, il poursuit : « Je tiens une formule d’un marabout qui a dit que la parole à quatre temps. C’est-à-dire qu’il faut que la personne qui parle soit autorisée à parler, que la personne soit compétente pour parler du sujet, que le moment choisi pour parler soit adéquat et que la personne s’adresse aux bons destinataires ». 

Présidente de la Présidente chez Réseau Paix et Sécurité pour les Femmes de l’Espace CEDEAO (REPSFECO), Diago Ndiaye, compare le Sénégal à un encensoir. « Le pays est assis sur de la braise. En effet, l’encens émet une odeur agréable dans la chambre mais en bas il y a du feu prêt à brûler. Les événements de 2021 sont un avertissement dont il faut prendre la pleine mesure », avertit-elle. Pour elle, « ce sont les jeunes et femmes, généralement les plus sujets sur lesquels il faut insister sur la sensibilisation, en plus d’une éducation à la citoyenneté. » Position que partage Ousseynou Mbaye, en proposant de « revoir notre conception du patriotisme, promouvoir la culture de la paix, tout en organisant des formations sur l’éducation et la sécurité numériques. » Qui puis est en période électorale, affirme Mme Ndiaye « où les candidats se livrent parfois à des joutes verbales où la violence est assez présente ».

Le processus électoral enclenché au Sénégal a donné le jour à la campagne « SaytuSen2024 » inspirée du mot wolof « saytu », qui signifie « veiller sur, scruter, vérifier ». En effet, pour lutter contre la désinformation, « journalistes, Africa Check et des acteurs de la société civile ont formé cette alliance, dans le but d’évaluer et vérifier la véracité des affirmations des candidats à la présidentielle », apprend Abdoulaye Seck, responsable d’Amnesty International. Ce type d’initiatives, pointe-t-il, est une preuve que la désinformation n’est pas seulement l’affaire d’un certain type d’acteurs, mais peut également engager la contribution des citoyens. » En effet, la pratique du fact-checking pourrait prochainement se heurter à de nouveaux défis, « avec l’irruption de l’intelligence artificielle (IA) qui va de plus en plus compliquer la tâche », note une participante dans l’assistance.

Pour une meilleure alphabétisation numérique

« Établir des normes communautaires politiques qui définissent ce qui est autorisé ou non sur les plateformes Meta, définir des outils et directives pour les utilisateurs pour les responsabiliser, les collaboration et programmes avec les experts ainsi que partenaires pour continuer à améliorer les politiques ». Telle est grosso modo, selon Eva Sow Ebion, responsable des programmes Afrique subsaharienne de Meta, l’approche de l’entreprise en matière d’intégrité et d’alphabétisation numérique.

Concernant la sensibilisation, il y a la campagne « NoFalseNewsZone », partie d’une bande dessinée créée pour lutter contre la désinformation. Dédiée à l’Afrique francophone, ce programme d’incubation et de mentorat de vérification des faits, vise à soutenir la croissance des médias locaux, qui luttent contre la désinformation. Ce programme s’est déroulé dans cinq pays : Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroun, Mali, Burkina Faso et Niger. Par ailleurs, Meta a lancé une campagne sur les réseaux sociaux et à la radio, une campagne de sensibilisation sur la mésinformation et la lutte contre les discours haineux en ligne, dans le cadre de l’élection présidentielle. Un des objectifs affichés de cette campagne, est entre autres, de montrer le bien-fondé et l’intérêt de la participation des jeunes au processus électoral.

When asked about the withdrawal of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS, Timbuktu Institute Regional Director Dr Bakary Sambe pointed out that the warning signs had been there since these countries created the Alliance of Sahel States (Sahel). In his view, if these states persevere in this dynamic, there is cause for concern, even if, with diplomacy, it is always possible to bring back its founding members.

Yesterday, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). "The warning signs were there, as we analyzed in a recent Timbuktu Institute Observatory Newsletter, as early as September 2023, seeing in the establishment of the Alliance of Sahel States a progressive threat to the regional collective security mechanism," responded Dr. Bakary Sambe, Director of the Timbuktu Institute. For him, the countries in question shared a concern not only to protect themselves against ECOWAS, but also to no longer be bound by the legal frameworks governing it.

"The strengthening of ties between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, while grafting other agreements onto security cooperation, was a clear sign that an exit was in the offing, despite all the efforts of the region's Heads of State to keep them in the Community fold", explains the specialist in regional and Sahel issues. Many link the exit of these countries to ECOWAS's management of coups d'état. On this point, Bakary Sambe believes that it is true that ECOWAS tried to manage institutional crises as a matter of urgency, by activating the classic lever of sanctions, whereas the international geopolitical context offered the countries concerned not only loopholes, but also choices, notably with the Russian offer, which completely changed the deal.

As for the outlook, the specialist believes that we're heading for an uncertain future. "If the states in question lock themselves into this alliance, we'll have to anticipate a number of situations, some as worrying as others", he maintains. He is thinking, among other things, of the fragmentation of regional efforts to combat terrorism. The decision could also have a negative impact on the efforts of the African Union, weakening the organization's role by complicating its attempts to coordinate security efforts on a continental scale. The three countries also accused ECOWAS of being instrumentalized by the great powers. Mr. Sambe disagrees. "If this were true, there would be no need for some to support other organizations to the detriment of ECOWAS, or to duplicate frameworks and mechanisms. ECOWAS certainly has its faults and shortcomings, but it is a framework for sometimes heated debate and a regulatory mechanism that should be consolidated and improved, not destroyed. This is not the concern of our international partners, who would not emerge unscathed from any chaos," says Bakary Sambe, who acknowledges that the sub-region is bearing the full brunt of the shocks of international geopolitics.

However, he is hopeful that these countries may come around, as there is a procedure for definitive withdrawal. "Withdrawal is only announced by a communiqué, which has no legal value. We need to take steps by state, and there's a whole process that will take time. A definitive withdrawal by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, founding and symbolic members of ECOWAS, will not be in anyone's interest," he says. He continues: "It's time to activate all the levers to avoid such a situation. The immediate effect is merely a publicity stunt. Diplomacy must continue its work in the little space it has left", he hopes.

Source : Le Soleil

In this exclusive interview, Dr. Bakary Sambe, Regional Director of the Timbuktu Institute African Center for Peace Studies (Bamako, Dakar, Niamey), highlights the need for dialogue with all Malians as part of the inter-Malian dialogue initiated by the President of the Transition for national reconciliation between all Malians. From Dakar, Dr. Bakary Sambe answers our questions.

Interview.

Mali Tribune: What do you think of the inter-malian dialogue launched by the President of the Transition during his New Year's address to Malians ?

Dr. Bakary Sambe: First of all, we must welcome the Transition President's call for dialogue. It's an opportunity for Mali to emerge from the crisis that all stakeholders must seize. Mali needs sincere and inclusive reconciliation to face up to its countless challenges in harmony and national unity.

This appeal reflects the good will of the transitional authorities to forge ahead with the national reconciliation process. But it will be vital to ensure that this dialogue includes all stakeholders, including the different components of the armed groups in all their diversity.

Mali Tribune: The CMA armed groups have categorically rejected the idea of dialogue with the Bamako authorities as part of the peace process. How can the CMA be reintegrated into this dialogue ?

Dr. B. S.: Everything is still possible to save the situation. In a study carried out by the Timbuktu Institute entitled "La parole aux Maliens, pour la réconciliation", the most striking conclusion was the almost natural predisposition of Malians from all walks of life to overcome the most complex situations when the national interest was at stake. As you know, to reach the Algiers Agreements, many concessions had to be made by all parties. It was unhoped-for at the time.

Who can do more can do less, especially as the return of Kidal to the national fold is a new historic phase in the process of uniting Malians. You have to know how to read the signals and decipher the symbols. Mali's overriding interest is national unity, and everyone must work towards this. I am convinced that the authorities, in their quest for lasting peace, will appreciate any effort in this direction, and will be able to favour the spirit of dialogue when it comes to national harmony.

Mali Tribune: As Regional Director of the Timbuktu Institute, do you believe that this inter-malian dialogue can foster peace between Malians ?

Dr. B. S.: I have faith in the ability of Malians to surpass themselves and move forward together. The historic greatness of a country and a people is always a credit towards meeting any challenge. It is a driving force behind the great leaps forward. We need it today. Dialogue is a necessity, but it is also inscribed in the cultural practices of Malians. We, at the Timbuktu Institute, believe that this dialogue must be supported and encouraged because, above all and even beyond the imperative need to meet the pressing challenges in this country, Mali's survival is that of our region. Peace in this pivotal country is peace for everyone.

Mali Tribune: Is this inter-Malian dialogue a strategy to disengage Algerian mediation, as the CMA claims ?

Dr. B. S.: Mali needs all its partners. But no one can impose solutions or know better than Malians what is best for their future together. In our study, "La parole aux Maliens", it emerged that Malians first and foremost always want to talk to each other, because their shared history and culture provide them with the endogenous resources to decipher and agree on what is in the national interest. Helping Mali towards reconciliation means first and foremost supporting inter-malian dialogue. We need to support this dialogue and make it inclusive, a sine qua non for its success.

Mali Tribune: According to diplomatic sources, the President of the Transition is due to visit Algiers. In your opinion, would this visit be crucial for the inter-malian dialogue, given that the CMA took refuge in Algiers after the recapture of Kidal ?  

Dr. B. S.: I don't know anything about it, but this visit would be a major step, especially as the President of the Transition has rarely visited the region. Just as he gave a strong signal in his New Year's speech by calling for dialogue, it is also necessary to safeguard ties with all Mali's neighbors. This is crucial to the stability of both Mali and the region as a whole. We've seen that even Morocco and other countries like Senegal are keen to maintain these good relations, with President Macky Sall's visit in particular being much appreciated at the time.

Timbuktu Institute - January 29

As part of the Observatoire des Réseaux Sociaux set up in partnership with platforms such as Meta, to reflect on the need for action in the face of disinformation and its damaging effects on social cohesion and regional stability, the Timbuktu Institute continues to initiate exchanges and participative discussions. To this end, a regional webinar was held on the theme: "Fighting disinformation: what ethics should be applied to the use of social networks? Moderated by CESTI (Centre d'étude des sciences et techniques de l'information) teacher-researcher Dr. Yacine Diagne, the discussions were led by Ignace Sossou (journalist - Benin), Issifou Habsatou (teacher-researcher - Niger), Massiré Diop (journalist - Mali) and Ziller Djerambété (journalist - Chad).

Disinformation on social networks has become such an evil that it now calls for major remedies. And all players - journalists and the public alike - need to be involved in the debate. "It's important to focus on the issue of digital literacy, enabling people to seek out information, approach it critically and use it for useful purposes. This is also part of our desire to build strong communities, in a safe atmosphere", asserts Olivia Tchamba, Public Policy Manager at Meta. That's why, she continues, "Meta is keen to involve various players in the fight against misinformation, which is a real challenge, in order to have collective solutions, because we are not judges of truth."

At a time when social networks have definitively established themselves as central communication platforms, many questions concerning new journalistic practices are emerging. In a hyper-connected world where information circulates at exponential speed, traditional information transit channels are facing a certain crisis. "It used to be that journalists and press agencies were the main purveyors of information. But today, not only do journalists get their information from social networks, but influencers are sometimes better appreciated too," laments moderator Yacine Diagne.

Chadian journalist Ziller Djérambété agrees. "When a journalist uses social networks as his or her main source of information, it's serious," he insists. He continues: "Everyone is setting themselves up as journalists and not respecting the elementary rules of journalistic treatment. In this age of information disorder, with the triptych Disinformation-Misinformation-Malinformation, news professionals need to have the reflex of critical hindsight and responsibility in the face of information."

Other panelists, like Beninese journalist Ignace Sossou, take a more nuanced view. "I think the real debate is not so much about social networks as such, but more about the quality and treatment of the work of the journalist, who must demonstrate integrity and seek the veracity of information. Social networks can indeed be useful for journalism, in the sense that they can, for example, be the starting point for investigations", he explains. Malian journalist Massiré Diop takes a similar view. In his view, "it's not very ethical. Social networks can be a source of information for journalists, but they shouldn't be the main one. The most important thing is to remain professional." As for jurist Issifou Habsatou, she insists on making it a point of honor that "the question of ethics, understood as a set of rules that must be respected in relation to the exercise of a mission or a profession, is crucial."

A crisis of confidence between traditional media and the public ?

The democratization of social networks has led to a fragmentation of information sources. Today, every Internet user is a potential transmitter of information, which logically tends to undermine the legitimacy of journalists. According to Ziller Djérambété, "communication and journalism are not the same thing. Communication is the preserve of the influencer, who is driven by immediacy, which is not the case with journalistic treatment". Worse still, regrets Beninese journalist Ignace Sossou, "there are influencers who are listened to more than the media. Journalists go beyond simply stating the facts; they can also dig deeper, understand and pinpoint responsibilities. Unfortunately, many media outlets currently behave like communicators, uncritically repeating the official discourse." For jurist Issifou Habsatou, however, it would be interesting to see how to introduce a productive demarcation between communicators and journalists. "People are illiterate. We need to think about complementarity between social networks and traditional media. We mustn't simply pit activists against journalists. What's more, in Niger, since the coup d'état, there's been a real problem regulating speech on social networks", she asserts.

However, debate facilitator Dr. Yacine Diagne persists in her diagnosis of the crisis of confidence. "Let's not kid ourselves", she warns, asserting that this also poses the problem of access to information for journalists. For Ignace Sossou, "it's crucial, but unfortunately it's not uncommon for public administrations to hide information that's supposed to be public. Access to information is a basic citizen's right, not a privilege granted only to journalists. This is all the more worrying in countries in transition, run on military principles where people's rights are neglected." On this subject, jurist Issifou Habsatou believes that in Niger, "the code of ethics in principle gives free access to news sources, so in principle the problem shouldn't arise."

"We need to take a critical look back at the journalistic profession"

While it's important to focus on the noxious atmosphere created by social networks, journalistic practice shouldn't be exempt from reproach, the panelists note. "Nevertheless, we need to review our practices and take a critical look at our profession. Professionalism must take precedence over emotion," admits Yacine Diagne. As for Massiré Diop, he believes that the crisis of confidence mentioned is due, among other things, to the fact that there is "a lack of professionalism. Many journalists are either influencers or activists, voicing their opinions on anything and everything. There's also a problem with certain media who, in order to make a living, become commercial enterprises", he laments. For his part, Ziller Djérambété points out that "a true journalist is one who checks his information before broadcasting it. In Chad, for example, it's people who work for a credible media outlet, or who have a press card, who are recognized as journalists by law."

This brings us to another very important parameter: the economic viability of the media. While all the panelists agree on the precariousness of the media sector, especially in a context of competition with social networks, Ignace Sossou prefers to temper this view: "There's a threat from the point of view of the business model. For his part, Ignace Sossou prefers to temper: "There's a threat from the point of view of the business model. Ads that used to be dedicated to one medium are now dedicated to influencers who have a bigger audience. But from a journalistic content point of view, the question doesn't arise."

Is fact-checking a panacea ?

For some years now, fact-checking has been the most popular way of tracking down fake news. While acknowledging the usefulness of this practice, Yacine Diagne questions its ability to solve the problem. "I think the democratization of fact-checking is a good thing, but my opinion is that its frequency can contribute to a certain trivialization, or even legitimization, of fake news in the public arena. Wouldn't too much fact-checking kill fact-checking?" she asks.

Lawyer Habsatou isn't convinced, however. "I don't think there's enough fact-checking. Do the digital media really practice it? If not, beyond that, I think it's urgent to reinforce the responsibility of content creators", she suggests. An idea echoed by journalist Ignace Sossou, also a fact-checking trainer in Burkina Faso. "Fact-checking is carried out on facts that have a possible impact on communities. We don't fact-check everything. Internet users aren't that naive either; they can sometimes recognize fake news. The problem lies more with cleverly fabricated fake news. Generally speaking, we need to continue and reinforce media education, so that the public can be the primary actor in the credibility of information", he recommends.

In all cases, says Yacine Diagne, "media education is essential. Ignace Sossou suggests that this means making fact-checking tools more widely available to the public: "Fact-checking should not be seen as the preserve of journalists. We need to democratize fact-checking tools," he insists, "to enable the general public, and especially young people, the primary target of fake news, to use them. Fact-checking must be a permanent state of critical mind". Nevertheless, "the current environment is favorable to influencers. Meta pays influencers better than the media", he points out. For this reason, says Nako Mamadjibé, a participant from Chad, "we need to raise awareness of the laws that protect people and institutions against a certain libertinism and digital delinquency." This was echoed by another participant, Kiari Mamadou, who reminded us that "the laws that have been passed on this subject have not been widely publicized."

Disinformation is a scourge that poses a real threat to regional stability, especially in a context marked by a veritable "information war". For Dr. Bakary Sambe, "the impact of such a situation on the media and journalistic work is today exacerbated by the influence of social networks on opinion-making and strategies for conquering media space". Through the Observatoire des Réseaux Sociaux, the Timbuktu Institute is continuing its research and monitoring work, promoting alliances and partnerships between platform managers, influencers and the media to achieve a real preventive strategy and effectively combat disinformation in the Sahel and West Africa.

 Timbuktu Institute - January 29, 2024

Timbuktu Institute, 10/02/2024

The political situation in Senegal is occupying regional and international headlines. The country "traditionally known as a bastion of democracy in Africa" is experiencing an unexpected political situation. The latter has gained momentum between international condemnations and internal protests following the interruption of the electoral process just a few days before a presidential election with enormous stakes. While for many years Senegal has been able to protect itself from the insecurity caused by the terrorist threat, despite being a neighbor to Mali and other countries in crisis, Dr. Bakary Sambe returns in this weekly Timbuktu Institute column to the risks to the country of possible electoral disputes or the violence that could ensue. The regional director of the Timbuktu Institute warns of the various risks documented in a new report to be published in the next few days. Speaking on the pan-African channel Medi1TV, he calls on the authorities and the political class to shoulder their responsibilities and to subscribe to the conditions for a peaceful political environment, as a prerequisite for pursuing the democratic trajectory of a country whose strategic positioning also exposes it to international rivalries and the most diverse forms of covetousness. He answers questions from Sanae Yassari.

Dr. Bakary Sambe, since the start of the electoral process in Senegal, you have been warning of the risks and dangers associated with disputes and litigation. The current situation, with the postponement of the presidential election to December 15, has made the Senegalese political scene even more complex and tense. In your opinion, what risks could such a situation expose this country, which has long been a model of democracy on the continent?

First of all, it must be said that it is most unfortunate that Senegal, known for its long tradition of democracy, has reached the point where a presidential election is being postponed just a few weeks before the ballot. The conflict-ridden and contentious nature of the current electoral process not only poses a serious threat to peace and security, but may also jeopardize the very viability of democracy for a long time to come. It is to be feared that the political violence that could result from a contentious electoral process could lead to instability in the sub-regional political and security environment. Our studies in Africa show that between 1994 and 2012, violence linked solely to disputed electoral processes directly caused over 5,000 deaths and several hundred thousand displaced persons and refugees, not to mention the enormous destruction and hundreds of thousands of victims of civil wars triggered by electoral disputes. Senegal needs to get its act together.

But Dr. Sambe, you seem to insist on the particular case of Senegal, referring to the regional security situation which, in your opinion, would make this now contentious electoral process an aggravating risk factor that could further expose Senegal and its stability. Could you elaborate on this aspect, which seems to have escaped many analysts?

On a strictly internal level, the systematic association of political violence with contentious electoral processes means that, by the date set, there will already be an increase in the level of political risk, putting a brake on foreign direct private investment, tourist flows and economic activity in general, not to mention the increased vulnerability of our borders. Let's not forget that the current Malian crisis is, to some extent, the result of a combination of an internal political crisis and a security crisis that took advantage of institutional instability. While our country remains a luxury target, the dream target of the terrorist movements that have destabilized the region, this is not the time to get bogged down in a political crisis that could persist, a situation fraught with risks and which would plunge our country into the worst uncertainties.

So, faced with this unexpected situation in the country, what should be done to avoid, and I quote, "a stalemate that would precipitate the country's tipping towards electoral violence and expose it further to security threats at a time when the regional situation remains most worrying"?

In order to protect Senegal from instability, we urgently need to take a proactive approach, despite all considerations, and aim first and foremost for a consensual political framework as a prerequisite for preserving democracy, peace and stability. We must not run the risk of electoral violence which, combined with the jihadist threat on our doorstep, would plunge Senegal into instability. The region doesn't need another crisis. Did you know that between 1994 and 2007, more than 5,500 people were killed in contentious electoral processes in ten sub-Saharan African countries, including South Africa, Nigeria and Congo Brazzaville, not to mention the millions displaced? The political class in all its diversity, and first and foremost the President of the Republic, must be called upon to engage in urgent, but sincere and inclusive dialogue. Despite the gravity of the situation, we should perhaps not despair of the intelligence of the political class in all its diversity, so that at all costs we can avoid a stalemate that would be damaging not only to Senegal's stability, but also to regional peace and security.

Source : Timbuktu Institute.

معهد تمبكتو- 7 فبراير 20224

إن الوضع السياسي في السنغال يشهد تصعيدا مقلقا لغاية أنه يستحوذ على الصفحات الأولى من الأخبار الإقليمية والدولية، وهذا البلد الذي كان " معروفا بتقاليده الديمقراطية العريقة " يعيش اليوم أزمة سياسية متوترة تنطوي على توقف العملية الانتخابية قبل أيام قليلة من تاريخ إجراء الانتخابات، مما أسفر عن زخم نادر من إدانات دولية واحتجاجات محلية. إن السنغال قد تمكن من حماية نفسه منذ سنوات طويلة من التهديدات الأمنية والإرهابية في المنطقة بالرغم من كونه جارا لدول عانت أزمات أمنية خطيرة كما شوهد في دولة (مالي)

 وفي مقابلة أجراها مع الصحفية سناء ياسري، في قناة (ميدي 1 تيفي)، ركز الدكتور باكري صمب على مخاطر وأعمال العنف التي من المحتمل أن تتولد من النزاعات الانتخابية، وحذر في تقرير سينشره " معهد تمبكو " في الأيام المقبلة من مختلف التهديدات والمخاطر التي قد تنجم عن العملية الانتخابية وتسهم في الإخلال بالأمن في البلاد، ودعا الكيانات والطبقة السياسية إلى تحديد التدابير التي يمكنها ضمان السلام الذي هو الركن الأساسي لاستمرار المسار الديمقراطي في البلاد علما بأن موقع السنغال الاستراتيجي يعرضه للمنافسات الدولية والأطماع المتنوعة

منذ بداية العملية الانتخابية في السنغال، ما زلتَ تجذب الانتباه إلى المخاطر التي قد تنشأ من التنافس في العملية الانتخابية، لكن تأجيل الانتخابات إلى 15 ديسمبر 2024 جعل المشهد السياسي أكثر تعقيدا وتوترا: ما هي المخاطر التي يمكن أن يتعرض لها السنغال الذي كان لفترة طويلة نموذجا للديمقراطية في القارة؟

لا بد من التأكيد في أول وهلة أن من المؤسف جدا أن السنغال المعروف بتقاليد ديمقراطية عريقة يصل إلى هذه الحالة من الخلافات والمنافسات حتى يتم تأجيل الانتخابات الرئاسية التي كان من المقرر إجراؤها بعد أسابيع قليلة. إن النزعات التي اتسمت بها العملية الانتخابية لا تشكل تهديدا خطيرا للسلم والأمن فحسب، بل يمكن أن تعرض للخطر قدرة الديمقراطية على البقاء والصمود لفترة طويلة، كما أنه من الممكن أن يؤدي إلى عنف سياسي يساهم في زعزعة البلاد وتعريض البيئة السياسية والأمنية دون الإقليمية للخطر. ويظهر في دراساتنا حول أفريقيا أنه في الفترة من 1994 إلى 2012، تسبب تعقيد العنف المتصل فقط بالعمليات الانتخابية بشكل مباشر في مقتل أكثر من 5000 شخص ونزوح مئات آلاف من السكان، ناهيك عن الدمار الهائل ومئات آلاف من ضحايا الحروب الأهلية، ولذلك إن البلد في حاجة ملحة إلى وضع نهـج يتضمن بذل جهود الوساطة والمساعي الحميدة للعمل من أجل صيانته من آثار الانتخابات على الأمن والديمقراطية

تركز على حالة السنغال عندما تتحدث عن الوضع الأمني الإقليمي، لأن العملية الانتخابية التي تثير الجدل تشكل عاملا يمكن أن يزيد من تعريض البلد للخطر وانعدام الأمن، هل يمكن الرجوع إلى هذه النقطة التي لم تجذب اهتمام العديد من المحللين؟

إذا ركزنا اهتمامنا على المستوي المحلي فقط فإننا نرى أن العنف السياسي المحيط بالعمليات الانتخابية المتنازع عليها في السنغال سيزداد خطورة وتأزما، وهذه الخطورة السياسية ستستمر إلى وقت انعقاد الانتخابات القادمة، مما يشارك في كبح وعرقلة الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر بكشب خاص، والتدفقات السياحية، والنشاط الاقتصادي بشكل عام، فضلًا عن تضعيف الحدود. جدير بنا التذكير بأن أزمة (مالي) الحالية اندلعتْ نوعا ما نتيجة لمزيج من أزمة سياسية داخلية وأزمة أمنية تفاقمت مع عدم الاستقرار المؤسسي. وكلنا نعلم أن السنغال يشكل هدفا حقيقيا للحركات الإرهابية التي زعزعت استقرار المنطقة، ولذلك، فإن الفترة التي نشهدها ليست مواتية للتورط في أزمات سياسية قد تطول وتحفل بمخاطر قد تدفع البلاد إلى أسوأ حالات الارتياب والشكوك

ما الذي ينبغي عمله أمام هذا الوضع الفريد لتصدي خطر " الانزلاق في العنف الانتخابي " ؟

يضطلع دعم وصون السلام والأمن في السنغال والحفاظ على الديمقراطية والاستقرار في حمل الأطراف المتنافسة على اتخاذ كافة التدابير اللازمة لوضع إطار سياسي وبناء توافق الآراء مع متطلبات جميع الجهات الفاعلة، والأخذ في الاعتبار أهمية إنتاج صياغات سابقة لحل النزاعات ومنع نشوب العنف الانتخابي الذي -إضافة إلى التهديدات الأخرى- من شأنه أن يدخل البلد في حالة من عدم الاستقرار، ولاسيما أن المنطقة لا ترغب في أزمة أخرى. وفيما بين عامي 1994 و2007، أدت النزاعات الانتخابية في اثني عشر بلدا أفريقيا جنوب الصحراء الكبرى، بما في ذلك جنوب إفريقيا ونيجيريا والكونغو برازافيل، إلى مقتل أكثر من 5500 شخصا وملايين النازحين! وإذا نظرنا إلى هذا الوضع، يتعين علينا دعوة الطبقة السياسية بمختلف مكوناتها - وفي المقام الأول رئيس الجمهورية - إلى التخطيط بعناية لتنظيم حوار صادق وشامل يسمح بإعادة النظر إلى عيوب العملية الانتخابية وإيحاد حلول شافية لها لتعافي البلاد من الكوارث. حتى وإن كان الوقت خطير، لا ينبغي لنا أن نيأس من ذكاء الطبقة السياسية في تنوعها وعبقرية السلطات في إيجاد حلول تقي البلاد من الانزلاق في عنف انتخابي يضر باستقرار السنغال والسلام والأمن الإقليميين

Timbuktu Institute, 07/02/2024

La situation politique au Sénégal occupe l’actualité régionale et internationale. Le pays « traditionnellement connu comme un bastion de la démocratie en Afrique » est en train de vivre une crise politique inattendue. Cette dernière a pris de l’ampleur entre les condamnations internationales et les protestations internes suite à l’interruption du processus électoral à quelques jours d’un scrutin présidentiel aux énormes enjeux. Alors que depuis des années le Sénégal a pu se prémunir de l’insécurité due à la menace terroriste bien que voisin du Mali et de pays en crise, Dr. Bakary Sambe revient, dans cette chronique hebdomadaire du Timbuktu Institute sur les risques que font encourir au pays d’éventuels litiges électoraux ou des violences qui pourraient en découler. Le directeur régional du Timbuktu Institute alerte sur les différents risques documentés à travers un nouveau rapport à paraître ces prochains jours. Il en appelle, sur la chaîne panafricaines Medi1TV, à la responsabilité des autorités et de la classe politique qui doivent souscrire aux conditions d’un champ politique apaisé en tant que préalable à la poursuite de la trajectoire démocratique de ce pays que le positionnement stratégique expose en même temps aux rivalités internationales et aux convoitises les plus diverses. Il répond aux questions de Sanae Yassari. 

Dr. Bakary Sambe, depuis le début du processus électoral au Sénégal, vous avertissiez sur les risques et dangers liés aux litiges et contentieux. La situation actuelle, avec le report de la présidentielle au 15 décembre, vient rendre plus complexe et tendue la scène politique sénégalaise. Selon-vous, à quels risques une telle situation peut-elle exposer ce pays qui était pendant longtemps un modèle de démocratie sur le continent ?

D’abord, il faut dire qu’il est tout à fait malheureux que le Sénégal, connu pour sa longue tradition démocratique en arrive à cette situation où l’on reporte une élection présidentielle à quelques semaines du scrutin. La tendance conflictuelle et litigieuse du processus électoral actuel représente non seulement une sérieuse menace à la paix et la sécurité, mais elle peut mettre, pour longtemps, en péril la viabilité même de la démocratie. Il faut craindre que la violence politique pouvant découler d’un processus électoral litigieux puisse déboucher sur de l’instabilité au regard de l’environnement politico-sécuritaire sous-régional. Nos études en Afrique établissent que de 1994 à 2012, les violences liées uniquement aux processus électoraux litigieux ont directement causé plus 5000 morts et plusieurs centaines de milliers de personnes déplacées et de réfugiés, sans compter les destructions énormes et les centaines de milliers de victimes des guerres civiles déclenchées à l’issue de contentieux électoraux. On doit donc se ressaisir au Sénégal.

Mais Dr Sambe vous semblez insister sur le cas particulier du Sénégal en évoquant la situation sécuritaire régionale qui, selon-vous, ferait de ce processus électoral désormais litigieux un facteur de risque aggravant pouvant davantage exposer le Sénégal et sa stabilité. Pourriez-vous revenir sur cet aspect qui semblerait échapper à beaucoup d'analystes ?

Sur un plan strictement interne, l’association systématique de la violence politique aux processus électoraux litigieux, fait que d’ici la date fixée, il y aura, déjà, une augmentation du niveau de risque politique portant un coup de frein à l’investissement direct privé étranger, aux flux touristiques et à l’activité économique d’une manière générale sans parler de l’accroissement des vulnérabilités à nos frontières. Souvenons-nous que la crise malienne actuelle est, quelque part, la résultante d’une conjugaison entre une crise politique interne et une crise sécuritaire qui a profité de l’instabilité institutionnelle. Pendant que notre pays demeure la cible de luxe, la cible rêvée des mouvements terroristes qui ont déstabilisé la région, ce n’est pas le moment de s’enliser dans une crise politique qui puisse perdurer, une situation lourde de risques et qui plongerait notre pays dans les pires incertitudes.

Alors, Face à cette situation inattendue dans ce pays, que faudrait-il faire pour éviter, je vous cite "un enlisement qui précipiterait le basculement du pays vers une violence électorale et l'exposerait davantage aux menaces sécuritaires alors que la situation régionale demeure des plus préoccupantes" ?

Dans le but de prémunir le Sénégal de l’instabilité, il faut, urgemment, en dépit de toutes les considérations, s’inscrire dans une démarche proactive et viser, d’abord, un cadre politique consensuel comme préalable à la préservation de la démocratie, de la paix et de la stabilité. Il ne faudrait pas prendre le risque de tomber dans une violence électorale qui, combinée aux menaces djihadistes à nos portes, plongerait le Sénégal dans l’instabilité. La région n’a pas besoin d’une crise supplémentaire. Savez-vous qu’entre 1994 et 2007 le bilan des pertes humaines causés par les acteurs des processus électoraux litigieux dans une dizaine de pays d’Afrique sub-saharienne, notamment en Afrique Sud, au Nigeria, Congo Brazzaville, est établi à plus de 5 500, sans compter les millions de personnes déplacées. Il faut interpeller la classe politique dans sa diversité et en premier lieu le Président de la République sur la nécessité d’un dialogue urgent, mais sincère et inclusif. Malgré la gravité de l’heure, il ne faudrait, peut-être pas désespérer de l’intelligence de la classe politique dans sa diversité pour qu’à tout prix, on puisse éviter un enlisement dommageable pour la stabilité du Sénégal mais aussi la paix et la sécurité régionale.

Source : Timbuktu Institute